促进中国经济长期持续均衡增长中的公共投资因素 ——基于1 489份调查问卷的统计分析

根据对北京等7个城市的1 489份调查问卷分析我国长期经济增长中的公共投资问题,发现制约和促进中国经济持续均衡增长的最主要因素是技术进步;为促进中国经济长期持续均衡增长,公共投资最主要作用是引导战略产业成长,公共投资最应该投向的领域是“科教文体卫”等公益项目,公共投资与GDP最合适比例应在10%左右,公共投资最应该发挥的是社会福利效应等,并提出提升公共投资促进中国经济长期持续均衡增长的相关政策建议。     

Analysts’ stock recommendations,earnings growth and risk

A key output of sell‐side analysts is their recommendations to investors as to whether they should, buy, hold or sell a company's shares. However, relatively little is known regarding the determinants of those recommendations. This study considers this question, presenting results that suggest that recommendations are dependent on analysts’ short‐term and long‐term earnings growth forecasts, as well as on proxies for the analysts’ unobservable views on earnings growth in the more distant future and risk. Furthermore, analysts who appear to incorporate earnings growth beyond the long‐term growth forecast horizons and risk into their recommendation decisions make more profitable stock recommendations.     

北京市农村集体经济组织产权制度改革模式与政策建议

近几年来,北京市大力推进以“资产变股权、农民当股东”为基本方向,以发育社区股份合作制为主要形式的农村集体经济组织产权制度改革,形成了“近郊全面推开,远郊扩大试点”的局面。本文总结了北京市农村集体经济组织产权制度改革的四种模式,分析了在改革的实践过程中出现的各种矛盾和问题,提出了进一步推进北京市农村集体经济组织产权制度改革应坚持的基本原则和政策建议。     

中国上市公司担保行为的实证分析

本文描述和分析了中国上市公司担保行为的统计特征，并对影响中国上市公司担保行为产生的因素进行了实证分析。本文的主要结论是：中国上市公司的担保行为具有保证担保偏好和连续性特征；上市公司通过担保行为承担了本应由银行承担却最终被银行转嫁的对担保贷款风险进行识别和评判的职能；上市公司提供担保的行为使上市公司和银行之间同时存在严重的道德风险和逆向选择问题，相互担保行为使上市公司之间存在严重的逆向选择问题；监管层第一次颁布的监管上市公司担保行为的政策负面影响较大，第二次颁布的政策在金融监管的配合下收效显著。本文还就如何规范中国上市公司担保行为提出了相应的政策建议。     

The Impact of NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 on Analyst Behavior: The Strategic Timing of Recommendations Issued on Weekends

Amendments to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472, enacted in May 2002, mandate that sell‐side analysts disclose the distribution of their security recommendations by buy, hold and sell category. This regulation enhances the transparency of analysts’ information and mitigates the long‐recognized optimistic bias in their recommendations. However, we find that analysts are more likely to issue sell recommendations or downgrade revisions on weekends when investors have limited attention after these rule changes. This pattern is more pronounced for prestigious analysts, who are more likely to influence stock prices. Market reaction tests reveal an incomplete immediate response and a greater drift to unfavorable recommendations issued on weekends. Finally, analysts who are more likely to release unfavorable recommendations on weekends exhibit higher future forecast accuracy. Our findings suggest that, while these regulatory changes effectively reduce analysts’ optimistic bias, they are also associated with an increased prevalence of a different form of distortion in the capital market.     

The influence of buy-side analysts on mutual fund trading

We present evidence on the trading and performance impact of buy-side analysts. Using data provided by a large global asset manager, we relate buy-side analysts’ recommendations to fund transactions on a daily basis. We show that buy-side analysts significantly influence trading decisions: Fund managers strongly follow recent recommendation revisions, even after controlling for other trading determinants. Positive abnormal returns to buy-side analysts’ revisions are also reflected in the performance of mutual fund trades: Trades triggered by buy-side recommendations have higher returns than other trades. Overall, the impact of buy-side analysts is more pronounced than that of sell-side analysts.     

解决县域小型微型企业融资难的几点建议

县域小型微型企业受自身经营管理水平低、金融体系不健全、融资渠道单一、政策支持不到位等多种因素影响,融资存在一定困难。本文首先介绍了小微企业资金供需现状,然后分析了小微企业融资难的原因,最好给出了相关政策建议。     

Analysts’ Momentum Recommendations

We document that the likelihood of analyst recommendations following past stock returns decreased abruptly in 2003, coinciding with the Global Settlement and other regulatory changes designed to restrain analysts’ conflicts of interest. We also document that the likelihood of recommendations following past stock returns is abnormally high for recommendations issued after negative stock returns (but not for those issued after positive stock returns), among inexperienced and inaccurate analysts, among large brokerage houses, and for companies with high share turnover. Moreover, the recommendations that are more likely to follow past stock returns are accompanied by earnings forecast revisions that are larger in magnitude and less accurate ex post. Overall, our findings suggest that analysts with conflicts of interest and limited ability are more likely to base their recommendations on past stock returns. Finally, we document that the recommendations that are more likely to follow past stock returns (especially those that were issued before 2003 and those that are issued after negative stock returns) contribute to existing price momentum by generating incrementally stronger short‐term and long‐term stock returns.     

基于论文词频分析的国低碳经济研究评价

近几年来“低碳经济”成为学界研究热点,为了评价中国低碳经济研究的现状,以2003-2011年代表性核心期刊论文、优秀硕士和博士论文为评价资源,确立评价指标,运用词频分析法进行统计,得出如下基本结论:中国低碳经济研究主体相对集中、研究主题过于分散、研究整体处在初级阶段、定量分析方法运用较少和研究资助力度不够.为解决上述问题,建议期刊、研究机构、研究者和政府共同协作,以提高中国低碳经济研究质量.