八项计提与公司盈余管理的实证研究

本文以2001-2003年亏损上市公司作为样本,研究亏损公司如何利用八项计提进行盈余管理。实证结果发现扭亏公司在扭亏前一年多计提减值准备,而在扭亏当年大额冲销减值准备的现象。扣除减值准备的影响,扭亏公司中将有72%样本不能扭亏。     

沪蓉两地医疗费用与医疗保险损失水平与差异研究

医疗费用与医疗保险损失水平是商业医疗保险经营和社会医疗计划管理的基础。本文利用权威部门公布的信息、检索专题研究的文献和分析专题调查数据三类方法系统地研究了沪蓉两地医疗费用与医疗保险损失的真实水平,发现上海的医疗费用和医疗保险损失水平显著高于成都,约为后者的2倍。在分析造成沪蓉两地医疗费用与医疗保险损失水平差异可能原因的基础上讨论了上述发现对健康保险精算实践、商业医疗保险产品及社会医疗保险计划设计和管理上的启示与指导价值。     

Dirichlet process mixture models for insurance loss data

In the recent insurance literature, a variety of finite-dimensional parametric models have been proposed for analyzing the hump-shaped, heavy-tailed, and highly skewed loss data often encountered in applications. These parametric models are relatively simple, but they lack flexibility in the sense that an actuary analyzing a new data-set cannot be sure that any one of these parametric models will be appropriate. As a consequence, the actuary must make a non-trivial choice among a collection of candidate models, putting him/herself at risk for various model misspecification biases. In this paper, we argue that, at least in cases where prediction of future insurance losses is the ultimate goal, there is reason to consider a single but more flexible nonparametric model. We focus here on Dirichlet process mixture models, and we reanalyze several of the standard insurance data-sets to support our claim that model misspecification biases can be avoided by taking a nonparametric approach, with little to no cost, compared to existing parametric approaches.     

关于我国期货核算的几点思考

本文从目前我国期货核算的现状,比较美国的期货会计准则,浅谈对我国期货交易核算的几点思考。     

终极控制人性质与对价形成

在股权分置改革中,终极控制人性质是影响对价的重要因素,表现为:国有控股的上市公司对价显著地高于私有产权控制的上市公司;而中央政府控制的上市公司对价显著地低于地方政府控制的上市公司。在控制了其他可能影响对价的因素后,该结论依然稳健地存在。由于对价过高反映了大股东的损失,因此,本文的研究结论意味着,股权分置改革中可能存在国有资产流失问题,相对而言,中央政府、国资委对国有资产的监管更富有成效。     

A composite indicator model to assess natural disaster risks in industry on a spatial level

In the event of natural disasters, industrial production sites can be affected by both direct physical damage and indirect damage. The indirect damage, which often exceeds the direct ones in value, mainly arises from business interruptions resulting from the impairment of information and material flows as well as from domino effects in interlaced supply chains. The importance of industry for society and the domino effects often result in severe economic, social, and environmental consequences of industrial disasters making industrial risk management an important task for risk managers at the administrative level (e.g. civil protection authorities). Since the possible industrial disaster damage depends not only on hazard and exposure but also on the vulnerability of a system, an effective and efficient industrial risk management requires information about the system’s regionalized vulnerability. This paper presents a new methodology for structural industrial vulnerability assessment based on production factors that enables to assess the regional industrial disaster vulnerability. In order to capture industry-specific vulnerability factors and to account for the processes underlying regional industrial vulnerability, a two-stage approach is developed. This approach combines a composite indicator model to assess sector-specific vulnerability indices (V_s) with a new regionalization method. The composite indicator model is based on methodologies from the field of multicriteria decision analysis (MultiAttribute Value Theory) and the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Method is applied to correct the (V_s) for interdependencies among the indicators. Finally, the developed approach is applied to an exemplar case study and the industrial vulnerability of 44 administrative districts in the German federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg is assessed.     

非经常性损益研究综述

本文对非经常性损益相关文献进行了梳理和述评。从非常项目的具体内容及披露、非经常性损益与股票价格相关性、非经常性损益信息含量的研究、非经常性损益与盈余管理四个方面进行综述,在厘清非经常性损益研究脉络的同时,指出了进一步研究的方向与内容。     

Consideration Set:

Consideration set studies have been confined to consumer goods purchases under the developed country context. This research studied the consideration set during agricultural input purchase under a developing country context. Though a farmer-consumer is assumed to be lacking the knowledge to form the consideration sets, the results show that these buyers form consideration sets similar to those under the consumer goods buying situations in the developed countries and these were influenced positively by the economic risk and negatively by the level of education.     

GREED,LEVERAGE, AND POTENTIAL LOSSES: A PROSPECT THEORY PERSPECTIVE

This paper quantifies the notion of greed, and explores its connection with leverage and potential losses, in the context of a continuous‐time behavioral portfolio choice model under (cumulative) prospect theory. We argue that the reference point can serve as the critical parameter in defining greed. An asymptotic analysis on optimal trading behaviors when the pricing kernel is lognormal and the S‐shaped utility function is a two‐piece CRRA shows that both the level of leverage and the magnitude of potential losses will grow unbounded if the greed grows uncontrolled. However, the probability of ending with gains does not diminish to zero even as the greed approaches infinity. This explains why a sufficiently greedy behavioral agent, despite the risk of catastrophic losses, is still willing to gamble on potential gains because they have a positive probability of occurrence whereas the corresponding rewards are huge. As a result, an effective way to contain human greed, from a regulatory point of view, is to impose a priori bounds on leverage and/or potential losses.     

Extreme dependence of multivariate catastrophic losses

Natural catastrophes cause insurance losses in several different lines of business. An approach to modelling the dependence in loss severities is to assume that they are related to the intensity of the natural disaster. In this paper we introduce a factor model and investigate the extreme dependence. We derive a specific extreme dependence structure when considering an heavy-tailed intensity. Estimation procedures are presented and their moderate sample properties are compared in a simulation study. We also motivate our approach by an illustrative example from storm insurance.