Building and Interpreting Macro/Micro Estimates of Accrued‐to‐Date Pension Liabilities: French Reforms as a Case Study

Estimates of accrued‐to‐date pension liabilities (ADL) should become more widely accessible to statisticians and decision makers in the near future, in application of new SNA requirements. This raises two questions: how can such estimates be routinely produced, and what for? Microsimulation helps in answering the first question of the “how.” It allows ADL computations that take into account the complexity of pension rules. Concerning the “what for” question, it is known that ADL are not an indicator of global financial sustainability. Messages they convey are more interesting at the micro level, from a household perspective. This fosters the case for microsimulation which spontaneously generates consistent micro/macro results. We illustrate these points using the French situation as a case study. We emphasize one aspect of French reforms that may concern other countries as well: the move to price indexation and the connection it creates between sustainability and growth assumptions.     

A Head-to-Head Comparison of Augmented Wealth in Germany and the United States*

We examine the composition of augmented household wealth (i.e., the sum of net worth and pension wealth) in the United States and Germany. Pension wealth makes up a considerable portion of household wealth, of about 48 percent in the United States and 61 percent in Germany. When pension wealth is included in household wealth, the Gini coefficient falls from 0.889 to 0.700 in the United States, and from 0.755 to 0.508 in Germany. If the wealth shares in Germany were the same as in the United States, this would lead to a 12.6 percent increase in the Gini coefficient in the augmented wealth distribution in Germany.     

新型农村社会养老保险财政支持能力测度及引申

新型农村社会养老保险离开政府财政的支持,便成为无源之水、无本之木.充裕的财政收入是有效规避新农保制度震荡和实现其长期稳定发展的关键.基于ARIMA模型动态预测2012-2020年我国财政收入走势,结果表明,未来十年中国财政收入仍保持增长态势,但增长速度放缓.整体上看,新农保的财政补贴压力适中,基本维持在中国财政收入的0.8％左右,政府财政具备支持新农保可持续发展的能力.应调整新农保养老金补贴与财政收入增长比重、降低行政费用、压缩基建支出,从而改善各级政府财政支付能力不均的现实.     

年金会计相关问题研究

本文对企业年金的性质和年金会计主体进行了界定,认为年金的会计处理应建立在劳动报酬观的基础上,并以企业和年金基金为双重主体进行会计核算。在此基础上,讨论了西方企业年金会计准则对缴费确定型计划和待遇确定型计划的会计处理方法及其信息披露,同时对我国企业年金会计准则的相关内容进行了比较说明,并对如何完善我国企业年金会计的发展提出了建议。     

长沙失地农民养老保险调研报告

以问卷调查方式对长沙失地农民养老保险现状进行调查,发现失地农民心理问题严重,选择社会养老保险模式方面存在较大分歧,参加社会养老保险的意愿不强,养老保险基本处于真空等问题,从个人缴费,地方政府财政压力,养老保障水平,社会保险意识等方面对其原因进行分析,提出了完善征地补偿政策,提高养老保险金的发放比例,完善＂农转非＂政策,创造就业机会,参与商业保险等方面的对策。     

Expectations,uncertainty and institutions. An application to the analysis of social security reforms

The aging process that many developed economies will face in the medium-term is leading to reforms in the public pensions systems in order to solve the potential financial unsustainability generated by the foreseeable increase in the expenditure in pension benefits (assuming that the current social security contributions and the eligibility conditions will remain unchanged). Neoclassical economics defends a radical reform of these systems, substituting the current pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) systems by funded systems. In this paper, using the Post-Keynesian theory as a theoretical framework, we provide an alternative reflection to that proposed by the neoclassical economics about the choice between the alternative pension systems. The focus of the paper is the advantages of the PAYGO pension systems to stabilize the expectations of future income.     

扩大中国养老保障覆盖率的对策分析

中国目前的养老保障覆盖率远低于世界发达国家的平均水平。随着中国经济的持续增长,如何在国家财政可承受的范围内,尽快而有效地扩大包括非城镇人口在内的养老保障覆盖率,是一个亟待研究和解决的问题。文中分析比较了中国与美国、德国、英国、法国、日本、新加坡、智利等国养老保障体系的异同点,探讨了人口与GDP,养老金债务与GDP之间的关系,提出了扩大中国养老保障覆盖率的建议性对策。     

我国汽车保险的统计分析

文中通过对某保险公司某季度赔付情况统计分析,得出转变观念、建立新的车险业务发展战略,加强车险经营管理及借鉴发达国家经验与国家经济发展保持同步,完善保险各方面服务对国内保险行业是很必要的。而作为车辆使用者,了解目前国内当前车险种类与行情,合理投保也是很重要的。     

新形势下我国城市养老模式的思考

随着人口老龄化速度的加快,如何科学、妥善的解决好数量日益庞大的老年人的养老问题是国家及社会必须面对的现实问题。文章从我们国家传统的家庭养老模式和已经初步建立的并具有一定规模的居家养老模式和机构养老模式入手,分析了不同的养老模式的现实意义及存在的不足,提出了解决这些问题的思路和方法。     

A new proposal of pension regimes typology: empirical analysis of the OECD countries

In the paper, we present a new typology of pension regimes based on two main dimensions: the extent of involvement of the state and the market, and the role of voluntary schemes. We propose three theoretical pension regimes. The study proves that our theoretical typology is also consistent with empirical pension systems in OECD countries. In order to group them into the similar pension models, we employ multivariate statistical analysis. As a result of our empirical research, the regimes distinguished in the theoretical framework have found their counterparts in the clusters of real pension systems operating in 30 countries.