机器类设备基于不同时延需求分组的随机接入方法

针对大规模机器类通信中拥塞导致的时延敏感设备时延高和接入成功率低的问题,提出将小区中设备按时延要求分组,对不同组设备引入不同的退避模型,分析时延敏感设备的时延和吞吐量,按照不同组中设备的时延需求动态分配前导数目,同时通过调整接入类限制因子实现吞吐量的优化。仿真结果表明,在给定时延敏感设备的时延限制条件时,与统一退避的机制对比,所提分组机制的时延敏感设备能够满足时延要求,并且提高了接入效率。     

基于机器学习的斜坡堤越浪量预测方法研究

针对斜坡堤越浪量预测方法,分别建立集成神经网络(ensemble neural network,ENN)、随机森林(random for-eset,RF)和支持向量回归机(suppport vector regression,SVR)3种机器学习模型对斜坡堤越浪量进行预测,并利用决定系数R2和均方根误差RMSE来评估模型性能.最后,对3种模型的性能进行分析.结果显示,集成神经网络模型的决定系数R2和均方根误差RM S E分别约为0.96和0.0018,随机森林模型的决定系数R2和均方根误差RMSE分别约为0.97和0.0014,支持向量回归机模型的决定系数R2和均方根误差RMSE分别约为0.94和0.002.对比发现,3种模型的决定系数都达到0.9以上,都具有较高的预测精度,随机森林相比其他两个模型精度更高.     

Incentives and teacher effort

Few would contest that teachers are a very important determinant of how much students learn in school, and how to improve teacher performance has been the focus of lively policy debate in both rich and poor countries. This paper examines how teacher incentives, both pecuniary and non‐pecuniary, correlate with teacher effort. Using school survey data from Lao PDR, we estimate measures of teacher effort, including the number of hours that teachers spend preparing for classes and teacher provision of private tutoring outside of class hours, which are not the typical measures used in previous research. Estimation results fit well under the standard labour supply framework and indicate that greater teacher effort is associated with non‐pecuniary incentives such as more teacher autonomy over teaching materials and monitoring as measured by the existence of an active parent – teacher association and the ability of school principals to dismiss teachers. Methodologically, this paper provides a detailed derivation of a simultaneous OLS‐probit model with school random effects that can jointly estimate teacher work hours and tutoring provision.     

Sociological Models Based on Fréchet Random Variables

Products of random variables are of both practical and theoretical significance to social scientists. This has increased the need to have available the widest possible range of statistical results on products of random variables. In this note, the distribution of the product XY is derived when X and Y are independent Fréchet random variables. Extensive tabulations of the associated percentage points are also given.     

Bartlett correction to the likelihood ratio test for MCAR with two‐step monotone sample

Assuming that two‐step monotone missing data is drawn from a multivariate normal population, this paper derives the Bartlett‐type correction to the likelihood ratio test for missing completely at random (MCAR), which plays an important role in the statistical analysis of incomplete datasets. The advantages of our approach are confirmed in Monte Carlo simulations. Our correction drastically improved the accuracy of the type I error in Little's (1988, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83 , 1198–1202) test for MCAR and performed well even on moderate sample sizes.     

Conditional assessment of the impact of a Hausman pretest on confidence intervals

In the analysis of clustered and longitudinal data, which includes a covariate that varies both between and within clusters, a Hausman pretest is commonly used to decide whether subsequent inference is made using the linear random intercept model or the fixed effects model. We assess the effect of this pretest on the coverage probability and expected length of a confidence interval for the slope, conditional on the observed values of the covariate. This assessment has the advantages that it (i) relates to the values of this covariate at hand, (ii) is valid irrespective of how this covariate is generated, (iii) uses exact finite sample results, and (iv) results in an assessment that is determined by the values of this covariate and only two unknown parameters. For two real data sets, our conditional analysis shows that the confidence interval constructed after a Hausman pretest should not be used.     

Random Walks and Market Efficiency Tests: Evidence from Emerging Equity Markets

We use the multiple variance-ratio test of Chow and Denning (1993) to examine the stochastic properties of local currency- and US dollar-based equity returns in 15 emerging capital markets. The technique is based on the Studentized Maximum Modulus distribution and provides a multiple statistical comparison of variance-ratios, with control of the joint-test's size. We find that the random walk model is consistent with the dynamics of returns in most of the emerging markets analyzed, which contrasts many random walk test results documented with the use of single variance-ratio techniques. Further, a runs test suggests that most of the emerging markets are weak-form efficient. Overall, our results suggest that investors are unlikely to make systematic nonzero profit by using past information in many of the examined markets, thus, investors should predicate their investment strategies on the assumption of random walks. Additionally, our results suggest exchange rate matters in returns' dynamics determination for some of the emerging equity markets we analyzed.     

应用ANSYS建立再生混凝土随机骨料模型的方法研究

通过对再生混凝土粗骨料成份的分析,初步提出将再生粗骨料大致分为以附着砂浆石子为主要成分并含有少量砂浆块和砖块杂质,并确定某批次再生粗骨料中各类骨料的百分含量。应用ANSYS的APDL参数化编程,结合蒙特卡罗方法和富勒级配理论,从细观层次上生成再生混凝土各类骨料的二维圆形与三维球形随机骨料模型,并赋予各类骨料的材料属性。然后根据选定的单元类型进行有限元网格的划分,通过判断各单元与骨料形心的位置关系来识别砂浆基质与骨料之间的界面单元,并赋予它相应的材料属性。从而建立起再生混凝土的数值模拟试件,为今后在ANSYS中直接对其进行加载求解,以此来模拟各种力学性能试验提供了必要的基础。     

Might randomization in queue discipline be useful when waiting cost is a concave function of waiting time?

This paper suggests that introducing randomization in queue discipline might be welfare enhancing in certain queues for which the cost of waiting is a concave function of waiting time. Concavity can make increased variability in waiting times good not bad for aggregate customer welfare. Such concavity may occur if the costs of waiting asymptotically approach some maximum or if the customer incurs a fixed cost if there is any wait at all. As examples, cost might asymptotically approach a maximum for patients seeking organ transplants who will not live beyond a certain threshold time, and fixed costs could pertain for knowledge workers seeking a piece of information that is required to proceed with their current task, so any delay creates a “set up charge” associated with switching tasks.