不同质量水平下的总质量成本研究

质量成本(COQ,Cost of Quality)是衡量提高质量活动的效果和效率的标准.COQ模型在质量成本研究中起着重要的作用.基于"6σ管理"中"持续改进"的思想和方法,用"kσ"作为质量水平(QL,Quality Level)的度量,笔者得到了不同质量水平下的动态总COQ模型.进而,还提供了不同质量水平下的总质量成本曲线.     

中国城市居民收入和储蓄增长对家庭能耗碳排放的区域异质性及政策应对

估计和预测城市居民收入变化对家庭能源消费碳排放的影响,对城市家庭消费部门构建低碳能源供应体系,应对气候变化具有重要意义。论文首先估计了中国284个地级以上城市的家庭三类能源消费的直接碳排放量,建立了面板固定效应模型来识别城市家庭能耗碳排放增长和变化的驱动因素。研究结果表明:城市居民收入的快速增长与储蓄水平的提高对于家庭碳排放有显著影响;城市家庭收入和储蓄的增加会抑制家庭燃气碳排放的产生,但对于城市家庭用电碳排放和城市家庭采暖碳排放,则表现出显著的推动作用。此外,研究还发现了家庭碳排放的影响因素存在显著的区域异质性。     

农村金融发展与农村经济增长——一个动态演化分析视角

农村金融发展对于农村经济增长具有重要的推动作用.运用1978-2010年的相关数据和时变参数模型估计方法,就我国农村金融发展与农村经济增长之间的动态关系进行探寻.首先,协整检验与误差修正模型的估计结果显示:无论是长期还是短期,农村金融发展规模对于农村经济增长具有正向促进作用,而农村金融中介效率却对农村经济增长起到了负向抑制作用.时变参数模型的估计结果则进一步发现:农村金融发展规模对农村经济增长的促进作用在整体上呈现弱化趋势,当前的正向作用机制比较微弱;而农村金融中介效率对农村经济增长的抑制作用经历了一个先减弱后增强的“倒V”型变化过程.     

内蒙古经济发展与工业污染关系的动态分析

本文结合内蒙古区情,对内蒙古经济发展和环境污染关系进行动态分析。首先,根据研究目的进行指标的选取。其次,构造经济发展综合指数,利用灰色预测模型对经济发展综合指数进行两期预测,进一步说明内蒙古经济发展情况。再次,运用单位根检验得出序列一阶差分后均平稳,属于同阶单整序列,满足协整检验的条件,由协整检验得出工业三废增速和经济增长率存在长期协整关系,通过用差分后的数据建立VAR模型进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析,得出经济发展和工业环境污染的双向作用机制：经济增长率与工业三废排放量增速互相有不同程度的正向冲击,工业三废之间作为有机整体互相影响从而加速工业环境的恶化。最后结合分析结果提出走新型工业化道路的对策。     

Technology level evaluation methodology based on the technology growth curve

Technology has been the driving force of development for knowledge-based economies. As competition in technology innovation among nations becomes more intense, there is a growing need for improved judgment, evaluation and prediction of scientific technology capacity in order to enhance national competitiveness. Until now, a country's technology level has been evaluated on a relative basis by comparing it with that of the country with the world's best technology. However, this kind of static methodology makes the interpretation of results unclear and makes time series analysis difficult. One of the most important limitations of this methodology is that it cannot be used to establish a strategy to improve the technology level. This paper examines the methodological problems of technology level evaluation and develops a dynamic methodology by applying the technology growth curve model. We also analyze the real technology level by using a new model application and review the relevance of this method. Finally, we discuss how to use the results in order to create a dynamic technology strategy.     

循环经济认知误区的实证分析

随着传统经济增长模式危机的出现，世界各国纷纷提出并开始建立循环经济。循环经济作为一种崭新的社会经济发展模式，人们对其认识还存在种种误区，其中认为循环经济是一种最终实现“全新的封闭式的零排放的资源利用方式”、“可解决一切环境问题”的观点最为典型。那么，是否真的存在完美的全社会物质循环呢？实现这种循环的代价是什么？本文以物质循环为基本假设条件，应用扩张环境分析用投入产出模型对社会实现全循环的可能性进行了理论探讨．并以日本为例应用该模型对日本物质循环现状和在现有条件下实现全循环的可能性及其成本进行了实证分析，论证了在现有条件下实现全社会完美的物质循环的难点。     

中国对拉美国家出口贸易影响因素实证分析——基于总量与技术结构视角

本文首先通过计算中国对拉美七国四类制成品出口密集度等,分析中国对拉美地区制成品出口结构;通过考察中国和拉美七国生产要素结构变化情况对中拉要素禀赋差异作深入分析,以期探究中国对拉美制成品出口结构背后深层次原因。然后构建扩展引力模型分别从总量视角和技术结构视角探析中国对拉美货物出口主要影响因素,结果显示拉美国家国内生产总值、中拉要素禀赋差异、中国货币自由度、中国对拉美直接投资水平对中国向拉美出口总量均产生显著促进作用,各影响因素对不同技术类别制成品出口的作用效果存在差异性。为实现中国对拉美出口贸易结构优化升级,推动中国产业结构调整升级,促进拉美地区经济更快发展,研究有针对性地提出了对策建议。     

Capital liquidity and residents’ consumption decision: An asymmetry analysis of economic prosperity

Among the current literatures that discuss the influence exerted on residents’ consumption behavior by capital liquidity, some often independently decide the demarcation point of the liquidity restriction that affects residents’ consumption behavior, without taking into account when the economy is flourishing whether residents will be influenced by the restriction of the liquidity that their consumption behaviors can not be fully carried out. We introduce a threshold model which varies according to the actual GDP and other financial indicators (money supply, average stock index and balance of bank loans) to discuss residents’ consumption behavior in China under different economic states. The empirical results show that when the economy flourishes or resuscitates, residents’ income of the same period have not notable influence on their consumption, which suggests that residents’ consumption behavior does not considerably change according to the fluctuation of the current income, but conforms with the constant income-life cycle hypothesis. Moreover, two estimated values 0.7504 and 0.8597, as economic boom measures, all fall in the boom stable stage—basically consists with the early-warning index of the macro-economy boom issued by National Bureau of Statistics of China. It shows that the macro-economic boom is not notablely influenced by capital liquidity, so is residents’ consumption behavior.     

ENDOGENOUS TIMING IN QUALITY CHOICES AND PRICE COMPETITION

We modify the price‐setting version of the vertically differentiated duopoly model by Aoki (2003) by introducing an extended game in which firms noncooperatively choose the timing of moves at the quality stage. Our results show that there are multiple equilibria in pure strategies, whereby firms always select sequential play at the quality stage. We also investigate the mixed‐strategy equilibrium, revealing that the probability of generating outcomes out of equilibrium is higher than the probability of playing one Nash equilibria in pure strategies. In the alternative case with full market coverage, we show that the quality stage is solved in dominant strategies and therefore the choice of roles becomes irrelevant as the Nash and Stackelberg solutions coincide. With full market coverage and corner solution, the results show that the game has a unique subgame perfect equilibrium in pure strategies, where the high‐quality firm takes the lead in the quality stage.     

基于多维评价模型的农业多功能性价值评估

农业多功能性理念有助于重新全面认识农业诸多功能并为其评价提供分析框架.文章在考虑农业各项功能间相互独立但冲突关系的基础上构建多维评价模型.结合数据可获得性、评价方法与指标选取原则,应用三维评价模型对我国农业的食物生产、经济和生态功能进行定量评价.应用因子分析法对三大功能的主要影响因子进行提取;根据三大功能的价值间不同组合类型,用分层聚类法将我国农业分为九类情景模式.研究结果显示,多维评价模型能够在充分利用现有统计数据的基础上,对农业的生产、经济和生态功能进行较准确的价值评估,模型模拟结果及情景聚类基本符合我国农业发展现状.该多维评价模型具有很大的灵活性,可用于其他领域中不同尺度的多目标价值评估.