Revisiting Cash Endowment and House Money Effects in an Experimental Auction of a Novel Agri‐food Product in the Philippines

This study explores the effect of varying cash endowments on bidding behavior in auction experiments conducted in a developing country. Our results suggest that cash endowment levels can have different effects on bidding behavior under second price auction and random nth price auction. In contrast to past studies conducted in developed countries, we generally do not see the presence of positive house money effect in our results. If behavior varies significantly as the cash endowment is varied, then care must be taken when designing auction experiments or when comparing results to other experimental results and theoretical predictions.     

防内外部窃听的多播物理层安全算法

针对无线多播系统同时存在内、外部窃听者的复杂情况,提出随机化干扰的物理层多播安全传输算法。该算法基于收发天线构成信道的代数空间进行设计：一方面在内部窃听者的信道代数空间方向上不发送信息,另一方面在合法用户信道的正交方向上引入随机干扰信号。这样直接使得内部窃听者接收的信号受到能量削减的同时,非合法用户受到随机化干扰,最终实现了物理层多播信息的安全传输。理论分析和仿真结果表明,算法可同时保证系统内、外部窃听者极高的误码率,从而无法获取信息。     

基于m-序列的二元零相关区序列构造新方法

基于伪随机序列,提出一种二元零相关区序列构造方法。该方法利用伪随机序列的游程特性,通过在伪随机序列的适当位置进行插值,使生成的序列具有一定长度的零相关区。为了提高序列的丰富性,提出两种扩展方法：一种基于交织技术,通过构造移位序列,使交织序列的周期增大而零相关区不变;另一种方法将零相关区序列与Hadamard矩阵的行向量按位相乘,该方法能够增加零相关区序列数量的同时不改变序列的周期。数值仿真证明了所提方法的有效性。     

一种新的LFM引信距离欺骗干扰抑制算法

针对线性调频（LFM）引信距离欺骗干扰问题,研究了一种结合随机调斜率和盲分离（BSS）的干扰抑制方法。该方法采用区别对待机制,首先采用随机调斜率,使敌方不易获取引信信号关键参数,从而可以通过简单的匹配滤波方法进行抗干扰。在随机调斜率失效的情况下再采用盲分离算法分离回波和干扰,然后根据频谱的连续性原理获取完整分离信号,最后根据数字射频存储（DRFM）相位量化的特性来区分回波和干扰。实验仿真表明,在干扰信号调斜率达到4%误差以上时随机调斜抗干扰具有很好的效果,且算法中很少（小于10%）会采第二种盲分离算法,因而运算量大为降低,可为引信抗欺骗干扰提供重要的实际参考。     

基于向量理论的随机变量分解

在向量空间理论应用于概率论研究的基础上,讨论了随机变量作为向量的分解问题,得到了随机变量的分解定理,并利用分解定理给出了二维随机变量相关系数的几何意义。     

我国寿险公司绩效影响因素实证研究

以我国32家寿险公司1999-2006年的资产负债表和损益表为基础,本文运用主成分分析法得到了各个公司的绩效评分,以绩效评分为被解释变量,运用随机效应模型分析发现费用率、赔付率、投资资产比例和保费收入增长率对寿险公司绩效有显著影响,而人力资本、保险公司规模和公司是否为中资公司对寿险公司绩效影响不显著。     

资本跨期效应下中国区域 能源—经济—环境效率研究

本文运用含有动态要素的SBM方向性距离函数测度了资本动态效应下中国30个省份1998—2011年的能源—经济—环境（3E）效率及其成分,并利用随机效应面板Tobit模型分析了3E效率的影响因素。主要结论有：将30个省份分为表现最好、稳中有升、稳中有降、进步最快和表现最差五个组,并分别基于其特点制定相应的3E发展战略;考虑资本跨期效应,可以从技术上避免资本存量和其他要素的效率被低估;环境排放效率都是3E效率提升的制约因素,我国各省（市区）减排工作的压力远远大于节能和经济增长工作的压力;经济发展、产业制度、创新效率、能源强度、禀赋结构、能源结构、引进外资程度、环境管制力度对我国3E效率有显著影响,地方财政支出和就业人员教育程度则能显著提升能源投入和环境排放效率。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

车联网中基于网络编码的优先级信息分发方案

车联网中信息的共享尤其是紧急信息的分发至关重要。然而,传统的广播方式易引起网络风暴,导致信息传输时延高,预警效果差。为了实现海量信息的共享以及紧急信息的快速分发,提出了一种基于优先级的信息网络编码算法（Priority-based Information Network Coding Algorithm,PINCA）,根据信息类别确定优先级别,优先对高优先级数据包进行线性网络编码与传输。仿真结果表明,相同仿真环境下,采用所提的PINCA时,紧急信息传输时延比现有传输方案下的时延减小了至少23.494 4 ms,同时算法的时间复杂度也低于现有方案,可应用于路边设备稀疏的车联网系统中。     

Factors explaining the low and variable profitability of fertilizer application to maize in Zambia

It is widely recognized that an “African green revolution” will require greater use of inorganic fertilizers. Often‐made comparisons note that fertilizer use rates in Africa are just 10–20% of those in Asia, Europe and the Americas. Most attempts to explain relatively low‐adoption of fertilizer assume yield responses to inorganic fertilization warrant higher application rates and hypothesize that observed use rates are limited by market‐based factors. Another explanation may be that application rates are low because African yields are less responsive to inorganic fertilizer than yields in other regions, and less responsive than analysts perceive. Examining the case of Zambia, we evaluate whether yield response to fertilizers could explain adoption and application rates. A model of yield response is constructed and a combination of estimators is employed to mitigate potential biases related to correlation between fertilizer use and unobserved heterogeneity as well as stochastic shocks. Results indicate higher fertilization rates would be marginally profitable or unprofitable in many cases given commercial fertilizer and maize prices. Phosphoric fertilizer is particularly unprofitable on acidic soils, which are common in Zambia and other areas of sub‐Saharan Africa. We propose feasible recommendations for diversifying the current government strategy to enhance crop productivity.