Conditioning as disintegration

Conditional probability distributions seem to have a bad reputation when it comes to rigorous treatment of conditioning. Technical arguments are published as manipulations of Radon–Nikodym derivatives, although we all secretly perform heuristic calculations using elementary definitions of conditional probabilities. In print, measurability and averaging properties substitute for intuitive ideas about random variables behaving like constants given particular conditioning information.
One way to engage in rigorous, guilt-free manipulation of conditional distributions is to treat them as disintegrating measures—families of probability measures concentrating on the level sets of a conditioning statistic. In this paper we present a little theory and a range of examples—from EM algorithms and the Neyman factorization, through Bayes theory and marginalization paradoxes—to suggest that disintegrations have both intuitive appeal and the rigor needed for many problems in mathematical statistics.     

"转化"理论在马克思劳动价值论中的地位及其局限

本文认为,马克思的劳动价值论是以“简单商品经济”为基础构建起来的,“转化”理论是马克思劳动价值理论由“简单商品经济”通向资本主义现存生产方式的桥梁,它使马克思劳动价值论不再仅仅局限于“简单商品经济”的范围,而是其全部理论的支点。然而它在马克思的劳动价值理论中并非是一种完全自洽的存在,它在解释资本主义社会现实经济活动方面,本身也存在一些局限,留下了一些值得思考的问题。     

Learning across the life cycle: Experimentation and performance among the hollywood studio heads

Guided by notions from the literature on organizational learning, this paper investigates how product line experimentation and organizational performance change across the careers of top managers. Its subjects are the studio heads who ran all the major Hollywood film studios from 1936 to 1965. The study found first, that product line experimentation declines over the course of executive tenures; second, that there is an inverse U‐shaped relationship between top executive tenure and an organization's financial performance; and third, that product line experimentation is more likely to benefit financial performance late in top executives' tenures. These findings are consistent with a three‐stage ‘executive life cycle’. During the early years of their tenures, top managers experiment intensively with their product lines to learn about their business; later on their accumulated knowledge allows them to reduce experimentation and increase performance; finally, in their last years, executives reduce experimentation still further, and performance declines. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

论建国以来中国共产党的农业生产力发展观

建国以来,党的农业生产力发展观经历了探索、调整和完善的过程。第一代领导集体的农业生产力发展观偏重于农业制度的改革,进行了以集体组织下改革农业技术的实践,因忽视农民积极性和生产力系统的协调性,其实践效果差。第二、三代领导集体改变了党对农业的领导方式,高度重视农民积极性和生产力系统的协同性,形成了包括发挥农民积极性、现代工程和生物技术与传统农业技术相结合、市场农业和尊重自然规律为内容的农业生产力发展观。这是中国当代农业生产力发展的成功经验,也是党对传统农业重视天地人协调经验的继承。     

深化对马克思企业理论的研究

深化对马克思企业理论的研究既有助于澄清一些人认为“马克思没有企业理论”的误解,也有助于纠正企业理论研究中“言必称西方”的倾向,还可以为我国的企业改革实践提供指导。研究的途径有“回到马克思”、“依据变化了的实际分析马克思企业理论的‘合理内核’与时代局限”、“批判性地借鉴西方经济学的企业理论”等。     

产权观下我国企业会计目标构建问题研究

会计目标一直是西方会计界重点关注和研究的问题,近年来,我国会计理论界和实务界也对其投以越来越多的关注。本文试图从企业产权理论和制度变迁的角度,以利益相关者权益保护为主线研究会计目标,理清从受托责任观到决策有用观演进的必然性和合理性,并在分析英美、法德模式会计目标的差异后,结合当前我国会计准则国际趋同的背景,提出我国应确立以利益相关者权益保护为中心、以企业特征为导向、针对不同环境分别选择受托责任或决策有用为核心内容的会计目标构建思想。     

Statistical Decision Problems and Bayesian Nonparametric Methods

This paper considers parametric statistical decision problems conducted within a Bayesian nonparametric context. Our work was motivated by the realisation that typical parametric model selection procedures are essentially incoherent. We argue that one solution to this problem is to use a flexible enough model in the first place, a model that will not be checked no matter what data arrive. Ideally, one would use a nonparametric model to describe all the uncertainty about the density function generating the data. However, parametric models are the preferred choice for many statisticians, despite the incoherence involved in model checking, incoherence that is quite often ignored for pragmatic reasons. In this paper we show how coherent parametric inference can be carried out via decision theory and Bayesian nonparametrics. None of the ingredients discussed here are new, but our main point only becomes evident when one sees all priors—even parametric ones—as measures on sets of densities as opposed to measures on finite-dimensional parameter spaces.     

Asymptotic expansion of S-estimators of location and covariance

By means of a straightforward application of empirical process theory, we show that S-estimators of multivariate location and covariance are asymptotically equivalent to a sum of independent vector and matrix valued random elements respectively. This provides an alternative proof of asymptotic normality of S-estimators and clearly explains the limiting covariance structure. It also leads to a relatively simple proof of asymptotic normality of the length of the shortest α-fraction.     

建筑工程项目无标底招标行为的经济博弈分析

运用博弈方法对建筑工程项目无标底招标行为展开模型化研究,剖析各投标人的出价策略以及招标人的期望收益,演绎其博弈特性和博弈均衡.在实证中提出建筑工程项目无标底招标行为博弈所需满足的条件,设计可操作的建筑工程项目无标底招标博弈机制,规范建筑行业经营及行政管理部门提供决策支持.     

University Students’ Attitudes Towards Entrepreneurship: A Two Countries Comparison

There is general agreement that attitudes towards the entrepreneur, entrepreneurial activity, and its social function are determinant factors for university students to decide an entrepreneurial career.This empirical study aims at assessing and comparing the attitudes of university students towards entrepreneurship and enterprise formation in Catalonia and Puerto Rico, using a sample of 837 and 435 students, respectively.Results reveal a positive entrepreneur’s image. Both samples have a favorable perception of desirability of new venture creation, although the perception of feasibility is by far not so positive and only a small percentage has the firm intention to create a new company.