Financial Stability in European Banking: The Role of Common Factors

In this paper, I investigate the development and determinants of CDS spreads for 18 major European banks between December 2001 and January 2004 applying factor analysis to daily data. Two clear-cut conclusions can be drawn. First, the dominating first common factor that explains 88 percent of all variation in the system, impacts on all banks in a similar direction. This suggests a strong market integration. However the size of the response of each bank’s CDS spread to the first common factor differs substantially, probably reflecting differences in individual bank’s exposure and riskiness. Second, the first common factor appears significantly related to the European P/E ratio and the European-wide 2-year nominal interest rate. This finding suggests that the common factor may be interpreted as a general indicator of market conditions. JEL Classification Numbers: G12, G15, G21, C30     

重塑二元金融结构下的农村金融

中国目前的金融结构具有明显的二元性。二元金融结构对中国农村发展产生严重的负面影响。要从根本上解决中国“三农”问题,必须重塑二元金融结构下的农村金融,充分发挥农村金融的“资金催化剂”作用。     

政府投资项目代建制的财政和财务管理工作探讨

代建制作为一种新的建设模式,克服了“投、建、管、用”四位一体的政府投资工程管理模式所带来的非专业化、低效率、低质量等弊端,通过专业化、集中化和市场化的管理,实现投资控制,保证质量和工期。但代建制是有相应的配套制度作保障的,如果制度不配套,依然会存在风险。在新的政府协调干预机制下———建筑工务局的成立,探讨如何搞好代建制的财政财务管理工作。     

美国个人理财服务及对我国的启示

个人理财行为是社会经济发展到一定阶段的产物,个人理财需求的出现促进了个人理财服务市场的产生。我国应借鉴美国个人理财服务发展的经验,培育和开拓国内个人理财服务市场,可从以下方面入手:开展国民理财教育,改变我国居民过于保守的理财观念;完善风险控制机制,加强监管;突破经营分业困境,创新理财产品;培养专业人才、构建良好服务体系等。     

China＇s Current Real Estate Cycle and Potential Financial Risks

I. Introduction Since the late 1990s, the debate on China’s current real estate cycle has aroused great attention. The People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, initiated a series of macroeconomic management policies to prevent the real estate market from overheating. Since the real estate bubble in the early 1990s, the Chinese Government is conscious to attach great importance to the possible financial risks and corresponding shocks to China’s economy of the real estate market ove…     

利率市场化背景下银行系统性危机的实证研究

从利率市场化的国际经验来看,无论是在发达国家还是发展中国家,其实施过程都容易导致不同程度的银行业危机。采用1973~2012年42个国家的面板数据,对利率市场化背景下的银行业危机进行的实证研究表明：利率市场化的推进将增加银行系统性危机发生的机率,特别是在存款利率市场化阶段,而严格的银行监管是抑制银行系统危机发生的有效方法;显性存款保险制度的设立无助于利率市场化后银行系统性风险的防范,甚至有可能会增加危机发生的机率;资本账户开放下进行利率市场化会增加银行系统危机发生的机率。利率市场化进程中允许开设民营银行不会增加银行系统危机的发生机率。     

基于资源依赖理论的企业财权配置三维模式

传统财权配置以“资本雇佣劳动”逻辑为依托,体现的是“股东至上”的价值导向.在知识化时代,财务资源已由单一物质资源拓展为物质资源、人力资源和顾客资源的集合,根据资源依赖理论,企业的财权应该在股东、员工和顾客之间进行合理配置.由股东、员工和顾客分享企业财权的三维模式,以利益相关者利益的协调为重点,实现关键利益相关者决策的共同参与和监督的相互制约.     

"长三角"区域金融风险分析

在对区域金融风险本质特征和影响因素进行分析的基础上,构造评价指标体系并用粗集方法约简、根据模糊数层次模型(FAHP)对"长三角"区域两省一市的金融稳定状况进行比较分析.     

The Effects of Central Banks’ Rate Change Patterns on Financial Market Variables

This study examines whether different patterns of change to the benchmark interest rates of central banks are associated with their contributions to variances in the forecast errors of three financial market variables: the long-term interest rate, the foreign exchange rate, and the stock market index. On average, the central bank’s interest rate accounts for approximately 20% of the variance in each variable. We find that the total range of changes is more important than the frequency of changes. The panel regression shows that the range and frequency of policy rate changes is positively associated with the volatility of long-term interest rates but no association with the volatility of stock prices and exchange rates. These results suggest that small and frequent adjustments of policy rates are desirable for reducing the volatility of interest rates. The panel VAR represents interest rate channel is a more important than exchange rate and stock price channel.