How should the use of nonrenewables be taxed under a public budget constraint?

Most developed countries will be facing severe public budget constraints. We examine how extraction or use of nonrenewable resources should be taxed when governments need to collect commodity tax revenues. Moreover, we show how our results can be directly used to indicate how carbon taxation of nonrenewable energy sources should be increased in the presence of public-revenue needs. The obtained tax formula is an augmented, dynamic version of the standard Ramsey taxation rule. It distorts developed reserves, which are reduced, and their depletion, which is slowed down, going further in the direction prescribed for the resolution of the climate externality. We present a simple calibrated application of our results to illustrate how carbon taxation of oil should be strongly augmented, and the incidence of this adjustment on oil use and tax revenues.     

增值税减税政策对企业投资的影响研究*——基于企业杠杆率差异的视角#br#

我国增值税改革持续深化，增值税减税的效果成为学界和政府关注的热点问题。由于产品供需存在弹性，企业无法将增值税税负完全转嫁给消费者，并且不同企业面临的借贷市场环境存在差异，因此增值税减税对企业投资的影响问题显得较为复杂。本文针对企业投资决策建模，发现增值税减税会增加企业投资，但杠杆率较高企业由于借贷市场受到约束，投资水平的提高弱于杠杆率低的企业。本文基于2016Q3-2019Q1上市公司的季度数据，利用双重差分模型实证分析显示，2018年增值税减税政策提高了企业的投资水平，且对固定资产投资的影响更为显著，但借贷市场的传导机制减弱了增值税减税政策对杠杆率较高企业投资的促进作用。     

Fishermen’s competitiveness and labour market performance: Evidence from shrimpers in Bangladesh

We conduct an experiment to determine competitiveness among shrimpers who engage in collecting shrimp seeds in the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh. We then examine how competitiveness affects the labour supply decisions and labour market performance of these shrimpers. Our results show that shrimpers who prefer competition are more productive than shrimpers who do not prefer competition. Competitive shrimpers secure better prices and earn higher incomes selling their catches. We estimate that their wage elasticity of participation ranges from 0.4 to 0.5, which is consistent with preferences under neoclassical assumptions. Competitive shrimpers have a slightly greater wage elasticity than non-competitive shrimpers, suggesting that they might be more responsive to expected earnings. Our results have important policy implications for the efficient management of common pool resources.     

Endogenous fertility cycles and childcare services

We construct a two-sector overlapping generation model with endogenous fertility, where one sector produces goods and the other produces childcare services. The elasticity of fertility-related expenditures on services is crucial for determining labor participation and whether fertility converges to a steady state with monotone or oscillation. If capital intensity in the goods sector is greater than the products of elasticity and capital intensity in the service sector, then capital per capita and fertility converge to a steady state monotonically. Conversely, they converge to a steady state with oscillations, otherwise. We find an inverse J-shaped relationship between fertility and elasticity.     

货币政策影响企业的成本结构吗?

微观主体对货币政策的反应直接决定其宏观调控效果.基于中国A股上市公司2010-18年36个季度数据,实证检验货币政策对企业成本结构的影响,发现:(1)短期内(1个季度),宽松的货币政策使成本弹性总体上升;(2)中长期(2～3个季度),宽松的货币政策使资本密集型企业成本弹性下降;(3)国有企业成本弹性下降早于非国有企业,且幅度更大.进一步地,宽松货币政策更易使融资依赖度高企业成本弹性下降.     

我国城市入境旅游需求的影响因素研究——基于上海长线市场的案例分析

基于5个主要长线市场（美国、澳大利亚、法国、德国、英国）的近19年年度数据，通过采用自回归分布滞后模型(ADLM)对影响上海入境旅游需求的主要因素进行分析，并运用“从一般到具体”(general-to-specific)的计量经济建模方法确定最终模型。分析结果表明，客源国的经济状况是上海入境旅游需求的重要决定因素，上海的旅游成本、“口碑效应“以及一些突发事件会对不同客源国入境旅游需求产生显著影响。最后通过对旅游需求弹性的分析为上海旅游产业政策制定提供了政策建议和实证依据。     

Employment to output elasticities and reforms towards flexicurity: Evidence from OECD countries

Labor market reforms in the direction of “flexicurity” have been widely endorsed as a means to increase an economy's ability to adjust to negative shocks while offering adequate social safety nets. This paper empirically examines how such reforms influence employment's responsiveness to output fluctuations (employment–output elasticity). To address this question, we employ a single equation error correction model with policy interactions on a panel of OECD countries, which also incorporates the period of the Great Recession, and distinguish between passive and active labor market policy types. Flexicurity is represented by three policy measures: unemployment benefit generosity, the flexibility of hiring and firing rules, and spending on active labor market policies. We find that the effects of any single policy change are shaped by the broader existing policy mix within which it takes place. A hypothetical flexicurity reform towards the policy mix of Denmark, a well-known example of the flexicurity regime, is found to increase or leave unchanged countries' short-run employment–output elasticities, depending on the initial policy mix. These results are robust to accounting for a large set of additional labor market institutions.     

Understanding the variation in estimates of off-farm labour supply elasticities: A meta-analysis

The design of rural development policies and government programmes in support of farm operations and farm households relies on precise estimates of off-farm labour supply elasticities. However, the wide variation in estimates dilutes their power to predict the magnitude of these targeted interventions. We perform a meta-analysis of estimates of off-farm labour supply elasticity to identify systematic factors that influence these estimates. A sample of 137 elasticities is obtained from 43 studies which use data ranging from 1960 to 2012. We examine theoretical assumptions, data availability and empirical specifications, and other study-specific characteristics. Controlling for potential publication bias, we estimate that the elasticity is approximately 0.64 to 0.77. Results of the analysis show that estimates are affected by modelling choices controlling for self-selection and life-cycle elements. However, we found no compelling evidence that study-specific characteristics of off-farm labour supply functions, including various measurements of labour supply, explain variation in the elasticities.     

Birth order and intergenerational income mobility in Japan: Is the first-born child different?

This study examines how birth order affects intergenerational income mobility (IGM) in Japan, focusing on the difference in IGM between firstborn and later-born children. The elasticities of sons’ income with respect to fathers’ income are separately estimated for sons who are firstborn and sons who are later born by family size using a two-sample, two-stage least squares approach. For sons born in 1926–1981, this study finds that in families with four or more children, intergenerational income elasticity (IGE) for firstborn sons is substantially and significantly higher than that for later-born sons. However, no significant birth order effects are found in households with two or three children.     

辽宁农业灌溉用水影响因素时空差异性研究

目的 文章基于2000—2019年辽宁农业灌溉用水相关数据，将农业灌溉用水压力、效率、用水价格、种植结构等因素纳入农业灌溉用水需求模型，估计各影响因素对农业灌溉用水需求的影响，更好地保障粮食和水资源安全。方法 利用时空地理加权回归模型研究辽宁各地级市农业灌溉用水影响因素作用的时空差异性。结果 （1）不考虑影响因素作用的时空差异性，用水价格和农村居民人均收入变动对辽宁农业灌溉用水需求的影响特别小。（2）考虑到影响因素作用的时空差异性，除了朝阳和大连，其余各地级市农业灌溉用水需求的价格弹性在2014年前后呈现出负向增大的态势，水价改革还有较大的效力空间。（3）辽宁农业灌溉用水效率和种植结构的回归系数在空间上呈现出中部低，四周高的特点。（4）城镇化程度对农业灌溉用水需求的影响呈现出由东北向西南逐渐递减，由正向较强逐渐向负向较强的演变。结论 依据辽宁农业灌溉用水的各影响因素的作用强度，种植结构、用水效率和城镇化程度是影响辽宁农业灌溉用水需求的主要因素，合理制定城镇化规划对该因素回归系数呈显著上升趋势的地级市尤为重要。