大型事件对旅游上市公司经营业绩的影响研究——基于因子模糊综合评价法

基于因子模糊综合评价法，以上海世博会为例，选取2002－2011年长三角旅游上市公司面板数据为样本，研究大型事件对微观企业经营业绩的影响。结果表明，短期的大型事件对上市公司影响十分有限。这一结论对于今后旅游企业如何参与事件，把握事件所带来的机会并从中获得收益具有一定的借鉴意义．     

Click Here for a Data Scientist: Big Data,Predictive Analytics,and Theory Development in the Era of a Maker Movement Supply Chain

Predictive analytics is impacting many diverse areas, ranging from baseball and epidemiology to forecasting and customer relationship management. Manufacturers, retailers, software companies, and consultants are creatively discovering new applications of big data using predictive analytics in supply chain management and logistics. In practice, predictive analytics is generally atheoretical; however, we develop a 2 × 2 model to explain the role of predictive analytics in the theory development process. This 2 × 2 model shows that in our discipline we have traditionally taken one path to theory development, but that predictive analytics can be a salient component of a comprehensive theory development process. The model points to a number of research questions that need to be addressed by our research community. These questions are not just highly relevant to the academic community but also in urgent need of answers to help practitioners execute the right strategies with greater precision and efficiency. We also discuss how one disruptive trend, the maker movement, changes the nature of who the producers are in the supply chain, making big data even more valuable. As we engage in higher levels of dialogue we will be able to make meaningful progress addressing these vital research topics.     

Influences of Managerial Drivers on Export Sales Units’ Performance of Small and Medium-Size Enterprises

ABSTRACT

This report offers a contribution to the theories related to firms' export performance. Job satisfaction and behavioral and outcome performance of export managers have received attention in export literature. However, the relationships between export managers’ rewards system and the level of export managers’ morale with export managers’ job satisfaction, behavioral and outcome performance, and export sales units’ performance of small and medium-size enterprises have not thoroughly been examined, tested, or validated. A new model is developed based on export managerial psychology theory, which integrates two constructs, the export managers’ rewards and level of morale, as critical variables affecting export performance. The research findings suggest that four connected relationships in a PLS model are positive, significant, and substantial. Particularly, managers’ financial and nonfinancial rewards influence managers’ level of morale, which in turn affects managers’ behavioral performance, and managers' behavioral performance influences managers’ outcome performance, which, finally, affects firms’ export performance.     

Island residents' identities and their support for tourism: an integration of two theories

Most studies that examine tourism impacts and community attitudes have been carried out from the perspective of industrialized economies, making the findings less valid for small islands. This paper discusses some pertinent issues in relation to tourism development and community attitudes in small islands, and it develops and presents a conceptual framework based on social exchange theory and identity theory. The different facets of identity relevant to small-island communities that are likely to influence attitudes and support for tourism are incorporated in the framework and discussed. These include occupational identity, environmental identity and gender identity. Based on these, five propositions are developed. The study concludes that inclusion of identity variables in behavioral models could increase their predictive power in explaining attitudes to tourism and consequent support for the industry.     

The empirical development of a taxonomy for classifying recreation participants based on their attitudes toward the public and commercial sectors

Abstract

This study examined attitudes held toward the public and commercial sectors as variables relevant to classifying the recreation participants. The data were collected in a controlled experimental setting. A taxonomy was developed which can be used to categorize individuals on the basis of their attitudes toward the two sectors. Discriminant analysis was used to place individual subjects into one of nine groups in the taxonomy. The discriminant analysis identified statistically significant differences in the attitudes of individuals who were placed into the various groups. Further analysis revealed that the taxonomy may be simplified by collapsing the nine groups into three groups. The three groups include: (1) people who have more favorable attitudes toward the public sector than toward the commercial sector; (2) people who have more favorable attitudes toward the commercial sector than toward the public sector; and (3) people who have similar attitudes toward both sectors. Limitations of the study, implications for managers, and directions for future research are discussed.     

基于我国四大国有控股银行比较优势的信贷经营模式建构

我国四大国有控股商业银行当前的信贷模式主要借鉴美国商业银行的做法，以客户信用评级为切入点，实行单个分支机构对单个客户的经营。它对四大行来讲，实际上是扬短避长。四大行应当立足现代市场特点，充分利用机构网点和客户多的优势，重构信贷模式，才能实现信贷业务的又好又快发展。     

Intention to pay conventional-hotel prices at a green hotel – a modification of the theory of planned behavior

Numerous studies have employed the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to understand customers’ behaviors in various fields, but none has tested and extended the theory to explain customers’ decision formation to pay comparable regular-hotel prices for a green hotel. This is the first study designed to test and modify the TPB by including environmental concerns, perceived customer effectiveness and environmentally conscious behaviors, which are critical in explaining eco-friendly consumer behaviors. Salient belief items were identified using an elicitation method (focus group and open-ended survey). A survey obtained 389 respondents. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that measurement items for all study variables had an adequate level of reliability and validity. The findings from the structural equation modeling showed that the proposed model had a satisfactory fit to the data and better predicted hotel customers’ intention than the original TPB. The results also indicated that all antecedent variables of intention significantly contributed to forming the intention to pay conventional-hotel prices for a green hotel. Respondents were happy to have minor inconveniences, e.g. reusing towels and using recycled products, and were keen to learn about the positive environmental attributes of green hotels. Benefit awareness was shown to be important in customer decision-making.     

Changes in volatility of credit spread and market efficiency during rapid growth of credit-related securities

This paper investigates the changes in credit spread volatility during 1993–2001. We find that the credit spreads between junk-grade corporate bonds and Treasury bonds were significantly more volatile in the second half of this period when credit-related securities became popular. In contrast, investment-grade bonds exhibited no significant change in volatility. The junk bonds variance ratios changed from being less than one to greater than one. Using the GJR-Garch model, the conditional volatilities of junk bonds increased in the second half of the period and the mean reversion speeds slowed, suggesting a longer time for mean reversion to occur. Our analysis rules out treasury volatility, credit spread level, equity market return, T-bill rate, curvature of the Treasury curve, financial crisis, quantity of defaults and standard deviation of defaults as explanations for the increase in junk bond volatility. In contrast, volatility of equity returns provides a partial explanation of junk bond spread volatility in the later period.     

Principles of partnership schemes: Theory and practice

Summary

The paper assesses the dominant influences in partnership schemes for town centre redevelopment. The analysis of policy development in the public and private sectors is drawn together into an interorganizational framework, stressing joint approaches to action. Much development activity requires co‐operation by the public and private sectors, and the principal areas examined are the procedures adopted to implement partnerships, the linkages used and the actors involved at each stage. Original research was undertaken, notably case studies of Newcastle, Droitwich and Solihull. These investigations illustrate the diversity of working relationships, wherein individual responsibilities are directed towards collective action, and proper communication between development partners is essential. Although partnership operation is partly dependent on a reticulist who can co‐ordinate and initiate action, the most important aspects are the established procedures, which offer little opportunity for innovation, and the attitude of individual actors, which tends to reinforce current thinking rather than challenge it. Among those influences with an external origin, finance and politics have the greatest impact. Nevertheless, decision taking still operates in an ad hoc way, responding only as issues arise and thus contributing to the incremental development of policy and the maintenance of the status quo within the land market.     

基于公共选择理论的行政成本控制研究

本文借鉴公共选择理论的宪政思想、有限政府主张、成本效益和竞争机制等观点,试图从政治体制改革、中央和地方政府事权与财权的联动改革、政务公开和监督制度建设方面等制度层面提出解决我国行政成本过高的根本措施。