银行信贷顺周期性的微观行为特征与优化控制——基于青岛市大数据平台

银行信贷管理具有明显的周期性,尤其是在经济下行期银行的＂避险＂行为比较突出。基于青岛市大数据平台,本文对经济下行期银行信贷管理行为进行研究,力图总结出银行的微观行为特征。本文认为银行的风险敏感度和预见度并不高,行为多表现出短期应激性,主要表现是前置性强势和风险处置弱势的双重特征,并且银行在对待周期性行业和非周期性行业方面呈现出较大差异。银行的行为特征有其内在组织和市场根源因素,通过对根源因素开展可控性分析,对其优化控制可以缓解银行信贷的顺周期性。     

苹果中腐霉利残留快检测定及方法评估

本研究以阿克苏苹果样品中腐霉利的残留为研究对象,采用行业标准《蔬菜和水果中有机磷、有机氯、拟除虫菊酯和氨基甲酸酯类农药多残留的测定》(NY/T 761—2008)为参比方法,分别选取3家快检试剂盒测定苹果样品中添加的不同浓度腐霉利标品,根据《食品快速检测方法评价技术规范》对其快检适用性进行评估。结果显示,试剂盒A与试剂盒C在0.3 mg·kg^-1浓度以上呈阳性结果,灵敏度为75%、特异性为100%、假阴性率为25%、假阳性率为0;试剂盒B在0.1 mg·kg^-1以上呈阳性结果,其灵敏度为100%、特异性为50%、假阴性率为0、假阳性率为50%;3家试剂盒的显著性差异均为83.33%、相对准确度为8.1%。所选试剂盒适用于苹果中腐霉利残留量的快速筛查。     

苹果中多菌灵的快速测定及方法评估

为评估苹果中多菌灵残留快检试剂盒的适应性,本文以《水果、蔬菜中多菌灵残留的测定高效液相色谱法》（GB/T 23380—2009）为参比方法,选择3家公司生产的快检试剂盒,以《食品快速检测方法评价技术规范》为依据,对快检方法在苹果中的适用性进行评估。结果表明,试剂盒1的灵敏度为66.67%,特异性为100%,假阴性率为33.33%,假阳性率为0,显著性差异为8.1,相对准确率为80%。试剂盒2的灵敏度为100%,特异性为66.67%,假阴性率为0,假阳性率为33.33%,显著性差异为8.1,相对准确率为80%。试剂盒3的灵敏度为100%,特异性为50%,假阴性率0,假阳性率为50%,显著性差异为8.1,相对准确率80%。     

Are USDA reports still news to changing crop markets?

This study investigates whether major USDA reports still provide important news to changing crop markets. The news component of each report, or market “surprise,” is measured as a difference between the USDA estimate and its private expectation in corn, soybeans, and wheat markets. Changes in the relevance of USDA information are assessed by examining changes in the magnitude of market surprises and shifts in the futures price reaction to these surprises, which isolates the impact of each report. The stable size of market surprises over time suggests that competition from alternative data sources has not reduced the news component of USDA crop reports. Increasing price reaction to most reports, including those facing competition from alternative information sources, suggests that value of public information may be enhanced in uncertain markets affected by structural changes.     

产权性质、企业精准扶贫行为与资本市场反应

以2015~2018年A股上市公司为研究对象，考察企业精准扶贫行为动因与方式选择及所引起的市场反应。结果发现：国有企业和政治关联民营企业精准扶贫更积极，但两者精准扶贫方式存在差异，国有企业更倾向整合型精准扶贫，政治关联民营企业则倾向慈善型精准扶贫。进一步，企业参与精准扶贫产生了积极市场反应；相较国有企业，民营企业精准扶贫产生的市场反应更积极，尤其体现在政治关联民营企业中。同时，扶贫方式及扶贫持续性对精准扶贫信息披露的市场反应有影响。     

UK's stock market reaction to Brexit process: A tale of two halves

We examine the UK's stock market reaction to 27 events associated with the likelihood of Brexit. Though the overall market reactions to these events is negative, a dissection of these events into the pre and post Brexit referendum events unearth interesting facts. In particular, we find that the market reaction is negative and significant to the events leading up to and including the announcement of Brexit results. This negative reaction is not confined to the day of announcement of the outcome of Brexit referendum only rather it spans over the events that enhanced the likelihood of the Brexit in the pre-Brexit referendum period. However, our results show a positive market reaction to events that occurred after the Brexit referendum. These findings suggest that initially market reacted negatively to the Brexit; however, as the UK's future economic relations with EU started to take a shape, the market started to see the positive side of Brexit. Consistent with this notion, our cross-sectional analysis shows a positive market reaction for the firms that are engaged in foreign sales and that much of the negative market's reaction relates to the firms that openly stated the negative effect of Brexit on their operations. Finally, we do not find evidence of market reaction to UK firms depending on European labor force; however, we do find significantly positive stock market reaction to the firms involved more in international trade. An important caveat of our study is that our reported results are sensitive to the choice of market index.     

The information content of funds from operations and net income in real estate investment trusts

This study compares the information content of funds from operations (FFO) and net income (NI) in the real estate investment trust (REIT) industry. We find that models using FFO explain more of the variance in cumulative abnormal returns around earnings announcement dates than models using NI do. We also find that the information content of FFO differs across REITs of different sizes. FFO does not provide useful information to investors in the case of large REITs. Finally, we show that the gain or loss from sales of property is relevant to valuing large REITs.     

股权再融资与企业现金分红

股权再融资往往意味着企业存在大量的融资需求,而实践中普遍存在的股权再融资后立即现金分红的现象有悖于募集资金的优序使用原则。基于此,本文从管理层自利视角出发,在对企业股权再融资后现金分红的行为偏好检验的基础上,进一步选取管理层薪酬增长率和企业股权质押活动作为管理层自利程度的代理变量,探索企业股权再融资后现金分红倾向的边界条件,为该行为背后的代理动机提供证明。基于2007~2017年所有A股上市公司样本,研究发现,企业的确存在股权再融资后立即现金分红的行为倾向;而较低的管理层薪酬增长率和企业股权质押活动会加剧企业股权融资对现金分红的促进作用。进一步研究发现,企业股权再融资活动会给现金分红带来消极的市场反应。上述研究结果表明,管理层自利是股权再融资的重要推动因素,而这一行为会给企业利益造成损害。     

吐温80在油脂类调味品中微生物检测的研究分析

通过对牛肉酱、红油2种即食油脂类调味品进行微生物检测,将不同比例的吐温80添加到样品前处理的稀释液中,采用浓度为107 CFU·mL-1的标准菌悬液,用常规细菌培养法检测结果。结果表明:选用比例为5%的吐温80对牛肉酱、红油的微生物指标进行检测,检测结果均在107 CFU·mL-1,与空白对照的检测结果在同一数量级上。与常规的稀释液相比,吐温80可使样品均匀分散在稀释液中,且不影响微生物的检测结果,可适用于高油脂类样品的日常微生物检测。     

深化增值税改革的市场反应及影响因素

运用事件研究法和多元回归法考察 “深化增值税改革”（2018年3月28日国务院常务会议）的市场反应及其影响因素。结果表明：尽管中美“贸易战”对股市产生了较大的负面影响,但投资者仍将“深化增值税改革”视为利好消息,且试点行业的市场反应都显著为正。从市场反应影响因素来看,研发支出越多、融资约束越强的公司市场反应更好。此外,进一步细分公司特征发现,高税收敏感度和高产品市场竞争程度的公司市场反应更加积极,存在超额雇佣且研发支出较高以及不存在超额雇佣但融资约束较高的公司市场反应也更加积极。