Evaluating the impact of rising fertilizer prices on crop yields

Because of tensions on fossil energy and phosphorus markets, the rise in fertilizer prices observed during the last decades may continue in the future, putting into question production pathways relying heavily on crop intensification. To evaluate how, in this context, economic choices may alter crop yields, we first construct different fertilizer price scenarios to 2050 based on an econometric relation with oil and gas prices. Other possible scenarios, such as the continuation of historical trends, are also considered. The resulting changes in fertilizer price range between +0.8% and +3.6% per year over the 2005–2050 period. These scenarios are tested in a global land‐use model incorporating an endogenous representation of the land–fertilizer substitution. We find that the supply‐side response to rising fertilizer prices could lower crop yields in 2050 from ?6% to ?13%, with a corresponding increase in global cropland area ranging between 100 and 240 Mha if the demand for food and nonfood products has to be met. The sensitivity of these results is tested with regard to assumptions on food consumption, change in potential yield and nutrient use efficiency.     

有机波谱分析课程教学改革的探索与实践

简要介绍了有机波谱分析课程的教学内容、目的、任务及应用,重点介绍了:①有机波谱分析课程教学内容的改革;②有机波谱分析课程教学方法的改进;③识谱解谱是学生学习的核心;④有机波谱分析课程教学模式的改革。     

Comparing risk attitudes of organic and non-organic farmers with a Bayesian random coefficient model

Organic farming is usually considered to be more risky thanconventional farming, but the risk aversion of organic farmerscompared with that of conventional farmers has not been studied.Using a non-structural approach to risk estimation, a Bayesianrandom coefficient model is used to obtain individual Arrow–Prattcoefficients of absolute risk aversion for a sample of Dutchorganic and non-organic arable farmers. The model is estimatedusing Gibbs sampling. The results indicate that organic farmersare significantly less risk averse than their non-organic colleagues.     

由磷肥企业副产氟硅酸制备氟化钠的研究

重点介绍了以磷肥企业副产氟硅酸为原料制备氟化钠的新工艺。首先用氨水氨化脱硅得到氟化铵溶液,再向氟化铵溶液加氯化钠合成氟化钠。对影响反应的温度、时间、物料配比等因素进行了探讨,得出具体工艺为:(1)氨化反应:H2SiF6浓度在12%～14%之间,氨水过量25%,反应温度为60～70℃,反应时间120min。(2)氟化钠合成:氯化钠过量15%～20%,反应温度85～90℃。产物氟化钠纯度大于98%,收率大于80%。     

Consumer Preferences for ‘Localness’ and Organic Food Production

While organic food is based on well-defined production criteria, the criteria for ‘local’ food are less clear. This study investigates the preferences and trade-offs of distinct consumer segments relative to organic production and several dimensions of local food (sales channel, size of company, and geographical location of animals used in the production). The analysis is based on a quantitative survey of 505 Danish consumers and a choice experiment involving beef salami. Data were analyzed in a principal component and a latent class analysis. We identify five consumer segments whose preferences for organic and local product attributes differed substantially. Most respondents considered geographical proximity in the raising of cattle to be the most important attribute and a third of the consumers were willing to pay a premium for organic salami. The segmentation provides more detailed information about stated consumer behavior than what is typically elicited when considering only average consumer behavior.     

Optimal forecast evaluation: fertilizer prices

High fertilizer price volatility makes production planning and inventory management difficult, so accurate fertilizer price forecasts would be beneficial. This article evaluates commercial forecasts for urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices based on forecast accuracy and optimal forecast properties. Most forecasts pass the tests, but forecasts for the US New Orleans urea and the US Gulf DAP markets, in particular, do not and thus show potential to be improved.     

有机硅废水达标处理工艺的探讨与应用

本文介绍了一种处理有机硅废水的新的工艺组合,即铁炭微电解——水解酸化——UASB——MBR联合处理法,第一步铁炭微电解很明显的改善了有机硅原水的可生化性,BOD/COD值可达0.52;进入水解酸化池后,部分大分子降解成小分子物质,可生化性进一步提高;随后进入UASB,在颗粒污泥的作用下,COD去除率达到81%;在曝气池中,设置MBR,进一步去除了COD,去除率为96%;最终出水能达标排放。     

熔岩台地矮曲林土壤溶液吸光度与土壤碳、氮含量的相关性

通过对五大连池新期火山熔岩台地白桦、香杨、山杨3个林型的矮曲林45个样本进行14个波长(250、254、260、265、272、280、285、300、340、350、365、400、436和465 nm)土壤溶液吸光度以及土壤有机碳和全氮含量的测定,旨在探讨土壤溶液吸光度对土壤碳氮指标的指示作用以及不同林型对该作用的...     

土壤有机碳储量估算方法及土地利用调控措施研究进展

研究目的:综述土壤有机碳储量估算及调控措施的进展,展望中国有关研究的发展趋势。研究方法:文献资料法、对比法。研究结果:全球与中国陆地生态系统碳储量估算方法主要有土壤类型法、模型法、GIS估算法、生命带类型法等,但受资料来源、区域土壤的空间异质性等的限制,估算方法的适用性和结果差异较大;土壤固碳的土地利用调控措施主要有农艺措施、生物措施、化学措施、政策措施等。研究结论:正确评价土壤碳储量与合理的土地利用,对减缓可能的温室效应、减少全球碳循环通量具有重要意义。