延迟退休、生育政策调整与中国经济增长

政府在放松生育政策的同时，配合退休政策的调整具有重要的现实意义。通过构建延迟退休和生育调整的理论模型发现：从劳动力增量看，延迟退休能够产生即期效应，而生育调整具有滞后效应，且两者导致的劳动力增量差距呈现先扩大后缩小的特点，节点在2031年；从社会总负担看，在实行延迟退休后，总抚养比迅速下降到一个低水平位置；从总产出看，同时实施延迟退休和放松生育政策，经济中潜在的福利损失最小；从产出增速看，放开生育的同时配合延迟退休，经济增速下降最慢；从人均产出看，放开生育的同时最好配合延迟退休，否则人均收入提升的效果不如政策不变时效果。     

Which factors affect the sustainability of pension schemes?

This article seeks to determine the most influential factors on the sustainability of a pension system. To this end, an empirical analysis was conducted on a sample of 13 countries, with different characteristics, according to three criteria: the size of the pension system's assets, the old-age dependency ratio and the success of the system according to the Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index. The results of this preliminary study show that countries with successful pension systems share a high rate of formal employment, good political stability, high life expectancy at birth, and a good rate of coverage by the pension system.     

Do tax subsidies for retirement saving affect total private saving? New evidence on middle-income workers*

We exploit exogenous variation from a pension reform in Denmark to estimate the effect of tax subsidies on total private saving. We present new evidence on individuals in the middle of the income distribution and show that a reduction in tax subsidies for retirement saving reduces total private saving. The reform changed the tax incentives for saving in the pension scheme that holds the highest tax advantage for middle-income workers in Denmark. We find that for each unit of reduced saving in this pension scheme, only 64 percent is substituted to other types of saving.     

Retirement and health services utilization in a low-income country*

We estimate the causal effects of retirement on health services utilization in Vietnam. Using authorized retirement ages as instruments for exogenous changes in retirement, we find positive and strong effects of retirement on outpatient health services in the public health sector. Retirement increases the probability of an outpatient visit by 51 percentage points for males and 36 percentage points for females, and the frequency of outpatient visits by 1.4 times for males and 2 times for females. However, we find no effect on the use of public inpatient services as well as private health services.     

Welfare effects of automatic-IRAs

Several states require employers who do not offer retirement benefits to automatically enroll their employees in individual retirement accounts (IRAs). We quantify the welfare effects of this program for individuals who follow a rule-of-thumb to make savings decisions. We find workers who save more than 3% would be willing to give up 0%–1.4% of lifetime consumption to avoid an IRA. We also consider a fully rational model with credit frictions, stochastic income and pre-retirement withdrawals, and costly IRA opt-outs. We find that being enrolled in an IRA is most likely to benefit workers who do not borrow during the life-cycle.     

Commitment and discretion in contracts: theory and evidence from retirement plans*

We consider a firm's problem of incentivizing its workforce through relational contracts, when workers effectively face a shorter time horizon due to possible separation shocks. Commitment issues then generate a trade-off between efficiency and distribution, which affects both performance and profits. Profits under relational contracting can exceed those under formal contracting, despite lower performance, when discounting is moderate, firm bargaining power is weak, and shocks are likely. Using a matched employer–retirement plan dataset, and interpreting discretionary profit-sharing plans and employee stock ownership plans as relational and formal contracting, respectively, we find some support for our predictions.     

Fixed and variable longevity income annuities in defined contribution plans: Optimal retirement portfolios taking social security into account

This paper investigates retirees' optimal purchases of fixed and variable longevity income annuities using their defined contribution (DC) plan assets and given their expected social security benefits. As an alternative, we also evaluate using plan assets to boost social security benefits through delayed claiming. Using a calibrated life-cycle model, we determine that including deferred income annuities in DC accounts is welfare-enhancing for all sex/education groups examined. We also show that providing access to well-designed variable deferred annuities with some equity exposure further enhances retiree well-being, compared to having access only to fixed annuities. Nevertheless, for those facing the highest mortality rates, delaying claiming social security is mostly preferred, whereas those anticipating living longer than average will benefit more from using accumulated DC plan assets to purchase deferred annuities.     

Pension benchmarks: empirical estimation and results for the United States and Germany

Benchmark replacement rates are a key parameter for retirement plans. Often, a pension level of around 70 per cent of net income during working life is considered as an adequate choice. However, this heuristic value is left unjustified, and data-based benchmarks are limited. In this paper, we propose to estimate a pension-level benchmark based on keeping the living standard achieved during working life constant after retirement. Applying parametric, semi-parametric and non-parametric estimation methods to data from the United States and Germany, we find that a net pension income of around 100 per cent of the last net working-life income, plus or minus 10 percentage points, is required to keep the living standard constant. However, we also find that the outcome of the exercise can depend on how ‘living standards’ are measured.     

反隐身预警雷达的发展动态与新技术

预警雷达一直是战场防空和国土防御的基本装备之一，而隐身飞行器的出现迫使现代预警雷达必须提高其反隐身能力。首先从雷达的工作频率、目标的极化信息和非后向散射特性剖析了现代预警雷达的反隐身关键技术，然后根据不同的雷达体制对典型反隐身预警雷达进行分类综述，最后总结了多输入多输出、低截获概率、太赫兹超宽带、微波光子相控阵、第三代半导体和基于数学模型的网络优化等新技术的特点和难点，并展望了反隐身预警雷达需进一步研究的方向，以期为反隐身预警雷达相关设计人员提供一定的帮助和参考。     

延长退休年龄挤占就业岗位吗?——基于安徽省芜湖市的调查

随着经济发展,人们预期寿命的延长,中国人口老龄化问题也越来越突出,这在一定程度上给我国的社会保障制度带来了一系列影响。为缓解人口老龄化对于社会保障的压力,有学者提出延长退休年龄的设想。但延长退休年龄遭到了社会某些方面的质疑,主要顾虑是它会挤占当前的社会就业岗位。论文以安徽芜湖市为例,通过问卷调查方式对相关问题进行了实证检验,结果表明延长退休年龄并不会挤占社会就业,相反长期来看还会促进社会就业。