沂蒙老区红色旅游经济可持续发展中的地方政府职能研究

红色旅游的发展为各地方经济的发展做出了重要贡献,政府在红色旅游经济持续发展中应发挥重要职能。在对政府在红色旅游经济持续发展中的职能进行规范分析的基础上,以山东临沂为例,进一步分析了政府职能履行的现实特征,并提出强化政府职能的简要策略。     

Preventing motor vehicle crash injuries and deaths: science vs. folklore lessons from history

Abstract

Not long after the beginnings of motorization in the early 1900s, deaths and injuries from motor vehicle crashes became a problem in a number of high-income-countries (HIC)s, especially the United States. With the biggest problem the US led early efforts to address this issue, and for six decades these efforts were based on folklore (ie a body of widely held but false or unsubstantiated beliefs). They were not evaluated, but clearly were unsuccessful as crash deaths and injuries continued to rise. It was not until the 1970s that a broader range of countermeasures began to be adopted and was scientifically evaluated, and as a result, crash deaths and injuries declined. This history has important lessons today for many low-and-middle-income countries that have growing numbers of motor vehicle crash deaths and injuries, many of which are pedestrians and motorcyclists. This is because there continue to be advocates for many of the failed approaches (especially educational) that dominated the early efforts in HICs.     

Destabilizing role of futures markets on North American hard red spring wheat spot prices

The objective of the paper is to determine if the futures prices of hard red spring wheat (HRSW) have stabilizing or destabilizing impact on spot HRSW price in North America. Several important results emerge from thorough empirical analysis. First, both Granger causality tests and directed acyclic graph algorithms (DAGs) point to two-way causality between futures and spot HRSW prices and thus endogeneity in both prices formation. To the contrary, both procedures suggest that ending stocks are exogenous to spot and futures HRSW prices. Both vector error correction model and impulse response functions point to a large and long-lasting impact of a shock to futures price on spot price level. Finally, variance decomposition analysis indicates that futures prices are responsible for the bulk of spot price volatility in both short and long run. Our result is consistent with those of theoretical models suggesting that when production (supply side) is the dominant disturbance, spot price is destabilized in both the short and the long run by futures prices. An important implication of this research is the need for alternative market mechanisms or alternative farm policy measures that would mitigate price risk and ensure sustainable farming of American HRSW farmers.     

钼酸钙红色荧光粉制备及性能研究

文章介绍采用溶胶-凝胶法合成可用于395nm及465nm激发的Ca1-2xBxEuxMoO4（B=Li^＋,Na^＋,K^＋）红色荧光粉。用粉末X射线衍射（XRD）和荧光光谱对其结构、发光性能进行了表征,并就不同电荷补偿对其发光性能的影响进行了分析。同时,详细研究了煅烧温度及Eu^3＋离子浓度对所得荧光粉的发光性能的影响。     

Neural network detection of management fraud using published financial data

This paper uses a Artificial Neural Network (AutoNet) to develop a model for detecting management fraud. The study offers an in-depth examination of important publicly available predictors of fraudulent financial statements. We find a model with a high probability of detecting fraudulent financial statements on one sample. The study reinforces the validity and efficiency of AutoNet as a research tool and provides additional empirical evidence regarding the merits of suggested red flags for fraudulent financial statements. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

陕甘宁红色旅游流的网络结构特征研究

开展陕甘宁红色旅游流网络结构特征研究,可以指导目的地旅游网络结构优化,推动红色旅游高质量发展。运用GIS技术、社会网络分析等方法,对陕甘宁红色旅游流整体网络特征、网络节点特征进行系统研究。结果表明,陕甘宁红色旅游流网络结构松散,密度低,呈现典型的“核心-边缘”特征;红色旅游流网络凝聚特征显著,地域集中性强,跨区域合作有待强化;延安革命纪念馆等关键节点功能地位突出,网络极化效应显著;核心节点对周边节点存在“虹吸效应”。研究进一步从构建多极化红色旅游流网络体系、推动红色旅游与相关业态协调发展和创新融合等方面就推动陕甘宁红色旅游流网络优化提出了相关对策建议。     

重庆红色旅游市场调查与建议

旅游产品的开发必须以市场为导向。只有把握了旅游市场的需求和变化,才能开发出更有特色的旅游产品。红色旅游作为一种把旅游和爱国主义教育结合起来的新型旅游产品,要想保持健康持续的发展,必须对其市场进行深入的调查研究。本文通过问卷调查和询问采访的方式对重庆红岩沿线的旅游市场进行了调查,在对144份问卷进行分析的基础上,通过研究旅游者行为特征和旅游市场消费特征以及游客对重庆红色旅游产品的反馈意见,剖析了重庆红色旅游市场的现状及存在的问题,并针对这些问题提出建议。笔者希望本项研究能丰富重庆红色旅游理论,有助于重庆红色旅游的可持续发展。     

浅析“大西柏坡”格局对“红色旅游”战略的促进作用

本文以"大西柏坡"格局的特点为线索,分三部分阐述了"大西柏坡"格局对"红色旅游"战略具有产业升级、形成规模化和更易拓展市场的作用,从而使"红色旅游"更具时代特色。     

基于混合多项式模型的韶山红色旅游需求人数预测

基于三次和四次多项式拟合模型。针对韶山红色旅游景区旅游需求人数预测问题,提出了混合多项式拟合预测模型．该模型可以解决信息呈递增趋势的问题,结果具有一定的可信度．将该模型与灰色预测模型GM（1,1）进行比较,结果表明,混合多项式拟合预测模型的平均相对误差明显要低于GM（1,1）模型,且计算代价更小．     

关于红色旅游资源的安全性研究

作为一种新型的旅游载体,红色旅游资源是红色旅游区别于其他特色旅游的重要标志之一,其开发潜力是巨大的。但是,目前这种新型旅游载体的安全状况却不容乐观。在界定红色旅游资源的概念、分析红色旅游资源的特点、探讨红色旅游资源面临不安全状况的原因的基础上,提出了加强红色旅游资源安全保护的对策。