天然气制合成气技术进展

对目前天然气制备合成气主要的水蒸气转化法、二氧化碳转化法、催化部分氧化法、非催化部分氧化法、自热式转化法进行了综述,并对这些方法的技术特点和工艺操作进行了讨论。     

Bioelectricity in Malaysia: economic feasibility,environmental and deforestation implications

We investigate the economic feasibility of bioelectricity production from biomass in Malaysia and its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storage, agricultural prices, agricultural employment and deforestation. For this purpose, we develop a partial equilibrium model that projects agricultural prices, production, imports, exports, domestic consumption and land use in 5‐year increments between 2015 and 2065. Our results show that by 2030 biomass‐generated electricity can supply 36.5 per cent of the electricity generated in Malaysia, 16 times more than the 2016 electricity supply from biomass. Increased bioelectricity production from biomass will significantly reduce GHG emissions and will help Malaysia meet its commitment in the Paris Agreement to mitigate GHG emission by 45 per cent before 2030. Our modelling shows that biomass‐generated electricity creates a derived demand for waste biomass that expands the area of oil palm plantations. The expansion lowers agricultural prices, boosts agricultural employment and leads to some deforestation as landowners clear rainforest to plant oil palm trees. Nonetheless, the deforestation does not increase GHG emissions since GHG gains from bioelectricity significantly exceed GHG losses from deforestation.     

基于模糊偏序关系的消费者偏好测评

了解消费者偏好是企业营销活动的基础性工作。本文首先利用模糊偏序关系的排序方法,解决消费者偏好的心理测度的模糊性问题,论证了用模糊偏序关系对心理测度进行评价是一种较好的方法;然后利用决策理论中的condorect函数把个人偏好合成群体偏好;最后用实例验证了该方法对消费者偏好进行评价的可行性。     

我国四部门金融杠杆对系统性金融风险的影响——基于空间溢出视角

基于金融杠杆对系统性金融风险的区域内和区域间作用机制的理论分析,运用空间偏微分方法,依据测算出的2010—2019年我国各省(区、市)四部门金融杠杆和系统性金融风险数据,考量我国四部门金融杠杆对系统性金融风险的空间溢出。结果显示：我国系统性金融风险具有较强的空间趋同性特征;由于金融杠杆部门结构和所在区域的不同,其对系统性金融风险的区域内溢出存在显著差异;此外,金融杠杆对系统性金融风险的区域间外溢效应明显,忽视该区域间溢出,将不利于准确评估金融杠杆对系统性金融风险的冲击。     

The cost effectiveness of zonisamide as adjunctive therapy in adult partial seizure epilepsy

Summary

Many patients with epilepsy continue to have partial seizures requiring add-on antiepileptic drugs (AEDs). Zonisamide, a broad-spectrum AED, has recently entered the European market and must be compared with the current standard of care. The objective of this study was to determine the cost effectiveness of zonisamide as treatment for adults with uncontrolled partial epilepsy in Scotland. A Markov decision model was developed from the perspective of the Scottish National Health Service. Outcome measures included quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs in GBP.

Patients treated with zonisamide had a 15-year incremental cost of £20 and 0.026 additional QALYs compared with patients treated with levetiracetam. These modest differences result in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for zonisamide of £761/QALY.

We conclude that zonisamide is a cost-effective treatment for adult patients with refractory partial epilepsy being treated according to Scottish treatment patterns and costs, assuming a willingness to pay of £20,000/QALY.     

GIS设备局部放电分析及对策研究

现阶段,对GIS绝缘的在线监测和诊断最直接有效的方法就是进行局部放电的监测,通过监测GIS设备在运行时的绝缘状态,及时发现可能出现的异常和故障的预兆,采取正确的处理措施,保证设备运行安全和稳定。本文主要介绍GIS局部放电在线监测的方法和优缺点以及举例110kV GIS设备的局部放电异常分析和处理对策。     

Neglected dynamics in panel data models; consequences and detection in finite samples*

The bias of various estimators for static cross-section and panel data models is assessed in a simulation study, where the actual data generating process is a dynamic adjustment mechanism with random individual effects. It is concluded that the consequences of incorrectly estimating a static model can be rather serious. Therefore, it is important to have an accurate technique available for the detection of dynamics. Two exact similar tests for the presence of a lagged dependent variable in panel data models are developed; in some simulation experiments these tests outperform standard asymptotic test procedures. Empirical results on Engle curves for food illustrate the above issues.     

Exact Solutions of a Model for Asset Prices by K. Takaoka

We are concerned with a model for asset prices introduced by Koichiro Takaoka, which extends the well known Black-Scholes model. For the pricing of contingent claims, partial differential equation (PDE) is derived in a special case under the typical delta hedging strategy. We present an exact pricing formula by way of solving the equation. Mathematics Subject Classification(2000):91B28,35K15     

A Benchmark Approach to Filtering in Finance

The paper proposes the use of the growth optimal portfolio for pricing and hedging in incomplete markets when there are unobserved factors that have to be filtered. The proposed filtering framework is applicable also in cases when there does not exist an equivalent risk neutral martingale measure. The reduction of the variance of derivative prices for increasing degrees of available information is measured. 1991 Mathematics Subject Classification: primary 90A09; secondary 60G99; 62P20 JEL Classification: G10, G13     

现收现付制——我国养老保险模式的最佳选择

目前,我国养老保险体系向部分基金积累制转轨过程中遇到了转制成本、隐形债务等一系列问题。事实上,我国不宜向基金积累制转轨,基金积累制的国际实践并不理想,其本质上具有不能增加福利、管理成本高昂、外部条件不具备等缺陷。而我国现阶段具备"艾伦条件"仍然满足、人口高龄化程度相对较低、可吸收大量新增工业人口加入养老保险体系等有利因素。对此,现收现付制仍然是我国养老保险体系的最佳选择。