Credit Crunch and Target Capital Structure: Empirical Studies Based on Natural Experimentin China

Abstract:

Data from China’s credit crunch, which started in 2007, is utilized to establish a natural experiment to investigate the impact of the credit crunch on target capital structures. The sample consists of 1,128 listed companies in China during the period 2000–2011. The interest-bearing debt to total assets ratio is used as a representative indicator for capital structures. The results indicate that the credit crunch was associated with a decrease in the target debt ratios for all listed companies. Small firms, privately owned enterprises, and firms with weak mortgage capabilities responded more sensitively to the credit crunch by showing a substantial decrease in target debt ratios.     

Earnings management of initial public offering firms: evidence from regulation changes in China

Discretionary current accruals of Chinese initial public offering (IPO) firms decreased after the abolition of fixed‐price offering systems that directly linked offering price to reported earnings. Results suggest IPO firms that decrease managerial ownership manage earnings upward during the fixed‐price offering period, but this relationship disappeared after the introduction of a book‐building system. We also find that bank debt is negatively related to discretionary current accruals during the fixed‐price offering period, but no relation exists for the book‐building period. Leverage has a significant positive relationship with earnings management. However, this finding is potentially attributable to nonoffering price objectives or endogeneity biases.     

Risk assessment for public–private partnership projects: using a fuzzy analytic hierarchical process method and expert opinion in China

Public–private partnerships (PPP) have been widely used in China to procure public facilities and services. Complicated problems in PPP projects in China arise because of a variety of risk factors. A proper risk assessment model is needed to identify risks and provide risk response strategies for future Chinese PPP projects. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) method provides the ability to solve complex risk assessment of PPP projects. Current risk assessment models are limited to PPP projects in specific countries and do not consider unique risks in China, especially political, economic, social, and legal risks. This paper designed a risk evaluation index system for PPP projects based on the Delphi expert investigation method, and then established an optimized risk evaluation model for PPP projects in China using the F-AHP method. The risks identified are confirmed by interviewing experts from Chinese local government departments, private enterprise, third-party intermediary consulting and regulatory agencies, and academic organizations. The results show that the risks that ranked among the top ten are closely related to China’s political and economic policies and relationships among stakeholders. It can be concluded that government authorities play a critical role in providing a favorable political, social, and economic environment and an effective institutional framework for PPP projects. Furthermore, it is also important to deal with relationships among stakeholders based on the public–private ‘win–win’ principle. This study provides risk response strategies, addressing key issues from eight aspects: an impeccable legal and regulatory framework; a central coordinating and regulating PPP authority; supportive governmental authorities; institutional capacity-building; favorable economic conditions and viability; community, partner, and moral accountability; clear division of responsibilities through contracts; and effective advisory management. These effective measures may be useful in reducing the adverse effects of risk for PPP projects in China.     

The Resource Curse Hypothesis: Dynamic Heterogeneous Approach

Natural resources influence economic performance through many different mechanisms, both beneficial and harmful. Some of these mechanisms tend to set in fast while others are rather slow. This suggests that pooling the long- and short-run effect as typical in the resource empirical literature may lead to incorrect inferences. This article provides an evaluation of the income contribution of natural resources using a panel cointegration approach that allows for short-run dynamic heterogeneity while imposing the restriction of long-run homogeneity. It finds, in a sample of developing countries over the period 1990–2012, that natural resources are a curse in the long run. The evidence is robust to alternative dynamic specifications, different measures and types of natural resource wealth, and controlling for regional effects.     

The Impact of Institutions and Exchange Rate Volatility on China’s Outward FDI

Over the past decade, China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has rapidly increased. However, its characteristics are not sufficiently studied. In this article, we explore the host country’s determinants of China’s OFDI, with a focus on institutional quality, exchange rate volatility, and natural resources by performing an econometric analysis for the period 2003–2013 for a sample of 49 countries. Our results reveal that China’s OFDI is invested in countries with relatively poor institutional quality and abundant natural resources. Exchange rate variability has a dampening effect on China’s OFDI and that the appreciation of the Chinese renminbi enhances OFDI flows.     

Option pricing based on hybrid GARCH-type models with improved ensemble empirical mode decomposition

The exploration of option pricing is of great significance to risk management and investments. One important challenge to existing research is how to describe the underlying asset price process and fluctuation features accurately. Considering the benefits of ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) in depicting the fluctuation features of financial time series, we construct an option pricing model based on the new hybrid generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (hybrid GARCH)-type functions with improved EEMD by decomposing the original return series into the high frequency, low frequency and trend terms. Using the locally risk-neutral valuation relationship (LRNVR), we obtain an equivalent martingale measure and option prices with different maturities based on Monte Carlo simulations. The empirical results indicate that this novel model can substantially capture volatility features and it performs much better than the M-GARCH and Black–Scholes models. In particular, the decomposition is consistently helpful in reducing option pricing errors, thereby proving the innovativeness and effectiveness of the hybrid GARCH option pricing model.     

基于层次分析法的信息系统安全评价研究

利用层次分析法(AHP)的原理与方法,提出了信息系统安全评价指标体系,建立综合分析评价模型,采用向量范数法对判断矩阵进行优化。描述了信息系统安全评价的方法和流程,计算出评价指标的综合权重。通过实例说明这一模型能对信息系统安全等级进行综合评价。     

华北地区某污水处理厂升级改造工程实例

华北地区某城市污水处理厂升级改造工程处理规模为50万t/d,原设计为A/O脱氮工艺,执行《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》(GB 18918-2002)二级排放标准。由于近年来进水水质严重恶化以及对污水排放标准的提高,需对原污水处理系统进行改造,通过技术方案对比,在原生物处理段增加厌氧池,使之变为A2/O脱氮除磷,新增深度处理工艺为反硝化生物滤池-加砂沉淀池-滤布滤池-紫外消毒,使出水水质达到一级A排放标准。     

生产高缩率膨体毛条的两种技术

为了提高高缩率腈纶膨体毛条(简称高缩条)的缩率,以满足纺织企业研发新产品的要求,采用两种腈纶长丝原料及分别优化的拉断机工艺,对高缩条缩率的影响进行了试验。试验结果表明:采用高缩率长丝原料可有效提高高缩条的缩率,生产出缩率大于28%的高缩条新产品。     

服装工艺模板结构设计原理与制作

服装模板缝制技术目前在服装生产流程有着比较重要的作用,其模板工艺的成败直接关系到产品质量的整体水平,传统的车工工艺需要较长的时间在实践中获得技艺的提升,工艺模板对于传统的缝制工艺是一种创新和改进。可以起到节约成本、提高生产效率、提高产品质量的作用。