我国工业企业社会保险负担的区域差异分析——基于超越对数生产函数的实证研究

本文设计了企业社会保险负担率的指标,并根据超越对数生产函数构建了社会保险负担率的测算模型,分析了各地区工业企业的社会保险负担差异。结果表明：第一,我国工业企业社会保险负担从大到小依次是：中部、西部、东部、东北。与当前社会保险＂主要向西部地区和东北地区倾斜＂倾斜的政策取向存在一定差异。第二,各地区的企业社会保险负担位次,与企业利润水平位次负相关。因此确定企业社会保险缴费基数,应当综合考虑企业劳动报酬和利润水平因素。第三,企业社会保险负担位次与资本投入水平的位次负相关,企业社会保险负担增加将导致资本对劳动的替代,对就业问题产生一定影响。     

External finance and dividend policy: a twist by financial constraints

This study assesses distorting effect of financial constraints on the inverse relationship between internal and external finance by examining impact of an exogenous financing shock (i.e. a regulation released in China in 2008) on dividend policies in a quasi‐natural experimental setting. Our result shows that in the absence of the regulation, the inverse relationship holds. However, the relation is twisted by the 2008 regulation. Compared with unconstrained firms, financially constrained firms are more willing to pay dividends and are more restrained to reduce cash dividends after the regulation, despite the fact that their external financing capacities are further constrained.     

Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound

We show that conventional dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) estimated on recent U.S. data severely violate the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates and deliver poor forecasts of future short rates. In contrast, shadow‐rate DTSMs account for the ZLB by construction, capture the resulting distributional asymmetry of future short rates, and achieve good forecast performance. These models provide more accurate estimates of the most likely path for future monetary policy—including the timing of policy liftoff from the ZLB and the pace of subsequent policy tightening. We also demonstrate the benefits of including macroeconomic factors in a shadow‐rate DTSM when yields are constrained near the ZLB.     

Working Less and Bargain Hunting More: Macroimplications of Sales during Japan's Lost Decades

Standard New Keynesian models have often neglected temporary sales. In this study, we ask whether this treatment is appropriate. We use Japanese scanner data covering the last two decades and find a negative correlation between the frequency of sales and hours worked. We then construct a model that takes households' decisions regarding their allocation of time for work, leisure, and bargain hunting into account. We show that the decline in hours worked explains the rise in the frequency of sales. The real effect of monetary policy shocks weakens by around 40% due to temporary sales, but monetary policy still matters.     

被保险人自杀索赔问题的中美法律比较——解析新《保险法》第四十四条

各国保险法通常规定,人身保险合同的被保险人在合同成立或复效后的一段时间内自杀,保险人不承担赔偿保险金的责任。但该规定涉及三个争议点,即:被保险人死亡原因的举证责任分配;死亡原因的举证责任标准;自杀如是在精神疾病的控制下,保险人是否应该赔付。美国的处理方法是:人寿保险由保险人承担自杀的举证责任,意外伤害保险先由受益人证明被保险人死于意外,再由保险人承担证明自杀的举证责任。但死亡原因的证明标准各州不同,以适用优势证据原则为主,兼有适用排除合理疑问原则。当自杀是在精神疾病的控制下所为时,绝大多数州都依据现行的保单条款允许保险人拒赔,只有少数州在确认该精神疾病已使死者丧失辨别能力时要求保险人赔付。我国在2009年2月28日保险法修订前,对该问题的规定较为滞后,但在修改后有了很大提高,对该问题设定了较为妥帖的法律规范,为日后进一步完善奠定了坚实的基础。     

住房调控政策问题：质疑、解读与建议

在“住房是商品”的片面认识导引下,“一次房改”后住房体制陷入“商保失调”的另一个极端状态,导致房困问题难以破解并影响宏观经济可持续发展。针对于此,“国字号”住房调控政策密集出台,但由于未从“住房两板块”结构出发分类加以调控,某些层面的调控效果不尽人意,也由此受到质疑。本文对此进行解读并给出有关政策建议。     

Is econometrics useful for private policy making? A case study of replacement policy at an auto rental company

The goal of this paper is to illustrate the potential usefulness of econometrics as a tool to assist private policy makers. We provide a case study and detailed econometric analysis of the automobile replacement policy adopted by a large car rental company. Unlike public policy making–where the benefits from using econometric models and “science-based” approaches to policy making are hard to quantify because the outcomes of interest are typically subjective quantities such as “social welfare”–in the case of firms there is an objective, easily quantifiable criterion for judging whether policy A is better than policy B: profits. We introduce and estimate an econometric model of the rental histories of individual cars in the company’s fleet. Via stochastic simulations, we show that the model provides a good approximation to the company’s actual operations. In particular, the econometric model is able to reproduce the extraordinarily high rates of return that the company obtains on its rental cars, with average internal rates of return between purchase and sale of approximately 50%. However, the econometric model can simulate outcomes under a range of counterfactual vehicle replacement policies. We use the econometric model to simulate the profitability of an alternative replacement policy under pessimistic assumptions about the rate maintenance costs would increase and rental rates would have to be decreased if the company were to keep its rental cars longer than it does under the status quo. Depending on the vehicle type, we find that the company’s expected discounted profits would be between 6% to over 140% higher under the suggested alternative operating strategy where vehicles are kept longer and rental rates of older vehicles are discounted to induce customers to rent them. The company found this analysis to be sufficiently convincing that it undertook an experiment to verify the predictions of the econometric model.