A CGE analysis of oil price change

As Chinese economy system has been depended more on the import of petroleum with the development of China, the change in the price of international oil have caused concern among economists and policy makers. This paper is to present a financial Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy which integrates real economy and financial sectors, and to apply it to quantitatively evaluate the impacts on Chinese economy caused by international oil price changes. And the model endogenously determines the exchange rate, covering fixed, partially flexible, and completely flexile exchange rate system to consider the effect of foreign oil price changes from the point of view of macro and industrial aspects. Finally, this paper presents concluding remarks.     

沙盘模拟在物流管理专业教学实践中的应用研究

针对当前物流管理专业人才培养存在的问题,把物流沙盘引入到实践性教学环节,阐述沙盘模拟在物流管理专业教学中的应用,介绍了教学内容、教学方法,并提出相应的课程考核方法。实践表明,物流沙盘有助于学生加深对物流系统的理解,提高学习兴趣,增强教学效果,为物流管理专业人才培养提供新思路。     

基于系统动力学的MTS、MTO供应链性能仿真分析

考察由制造商和零售商构成的二级供应链上,按库存生产(Make-to-stock,MTS)和按订单生产(Make-to-order,MTO)两种模式的供应链系统性能。通过系统动力学建立MTS和MTO供应链的系统仿真模型,从仿真结果中发现,虽然采用MTS供应链模式的零售商相对MTO供应链模式零售商保持较低的成品库存,但整个供应链系统上,MTO供应链库存要低于MTS的供应链库存。MTO供应链对客户需求变动的响应性更强,但设备利用率要低于MTS的设备利用率。     

铁路军事运输保障作战模拟不完全信息动态博弈模型研究

通过分析战时铁路军事运输过程中的博弈问题,提出了基于红蓝对抗的不完全信息动态博弈,并构建了相应的博弈模型,通过模拟实验分析单列车梯队的不完全信息动态博弈过程。     

A numerical study of tournament structure and seeding policy for the soccer World Cup Finals

Tournament outcome uncertainty depends on: the design of the tournament; and the relative strengths of the competitors – the competitive balance. A tournament design comprises the arrangement of the individual matches, which we call the tournament structure, the seeding policy and the progression rules. In this paper, we investigate the effect of seeding policy for various tournament structures, while taking account of competitive balance. Our methodology uses tournament outcome uncertainty to consider the effect of seeding policy and other design changes. The tournament outcome uncertainty is measured using the tournament outcome characteristic which is the probability P_q,R that a team in the top 100q pre‐tournament rank percentile progresses forward from round R, for all q and R. We use Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the values of this metric. We find that, in general, seeding favours stronger competitors, but that the degree of favouritism varies with the type of seeding. Reseeding after each round favours the strong to the greatest extent. The ideas in the paper are illustrated using the soccer World Cup Finals tournament.     

VMI模式下最优订货点的仿真研究

通过VMI模式下订货流程的模拟,根据客户订货前置期的历史统计数据或分布函数,利用Arena软件求解配送中心最优订货点。研究表明,仿真分析能获得比常规数学方法更科学合理的最优订货点。     

AN ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING CROSS DOCKING OPERATIONS

Using simulation, we examine the decisions in moving freight between inbound and outbound trailers in a cross dock. The decisions examined include direct versus indirect handling of pallets, number of open receiving doors, door layout, number of forklifts, size of cross dock and freight mix. This study provides useful insights on handling freight in a cross dock.     

电子商务实训课程教学改革与探索

高职院校电子商务实训课程教学应增加实战训练环节,通过Internet网上电子商务的交易开展实战训练,使学生真正掌握电子商务交易的流程,培养其成为电子商务行业的职业操手。     

Making Good Decisions with Minimal Information: Simultaneous and Sequential Choice

The adaptive pressures facing humans and other animals to make decisions quickly can be met both by increasing internal information-processing speed and by minimizing the amount of information to be used. Here we focus on the latter effect and ask how, and how well, agents can make good decisions with a minimal amount of information, using two specific tasks as examples. When a choice must be made between simultaneously-available options, minimal information in the form of binary recognition (whether or not each item is recognized) can be used in the recognition heuristic to choose effectively. When options are encountered sequentially one at a time, minimal information as to whether or not each option is the best encountered so far is sufficient to guide agents using a simple search-cutoff rule to high performance along several choice criteria. Both of these examples have important economic as well as biological applications, and show the power of simple fast and frugal heuristics to produce good decisions with little information. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

On the performance of the Chow-Lin procedure for quarterly interpolation of annual data: Some Monte-Carlo analysis

Most of the countries of the OECD offer quarterly estimates of their national growth or of their Gross National Product. Official Statistical Agencies in western countries have to deal with the problem of estimating Quarterly National Accounts series congruently with Annual National Accounts. In Spain, the Instituto Nacional de Estadística uses the Chow-Lin disaggregation method, which is based on information provided by a group of high-frequency related variables, to estimate the quarterly components of National Accounts from annual components. In this paper, we analyse the relative quality of the estimates obtained through the Chow-Lin procedure, under different sets of hypotheses.JEL Classification: C15, C43, M40We are grateful to Maria Amparo Ripoll for her assistance. The authors also wish to thank three anonymous referees and an editor for their constructive suggestions and comments. This research was partially made during the stay of the first author at the Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. It has been partially supported by the research project DGCYT PB98-1460.