养老保险基金缺口的财政负担能力初探

在前人对中国未来时期养老保险基金缺口预测的基础之上,对养老保险基金缺口的财政负担能力进行了分析并提出了财政解决基金缺口的可行性建议,认为应通过扩大财政收入、调整财政支出结构等方法来弥补养老保险基金缺口。     

缴费激励机制下的养老金连年上调：矛盾及其化解

通过测算不同缴费年限、缴费基数和退休年龄下的养老金交叉替代率,发现现行养老金制度具有较强的缴费激励效应;而早退休、早调待、少缴费的养老金水平明显高于晚退休、晚调待、多缴费的养老金水平。这种养老金调整方式与养老保险制度本身“多工作、多缴费、多得养老金”的缴费激励机制相矛盾,它将打击职工长缴、多缴的积极性,不利于制度的可持续发展。由此提出,建立正常的养老金调整机制,扩大调整范围,加快实现养老保险制度并轨,提高基本养老保险最低缴费年限。     

机关事业单位养老保险机制创新——基于“转型名义账户制”思路的制度设计

随着银行、证券、保险业务的逐步融合,交叉业务、金融衍生产品的不断推陈出新,我国现行的分业监管体制的局限性日渐突出,文章对比分析了混业监管与分业监管,提出混业监管模式更适应混业经营、业务创新的需要。同时加强混业监管,将更有利于提高我国金融监管效率,防范和化解金融风险。     

事业单位养老金改革对社会人力资源配置的影响

中国现行的"二元"养老金制度,不仅加重了国家财政负担,而且导致整个社会的人力资源配置失衡。一方面,大量人才流入事业单位,引起其人才过剩;另一方面,企业亟须的人才却由于供给不足,阻碍了企业的发展。改革事业单位养老金制度,有助于消除事业、企业单位之间人才流动的障碍,对实现整个社会人力资源的合理配置,具有深远和重大的意义。     

Building and Interpreting Macro/Micro Estimates of Accrued‐to‐Date Pension Liabilities: French Reforms as a Case Study

Estimates of accrued‐to‐date pension liabilities (ADL) should become more widely accessible to statisticians and decision makers in the near future, in application of new SNA requirements. This raises two questions: how can such estimates be routinely produced, and what for? Microsimulation helps in answering the first question of the “how.” It allows ADL computations that take into account the complexity of pension rules. Concerning the “what for” question, it is known that ADL are not an indicator of global financial sustainability. Messages they convey are more interesting at the micro level, from a household perspective. This fosters the case for microsimulation which spontaneously generates consistent micro/macro results. We illustrate these points using the French situation as a case study. We emphasize one aspect of French reforms that may concern other countries as well: the move to price indexation and the connection it creates between sustainability and growth assumptions.     

基于福利最大化的辽宁养老保险个人账户最优缴费率分析

从个人效用和社会福利最大化的角度出发,养老保险制度存在着最优的缴费率。最优缴费率与资本产出弹性α、未来效用的贴现因子ρ、人口增长率n、有效劳动增长率g、个人工资与社会平均工资的比例λ等参数有关。结合中国现实,在其他参数不变的前提下,个人工资与社会平均工资比例λ的不同导致个人最优缴费率的差异。现行养老保险制度的个人账户缴费率与实现福利最大化的最优个人账户缴费率相比是偏低的;适当提高个人账户缴费率不会影响在职者的当期消费,提高个人账户缴费率是可行的。     

国外职业年金的运作模式选择

目前世界各国的职业年金计划运作模式主要有给付确定型计划和缴费确定型计划两种.针对两种职业年金计划运作模式,结合英国、波兰和美国的职业年金改革实践,从受益者角度看,两种制度各有利弊.缴费确定型计划近年来在各国迅速取代给付确定型计划模式,而中国的企业年金计划则选择基金制的缴费确定型计划运作模式.     

The effects of recent Spanish pension reforms on sustainability and pension adequacy

The Spanish pension system has been recently reformed as a response to the demographic challenge and with the objective of ensuring the sustainability of the pension system in the long-term. The overall reforms include changes in the majority of the system parameters, a new indexation rule and a sustainability factor that links life expectancy and the first pension amount. The aim of this work is to analyse how these reforms affect two important features of a pension system: fiscal sustainability and adequacy. For this purpose, the real internal rate of return (IRR) of the lifetime contributions and benefits and the prospective gross theoretical replacement rate (TRR), both before and after the reforms, have been computed. The calculations are case-study based, for a few hypothetical workers who are sufficiently representative of the earnings and retirement patterns in Spain. The results show that the real IRR is 0.7 p.p. lower and the prospective gross TRR is 18 p.p. lower after the reform process for the base case of a man with an uninterrupted career of 40 years with average earnings and a retirement age of 65. In addition, pension reform process in Spain has different effects among the individuals depending on the gender, level of earnings, retirement age and career length.     

目标替代率下的企业年金缴费率——基于税收优惠视角分析

企业年金作为我国养老保险体系中的第二支柱,因缺乏税收优惠政策而发展滞后,难以形成对基本养老保险的有力补充。通过将税收优惠政策和企业年金缴费率联系在一起进行考察,建立年金基金平衡模型,计算出为实现企业年金的目标替代率政府应实行多大程度的税收优惠政策。并运用成本——收益理论对这一税收优惠政策进行可行性评价,最终得到企业年金税收优惠政策能够以较小成本换来企业年金较大发展,并能够较大程度地提高整个社会福利水平的结论。     

中国统筹养老金缴费率优化研究

在中国养老金计划中,企业与个体工商户、灵活就业人员统筹养老金缴费率存在较大差距,这对企业发展、市场竞争、社会养老保险制度的稳定运行产生很大负面影响。依据公平与效率相统一的原则,通过养老保险精算分析,并结合中国养老保险制度运行的现状,认为将企业与个体工商户、灵活就业人员统筹养老金缴费率分别由目前过高、过低状态分阶段向中间调整,最终统一为18%,是中国统筹养老金缴费率的优化路径。