福利多元视角下的中国居家养老经验探析

我国面临严峻的老龄化问题,如何将有限的国家资源用于改善老年人的生活质量？经过理论和实践探索后,政府决定在十二五期间全国推广居家养老服务模式,本文中笔者将对各地的居家养老实践经验进行总结,结合福利多元主义提炼主要福利供给主体的职能定位,以期为居家养老在全国推广提供借鉴.     

At What Age Do You Expect to Retire? Retirement Expectations and Increases in the Statutory Retirement Age

We analyse the extent to which an increase in the statutory retirement age affects individuals' retirement expectations. Understanding how individuals adjust their expectations is crucial to the evaluation of this policy, since retirement expectations directly affect other important decisions such as labour supply, engagement in (further) education and, of course, savings and investments. We consider the 2007 German pension reform that legislated an increase in the statutory retirement age from 65 years to 67. Our analysis is based on a longitudinal study that directly asks respondents at what age they expect to retire. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach, we look at the changes in subjective retirement expectations over time and estimate the extent to which they can be attributed to the 2007 reform. We find that the reform shifted the retirement expectations of the younger cohorts, although there is some heterogeneity in the way individuals adjusted. While there are no significant differences between men and women, lower‐educated individuals failed to revise their expectations. As these individuals usually acquire both lower pension claims and lower private savings, the fact that they have been slower in updating their retirement expectations causes concern regarding their income security after retirement.     

Jogging not running: A narrative approach to exploring ‘exercise as leisure’ after a life in elite football

ABSTRACT

As research has shown, former elite athletes often struggle to adapt to aspects of their post-sport lives. This can include the management of their identities, dealing with the uncertainty of their new roles, and negotiating the changes that occur to their bodies. In this paper we discuss an under-reported challenge facing retired athletes: how to manage their ongoing relationship with exercise. To address this issue we adopted a narrative approach, based on the first author’s experiences as a former football player, to provide a socio-cultural reading of the various challenges involved in the transition from exercise as a vocation to a leisure activity. We suggest that these stories demonstrate that in retirement, former athletes’ docility, while seemingly advantageous, can also be a significant obstacle to developing alternative meanings for exercise, including as a potential re-creative or leisure activity that can become meaningful and important in its own right.     

浅析应对人口老龄化的公共政策

我国养老保障制度从单位养老向社会化转制的过程中,同时遭遇了人口老龄化的冲击。转制带来的隐性债务在抚养比增大的作用下不断放大,个人账户难以实现有效积累和保值增值,任其发展必然形成严重的养老金支付危机。本文通过分析我国应对老龄化社会面临的特殊困难,结合现有代表性研究成果,提出在资本市场不完善的背景下,养老金个人账户向大型央企直接投资,转换部分国家持有股份以弥补个人账户缺口,并从鼓励居家养老的现实角度,提出"以家庭为单位"申报个人所得税的构想等建议。     

地方政府投资效率的阶段性和地域性特征——基于中国省市面板数据的分析

当前,地方政府投资对经济增长发挥着重要影响,因而地方政府投资效率的高低显得十分关键。结合中国省市1998-2008年间的面板数据,基于Pooled OLS、一阶差分模型、固定效应模型以及GMM方法,本文尝试深入分析地方政府投资效率的阶段性和地域性特征。在计量模型构建方面,本文创新的综合考虑到TFP分解问题,控制了基尼系数、教育财政支出比重和劳动份额等结构性变量。实证结果表明,自2001年入世以来,地方政府投资效率有所降低,幅度为7%;而东部地区省份的投资效率相对于西部地区省份要高10%,这一结论具有较强的现实意义。     

生育政策调整、退休年龄延迟与城镇职工基本养老保险最优缴费率

文章基于“十三五”规划建议提出适当降低社会保险费率的现实背景,从社会福利最大化视角,运用一般均衡模型对五种生育情景下不同退休年龄的城镇职工基本养老保险最优社会统筹缴费率进行测算,并分析降低社会统筹缴费率的经济效应。研究表明：（1）最优社会统筹缴费率随退休年龄的延长而下降,随人口增长率的上升而提高。0％－100％符合全面二孩政策规定的妇女生育二孩,使退休年龄为60岁时的最优社会统筹缴费率降到191．8％－196．3％,使退休年龄为65岁时的最优缴费率降到107．7％－116．4％。（2）除了受生育政策和退休年龄影响外,最优社会统筹缴费率对物质资本产出弹性、个人主观效用贴现因子和社会贴现因子的敏感性也较强。（3）降低社会统筹缴费率具有积极的经济效应,不仅能促进经济增长和增进社会福利,而且有助于完善我国多层次养老保险体系。因此,文章为降低城镇职工基本养老保险社会统筹缴费率的改革提供了依据。     

Notional defined contribution pension schemes: why does only Sweden distribute the survivor dividend?

The aim of this paper is to analyse the role of the survivor dividend in notional defined contribution (NDC) pension schemes. At present, this feature can only be found in the Swedish defined contribution scheme. We develop a model that endorses the idea that the survivor dividend has a strong basis for enabling the NDC scheme to achieve financial equilibrium and that not including the dividend is a non-transparent way of compensating for increases in longevity and/or legacy costs from old pension systems. We also find that the average effect of the dividend remains unchanged for any constant annual rate of population growth, that contributors who reach retirement age always get a higher return than the scheme does, and that population growth enables cohorts with more years of contributions to benefit to a greater extent from the dividend effect.     

Motivation for emergency and retirement saving: an examination of Regulatory Focus Theory

Can Regulatory Focus Theory be used to better understand consumers' saving attitudes and behaviours? The theory posits that prevention‐ and promotion‐oriented personality traits may influence financial decision making. Using secondary and experimental survey data, two research questions were examined: (1) Are promotion‐ and prevention‐related saving goals, in combination with promotion‐ and prevention‐oriented personality traits, related to attitudes towards saving behaviour? (2) To what extent does the match between these goals and traits affect actual saving behaviour? Findings confirmed that promotion‐oriented consumers were less likely to save for prevention goals, while the opposite was true for prevention‐oriented individuals. Further, consumers' saving goal and personality trait‐based regulatory focus were found to influence cognitive attitudes towards saving. The discussion focuses on how these findings and theoretical perspectives may predict and influence consumers' financial decision making.     

事业单位职工延迟退休年龄影响因素实证分析

本文以生命周期理论为依据,以事业单位职工作为实证研究的对象,对退休年龄的影响因素从个人特征、经济因素、工作因素、制度因素四个维度进行问卷调查,借助二元Logistic回归模型进行分析。结果显示,最适退休年龄、工龄、升职空间、继续工作意愿这4个因素均与职工延迟退休意愿的强烈程度呈正相关关系,退休后社会保障外收入则与延迟退休意愿呈负相关关系。     

基于MA2IDDPG算法的异构多无人机协同突防方法

为了形成智能化异构多无人机协同突防策略，提出了基于多智能体异步模仿深度确定性策略梯度算法的异构多无人机协同突防方法。首先，基于典型DDPG方法，采用异步并行框架进行改进，提高经验的收集效率。其次，分别构建基于专家经验知识的牵引性奖赏函数和基于任务结果的描述性奖赏函数。再次，通过分阶段训练后，使得深度神经网络产生的协同突防策略能够快速达到专家经验知识水平后，进一步提高对抗水平。最后，在仿真实验中，构建了异构多无人机协同突防环境，对改进方法和典型DDPG方法的对抗效果进行了对比。实验结果表明，MA2IDDPG方法能够有效产生多无人机协同突防策略，并且在训练阶段表现更为稳定且对抗效果更优。所设计的创新性MA2IDDPG方法框架可有效应用于无人机群控制领域，特别是对异构无人机群的智能控制方法研究具有重要参考意义。