英国技术前瞻研究工作全景

英国的技术前瞻研究工作发源于1994年的技术预测计划,现已成为英国政府的一项常规工作。英国技术前瞻研究组挂靠在商业、创新和技能部下属的政府科学办公室,有优秀的研究队伍和稳定的经费支持,其开展的项目涉及新兴科学和技术面临的挑战和机遇以及围绕科技能发挥作用的重大社会问题,例如,全球变化、应对肥胖和洪涝灾害等。技术前瞻研究项目的研究报告和提出的有关建议,不仅对英国政府制定政策提供了重要参考,也对国际社会关于一些重大问题的判断和应对措施产生了较大影响。通过对英国技术前瞻研究工作的由来、已经完成和正在开展的项目、核心研究团队、项目的遴选标准和特点等进行系统介绍,并以案例的形式阐述了其前瞻研究项目对政府部门的影响,旨在为我国开展相关工作提供参考借鉴。     

我国非国企人力资源管理战略转变与可持续发展

本文认为,2004年春天在我国出现的民工荒问题,严重制约了我国以吸纳农业劳动力为主的非国有企业的可持续发展。产生民工荒的原因,主要是我国非国有企业长期掠夺性使用人力资源——对吸纳到本企业的人力资源实行传统大棒式管理所致。要解决民工荒问题,实现非国有企业可持续发展,我国非国有企业的人力资源管理战略必须转变为人本管理。本文提出了人本管理战略模型和这一模型实施的对策建议。     

第三方物流的监督博弈研究

由于物流外包中物流需求方与物流服务商之间的签约后的信息不对称,带来了第三方物流中的道德风险。物流需求方通过对第三方物流服务商的监督激励能够有效地减少服务商的机会主义行为,提高服务商的服务水平,克服第三方物流应用中的负面效应。本文基于物流外包中第三方物流的违规动机和外包的风险,运用非合作博弈论的理论和方法,构建了第三方物流的监督博弈模型,并应用混合纳什均衡模型对第三方物流的监督问题进行了定量分析,详细分析了物流需求方和服务商的决策行为,求出了混合战略纳什均衡点,得出了制约博弈双方决策行为的关键因素,并提出了对第三方物流企业进行有效监督的若干建议,为物流需求方提供了有效监督决策的理论依据和实践参考。     

瑞典非营利性机构发展概况及其经验启示

瑞典非营利性机构历史悠久,在社会经济发展中发挥着重要作用。目前,瑞典约有20万个非营利性机构,主要投入在社会保障、文化和娱乐(包括体育)、基金等12个领域。瑞典非营利性机构一般采用理事会制度,其下设有资产委员会、业务委员会和秘书处,在商业化的管理模式下,机构设置倾向于扁平化。瑞典政府对非营利机构给予一定的扶持和优惠,主要资助类型有运行补贴、项目资助等。瑞典科研类非营利机构,如,科研基金会,在瑞典科研体系中发挥了无可替代的作用。通过分析认为:除政府及全社会的广泛支持外,瑞典非营利性机构得以健康发展,还要归功于其机构自身角色定位准确、业务水平高、融资能力强和管理有效等因素。期望瑞典的成功经验能为我国非营利性机构的发展提供借鉴。     

基于旅游扶贫战略的效应分析及创新对策研究——以星子县为例

旅游扶贫是一种新型的扶贫方式,其优势在于变资源优势为经济优势,变外力输血为内在造血,变被动生存为主动发展。文章以江西省星子县为例进行实证研究,分析旅游资源富集的欠发达地区旅游扶贫中普遍存在的困难,并由此提出化解困难的机制与对策。     

国外社会创业组织绩效评价模式与整合研究

社会创业组织的存在与社会经济进步和民主治理密切相关,但目前对社会创业组织绩效评价的系统研究还比较缺乏。本文首先从基于社会或财务分析角度以及研究方法与过程角度分别介绍了国外经典的基于平衡计分卡的绩效评价模式、基于投资社会回报的绩效评价方法、基于影响机制的绩效评价模式和基于研究方法论的绩效评价思想,然后构建了一个社会创业组织整合指标体系,旨在为后续研究提供相应的理论分埽与指导框架。     

Changing rewards in contests: Has the three-point rule brought more offense to soccer?

In the mid-nineties FIFA decided to increase from two to three the number of points assigned to the winning team of a soccer match played under traditional round-robin national leagues. Since a game of soccer can be regarded as a contest, FIFA's measure provides an interesting case-study for analysing how a change in the system of rewards (from a zero to a non-zero sum rule) may affect the contestants' equilibrium behaviour. In this paper we try to assess, both theoretically and empirically, whether FIFA's new point rule has changed soccer towards a more offensive game, in which teams adopt more risky strategies. In particular, we evaluate the “na?ve hypothesis” according to which the measure would induce every team to play always more offensively, and we explore the extent to which the change in teams' behaviour may be affected by quality differentials between teams. Our most important hypothesis is that when the asymmetry between opposing teams is large enough, an increase in the reward for victory induces the weaker team to play more defensively, rather than the opposite. By looking at a subset of matches held in the Portuguese first division league, which approximate the conditions of our model, we find support for this hypothesis. First version received: July 1999/Final version received: May 2001     

Agile Opportunities in the Chinese Automobile Market and Marketing Recommendations for Chinese Automakers

This paper is based on a study of the Chinese automobile market and industry and aims at proposing marketing recommendations for Chinese automakers. We approach the problem by putting the customer at the central focal point of all marketing operations. We look for agile opportunities in the Chinese automobile industry and identify customers＇ needs and expectations in the current and future markets and propose solutions to satisfy those needs. We, then, develop a strategic marketing framework based on the 5P marketing model and Blue Ocean Strategy to make best use of the agile opportunities.     

Time-varying relationship of news sentiment,implied volatility and stock returns

I examine the relationship between aggregate news sentiment, S&P 500 index (SPX) returns, and changes in the implied volatility index (VIX). I find a significant negative contemporaneous relationship between changes in VIX and both news sentiment and stock returns. This relationship is asymmetric whereby changes in VIX are larger following negative news and/or stock market declines. Vector autoregression (VAR) analysis of the dynamics and cross-dependencies between variables reveals a strong positive relationship between previous and current period changes in implied volatility and stock returns, while current period and lagged news sentiment has a significant positive (negative) relationship with stock returns (changes in VIX). I develop a simple trading strategy whereby high (low) levels of implied volatility signal attractive opportunities to take short (long) positions in the underlying index, while extremely negative (positive) news sentiment signals opportunities to enter short (long) index positions. The investor fear gauge (VIX) appears to perform better than news sentiment measures in forecasting future returns.     

适用于宽带网络波形的基于定价策略的时隙选择

针对宽带网络波形（Wideband Networking Waveform,WNW）的多信道二维时频资源,以减小网络资源浪费为优化目标,提出了一种基于定价策略的时隙选择方法（Pricing Strategy Based Slot Selection,PSSS）。该方法通过接纳控制保障资源分配的公平性,采用对偶优化建模与椭圆搜索法实现最优的时隙选择。理论分析证明该方法能够在多项式级别时间复杂度内搜索到时隙选择的最优解。仿真结果表明,提出的PSSS算法通过较低资源浪费获得了较低的容量冗余度,能够有效地解决WNW多信道网络的时隙选择问题。