全球化的测度与比较

本文通过构造全球化指数,测度全球122个国家或地区1998至2004年的相对全球化水平,并以此对各经济体全球化水平进行排序和分析。除亚洲的新加坡和中国香港外,全球化程度高的经济体基本上为欧洲和北美等发达国家。发展中国家的全球化发展水平大大低于发达国家。     

Is it all about awareness? The normalization of coastal risk

Coastal risk is already high in several parts of the world and is expected to be amplified by climate change, which makes it necessary to outline effective risk management strategies. Risk managers assume that increasing awareness of coastal risk is the key to public support and endorsement of risk management strategies – an assumption that underlies a common worldview on the public understanding of science, which has been named the deficit model. We argue that the effects of awareness are not as straightforward. In particular, awareness of coastal hazards might not lead to more technically accurate risk perceptions. Based on research on risk perception normalization, we explored the hypothesis that coastal risk awareness reduces coastal risk perception – in particular the perceived likelihood of occurrence of coastal hazards – through its effect on reliance on protective measures to prevent risk. Individuals can rely on protective measures, even when those are not effective, as a positive illusion to reduce risk perception. This effect might be stronger for higher probability hazards and for permanent residents of costal zones. Data from 410 individuals living in coastal zones corroborated most of our expectations. Global results demonstrated a risk normalization effect mediated by reliance on current measures. Additional analyses made clear that this effect occurred in 2 of the 5 high-probability hazards (flood and storm), and not in the low-probability hazard (tsunami). Normalization might be more likely among high-probability hazards which entail catastrophic and immediate impacts. This effect was also found among permanent residents, but not among temporary residents. Results imply that coastal risk management might benefit from (a) taking risk perception normalization effects into account, (b) tailoring strategies for permanent and temporary residents and (c) promoting a higher public engagement, which would facilitate a more adaptive and effective coping with coastal risk than the use of positive illusions.     

Time zone normalization of FX seasonality

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence that the particular intra-day seasonality observed in the Foreign Exchange market is indeed due to the different geographical locations of its traders. Analysing more than 2 years of real transactions from a microscopic perspective, we design a procedure that accounts for the time zones from which traders operate. The resulting normalized intra-day seasonality shows a pattern akin to those observed in regulated exchanges where traders are more active at the beginning and at the end of their session.     

数据库范式应用实例剖析

范式是符合某一种级别的关系模式的集合。最基本的数据库范式有三个,第一范式(1NF),第二范式(2NF)和第三范式(3NF)。文章介绍了范式相关概念、1范式和2范式存在的问题和模式分解的方法。文章首先给出一个达到1范式的关系模式,分析里面存在的函数依赖,并分析了该模式存在的诸多问题。然后将此1范式分解为若干2范式。进而将2范式转换成若干3范式。通过模式分解在一定程度上解决了1NF存在的数据冗余大和插入异常、删除异常及其修改异常等问题。     

中美关系正常化过程中的苏联因素

20世纪70年代很多因素促成了中美关系的正常化。苏联作为社会主义阵营的领导者,在中美关系正常化的过程中发挥了重要的作用。本文将用史论结合的方法对中、美、苏三国关系进行分析,探索中美关系正常化过程中的苏联因素。     

常态化疫情防控下跨境物流行业发展态势与对策

我国目前处于常态化疫情防控阶段,跨境物流行业在后疫情时代下有更广阔的发展前景和行业发展潜力。我国为了更好地顺应当下数字化发展,缓解疫情带来的损失,提出了构建国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。基于此,针对目前跨境物流行业存在信息不对称、物流成本高的难题,文章提出采取多行业协同发展、加强数字化渗入跨境物流行业、增加海外仓的建设、打造联盟式的生态网络等针对性措施,使跨境物流行业在数字化发展潮流中稳步前行。     

两岸经贸合作机制探讨及近期现实选择

经贸合作日益成为两岸各界关注的焦点,但是学者们在两岸经贸合作机制选择方面有很大分歧。大陆和台湾同为WTO成员,两岸经贸合作的底线是遵守WTO规则,最高边界是最惠国待遇原则许可的范围。合作底线和最高边界所围成的空间,就是两岸可以选择制度空间。作者认为两岸共同市场是当前两岸最现实的选择,考虑到两岸特殊的政治经济现实,近期的目标应该定位在实现经贸关系正常化。     

中部五省省会城市科技竞争力研究

文章通过对科技投入、科技产出、科技潜力、科技与经济和社会协调发展、科技外向性等方面的考核,参考产业竞争力和城市竞争力综合评价指标体系,以中部五省省会城市科技竞争力为研究对象,利用归一化法对各城市1996年和2003年的科技竞争力进行综合评价和比较研究,为各城市科技产     

一种改进的基于3D-BN-GRU网络的行为识别算法

行为识别是计算机视觉研究一大热点，为了改善其计算量大、识别率低的问题，提出了一种基于三维卷积神经网络(3Dimension Convolutionnal Neural Network，3D-CNN)与门控循环单元网络(Gated Recurrent Unit，GRU)相融合的行为识别算法。该算法采用keras框架，首先对3D-CNN结构进行优化，采用把大的卷积核用若干个小的串联起来的Block结构；然后在每层卷积层后采用批量归一化处理，并添加Dropout层以提高网络泛化能力；最后与GRU网络融合，使用Softmax进行分类得出结果。实验结果表明，所设计的融合网络有较高的识别率，达到94.5%。     

Keynote Speech: Federal Reserve Policy in the Post-Crisis Period

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) engaged in a series of extraordinary monetary policy actions in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008 to support economic activity in the United States. Interest rates were lowered to their effective lower bound and the Fed’s balance sheet was greatly expanded through a series of large-scale asset purchase programs. As the U.S. economy has recovered, “normalization” of monetary policy (which will be data-dependent) has drawn closer. This article reviews some factors that may impact the post-normalization course of monetary policy.