服务补救后顾客满意驱动机制的实证研究——基于电子商务背景下对感知风险和购物经验调节效应的剖析

服务补救已得到实践界和理论界的广泛重视,然而电子商务条件下有关服务补救后顾客满意的驱动机制的研究目前却十分有限。文章率先从期望不一致性的视角探讨了服务补救措施驱动顾客满意的作用机制,并检验了其所扮演的中介角色。同时,探讨并验证了电子商务条件下的一些情境因素(感知风险)对服务补救和期望不一致性之间关系的调节作用,以及购物经验对服务补救和顾客满意之间关系的调节作用,从而弥补了现有相关研究中存在的不足。     

基于信息不对称非上市公司贷款违约研究

针对非上市企业融资困难的现状,从信息不对称角度出发,采用贷款抵押,利用修正的自由现金流模型估计非上市企业的价值,并结合企业的债务结构,建立了信息不对称下非上市企业信用风险模型,建立了企业的违约概率的预测模型,探讨了企业最大债务规模,并分析了贷款违约挽回率。     

Linkages Between Switching Barriers and Service Recovery Evaluation: An Indian Exploration

ABSTRACT

This study attempts to investigate the relationship between switching barriers and service recovery evaluation of consumers in Indian context. Empirical findings of the present study provided useful insights. The primary statistical techniques used in the study were correlation analysis and exploratory factor analysis. A total of 347 respondents completed the field survey, and the survey was conducted in Dehradun, Uttrakhand. It was found from the results of correlation analysis that compensation and promptness constructs had comparatively high correlation coefficients with overall service recovery evaluation in comparison to employee behavior construct. Another insightful finding of the study provided evidence for a significant relationship between service recovery evaluation and positive switching barriers, but at the same time there was no evidence for a relationship between service recovery evaluation and negative switching barriers.     

Term structure modelling of defaultable bonds

In this paper we present a model of the development of the term structure of defaultable interest rates that is based on a multiple-defaults model. Instead of modelling a cash payoff in default we assume that defaulted debt is restructured and continues to be traded.The term structure of defaultable bond prices is represented in terms of defaultable forward rates similar to the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) (Heath et al., 1992) approach, and conditions are given under which the dynamics of these rates are arbitrage-free. These conditions are a drift restriction that is closely related to the HJM drift restriction for risk-free bonds, and the restriction that the defaultable short rate must always be not below the risk-free short rate. In its most general version the model is set in a marked point process framework, to allow for jumps in the defaultable rates at times of default.Financial Assistance by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Sonderforschungsbereich 303, at the University of Bonn and the DAAD is gratefully acknowledged.I thank Pierre Mella-Barral, David Lando and David Webb for helpful conversations, and the participants of the FMG Conference on Defaultable Bonds (March 1997) in London and the QMF 97 conference in Cairns for helpful comments. All errors are of course my own.     

Design and Implementation of Return on Capital Employed Performance Indicators Within a Trading Regime: The Case of Executive Agencies

The financial regime under which trading executive agencies operate implies that return on capital employed (ROCE) is used to indicate that revenues meet but do not exceed costs, including the cost of capital; that is, that there is neither cross-subsidisation nor hidden taxation. This paper develops a model for measuring ROCE derived from this objective. It argues that users of ROCE indicators are likely to lack financial sophistication and to want to compare performance between entities, so that indicators should be clear, readily understandable and comparable. The range of measurement and presentation methods used in practice undermines clarity and comparability and some methods are inconsistent with the model. Performance is sometimes characterised as meeting the target when this is problematic. The paper also examines outturn performance and finds some very substantial excess returns, implying hidden taxation.     

浅述我国废旧聚氯乙烯的回收与利用

综述了废旧聚氯乙烯循环利用的一些方法,包括直接再生、改性再生、裂解及焚烧,详细介绍了PVC的改性再生利用的方法.并对国内外的回收与利用情况作了简要介绍.     

MODELLING THE ADAPTATION OF BUSINESS CONTINUITY PLANNING BY BUSINESSES USING NEURAL NETWORKS

Business continuity planning is an important element of business continuity management and is regarded as a fundamental step towards reducing the negative impacts of business disruptions caused by internal and external hazardous events. Many businesses are not prepared for such events, and very few studies have tried to examine and model the factors that contribute to business continuity management planning by various companies. In this paper we propose and develop a feed‐forward neural network for modelling businesses continuity planning by businesses based on a dataset of 283 businesses operating in the Greater Toronto Area in Ontario, Canada. The fully connected neural network applied was trained on 65 % of the dataset records using different subsets of input variables. In order to preserve the generalization ability of the trained network, 15 % of the dataset records were used as a validation set for early stopping during the network's training process. Prediction capability of the trained networks was evaluated on 20 % and never‐seen records of the dataset. The classification ability of the networks was then analysed using receiver operating characteristic and detection error trade‐off curves, where the results obtained were promising. The equal error rate for the best models was 12 %, which reflects a very good accuracy of these models in predicting the existence of business continuity planning for a generic company. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Default and Recovery Risk Dependencies in a Simple Credit Risk Model

This paper provides evidence for the relationship between credit quality, recovery rate, and correlation. The paper finds that rating grade, rating shift, and macroeconomic factors provide a highly significant explanation for default risk and recovery risk of US bond issues. The empirical data suggest that default and recovery processes are highly correlated. Therefore, a joint approach is required for estimating time‐varying default probabilities and recovery rates that are conditional on default. This paper develops and applies such a model.     

云南电网应急恢复在线决策支持系统研究

针对云南电网黑启动方案只是在考虑有限的典型工况下离线制订的预案,在实际事故的演化过程中,特别是在极端外部环境下或在停电恢复过程中很难保证这些方案的时效性和可操作性的问题,对云南电网从初期黑启动方案制订过程的决策支持、后续恢复总体目标的确定、后续恢复步骤的优化和恢复过程等方面进行了电网应急恢复在线决策支持系统研究。结果表明：云南电网应急恢复在线决策支持系统的实施提高了初期黑启动方案制订过程的自动化水平,进一步深化了全过程方案的校核制订过程。通过后续恢复过程的在线支持,为应急恢复过程的决策科学化、调度精细化奠定了基础。该项目的研究实施可提高系统大停电后的恢复速度。     

High-growth recoveries, inventories and the Great Moderation

We present evidence about the disappearance of the high-growth recoveries from recessions with intense job creation typically observed until the eighties. This result matches the belief that recessions now have an L-shape as opposed to the old-time recessions that always had a V-shape. We also show how this change in business cycle dynamics can explain part of the Great Moderation. We postulate that these two phenomena may be due to changes in inventory management brought about by improvements in information and communications technologies.