Evaluating monetary policy under preferences with zero wealth effect: A Bayesian approach

Both real and monetary macro models have parallely exploited the potential for various preferences in accounting for empirical facts. This paper brings the two literatures together by estimating time non-separable preferences with habit formation in consumption that nests several commonly used preferences. In the absence of wealth effects and external habits, these preferences fail to generate observed inflation inertia and output persistence after a monetary policy shock. Furthermore, the data strongly rejects these preferences in favor of preferences with external habits. An alternative solution is to include habit adjusted intermediate wealth effect preferences which are able to simultaneously generate sluggish responses of the variables to a monetary policy shock and fit the data better.     

Selling Vertically Differentiated Products under One Roof or Two? A Signaling Model of a Retailer's Roof Policies

Retail firms commonly offer products of different quality levels to serve different consumer segments. In doing so, some firms adopt a “one-roof policy,” selling all of their products in one store, whereas others adopt a “two-roof policy” to better segment consumers, selling high-quality products in a high-end store and low-quality products in a separate, low-end store. Although roof policies are widely practiced and an important aspect of retail management, they are overlooked in the literature and thus not well understood. In this paper, we look at a multi-product retail firm and explore the implications of roof policy for its quality signaling strategies. In our model, the firm carries two vertically differentiated products to serve two consumer segments. We first demonstrate that when product quality is readily observable to consumers, a two-roof policy yields a greater profit than a one-roof policy if the benefit from segmentation outweighs the cost of an additional roof. Then, we assume that a proportion of consumers are uninformed about quality a priori. We show that under both policies, there exists an equilibrium in which the retailer uses both price and in-store services to signal quality. Surprisingly, now there are conditions under which a two-roof policy is outperformed by a one-roof policy, even if the cost of an additional roof is zero. This result sharply contrasts the conventional wisdom that segmentation is optimal as long as its associated marketing cost is low, and suggests the importance of quality information issues in roof policy decisions.     

大学生低碳消费行为影响机制与引导策略研究——基于ANP模型

发展低碳经济已经在世界各国达成普遍共识,低碳消费成为发展低碳经济不可或缺的重要组成部分。大学生作为未来社会主义事业的建设者和接班人,其日常生活活动对于经济社会的发展起着重要作用,其低碳消费行为制约影响着中国低碳经济发展的进程。本文采用ANP分析法,探讨影响其低碳消费的各项因素及机制,最后提出引导大学生低碳消费的策略和建议。     

Exchange Rate Crises and Fiscal Solvency

This paper combines insights from generation one currency crisis models and the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) to create a dynamic FTPL model of currency crises. The initial fixed‐exchange‐rate policy entails risks due to an upper bound on government debt and stochastic surplus shocks. Agents refuse to lend into a position for which the value of debt exceeds the present value of expected future surpluses. Policy switching, usually combined with currency depreciation, restores fiscal solvency and lending. This model can explain a wide variety of crises, including those involving sovereign default. We illustrate by explaining the crisis in Argentina (2001).     

货币政策透明性制度的国际比较:以央行沟通方式为基调

自20世纪90年代末期以来,世界绝大多数央行的货币政策透明性有了显著提高,但是未表现出一致性收敛特征。各国央行的货币政策信息沟通面临着不同程度的现实约束,有的央行在某些方面透明性还非常有限。在央行信息沟通方面还有许多值得研究的策略性、细节性技巧,处理不当就可能损害央行信誉。我国货币政策透明度还处于较低水平,需要进一步提高。     

Central bank transparency and financial market expectations: The case of emerging markets

In this paper, we study how central bank transparency influences the formation of money market expectations in emerging markets. The sample covers 25 countries for the period from January 1998 to December 2009. We find, first, that transparency reduces the bias (the difference between the money market rate and the weighted expected target rate over the contract period) in money market expectations. The effect is larger for countries with no exchange rate peg and countries with low income. Second, an intermediate level of transparency is found to have the most favorable influence on money market expectations: neither complete secrecy nor complete transparency is optimal. Finally, all subcategories of the Eijffinger and Geraats (2006) index lead to a smaller bias in expectations, with political transparency having the largest effect.     

Visitors’ acceptance of negative ecological impacts in national parks: comparing the explanatory power of psychographic scales in a Norwegian mountain setting

Even in protected areas, it is inevitable that any human use will produce some impact on natural resources. This study identifies visitors’ tolerance of potential negative ecological impacts from tourism activities and facilities in a Norwegian national park context, based on park visitors’ expressed degree of acceptance of negative effects on particular species of wildlife (wild reindeer and raptors) and on vegetation. Attitudes were analysed using psychographic scales, reflecting respondents’ nature orientations, their specific facility desires, their preferences in a wilderness setting and their concerns about human interaction with the natural environment. Fourteen research hypotheses were tested. Findings demonstrated that the psychographic scales explained more variation in attitudes than most social background and trip characteristics. Higher levels of education among visitors were strongly associated with increased ecological concern; age and gender were not. There was generally strong ecological awareness and eco-centrism among park visitors in general, with a small proportion of wilderness purists. Better trail conditions, signposting and interpretation were sought. But park visitors were also found to possess a complex mixture of needs and drivers. The study found significant potential for strategic alliances between tourism and conservation interests, and key value issues for park governance systems.     

腐败与公共支出结构问题研究——基于我国城市数据的实证分析

现有研究一致认为腐败会促使财政支出规模膨胀,导致公共支出结构扭曲。本文采用我国东、中、西部120个城市的经验证据,实证检验了地方政府腐败对公共支出结构的影响,并提出了相应的政策建议。实证研究发现,腐败显著提高了行政管理支出的比重,但其对经济建设支出相对规模的影响则是不确定的。     

Lone Mothers: What is to be done?

This Dialogue presents the views of four authors, from the US, the UK, and Norway, on the best policies to help lone mothers. Lone mothers face an inevitable dilemma in allocating their time between earning income and caring for their children. The low-earning capacity of women in an unequal labor market exacerbates the problem, causing material hardship for many lone mothers and their families. The policy solutions proposed lie along a spectrum, ranging from those that seek to enable all lone mothers to take employment to those that aim to let mothers choose whether to take employment or care for their children themselves. Other policies discussed concern ways to value and support caregiving, improve the low-wage labor market for women, and provide a set of income supports that would both boost income and provide time to care for children.     

价值链治理模式及其拓展研究

格里芬价值链治理模式是目前价值链治理理论中经典的理论模型,但是在新的历史背景下,在产业集群中存在着特定的人文因素和新时期行业协会、政府等公共机构政策都对价值链治理及其价值链上利润的分布产生了重要的影响。本文在格里芬价值链治理模式决定的因素上进行拓展,加入人文因素和公共机构权力因素来进一步完善其治理模式。