Financial crisis and persistence: evidence from sticky expectations consumption growth model

We estimate the degree of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth for the U.S. considering the effects of the Great Recession. The behavior of stickiness estimate in the crisis is somewhat as the U-shaped pattern. Our findings imply that during the crisis consumers’ attentiveness to aggregate information has slightly increased, thereby reducing the persistence of aggregate consumption growth. However, the reduction in persistence is transitory. Since 1980, the U.S. faced five recessions and in most of them the degree of stickiness declined, albeit temporarily.     

Does Increased Extraction of Natural Gas Reduce Carbon Emissions?

Without an international climate agreement, extraction of more natural gas could reduce emissions of CO₂ as more clean natural gas may drive out dirty coal and oil. Using a computable equilibrium model for the Western European electricity and natural gas markets, we examine whether increased extraction of natural gas in Norway reduces global emissions of CO₂. We find that both in the short run and in the long run total emissions are reduced if the additional quantity of natural gas is used in gas power production in Norway. If instead the additional quantity is exported directly, total emissions increase both in the short run and in the long run. However, if modest CO₂-taxes are imposed, increased extraction of natural gas will reduce CO₂ emissions also when the additional natural gas is exported directed.earlier version of this paper was presented at the 25th Annual IAEE International Conference in Aberdeen June 2002.     

面向现代化大学建筑的空调系统节能技术

建筑节能一直都是世界各国所关注的焦点问题之一。在整个建筑系统中，空调系统的能耗尤为突出，约占整个建筑能耗的35％以上，因此研究空调系统的节能方案具有重要的社会意义和巨大的经济效益。通过对浙江大学紫金港校区现有空调系统设计、运行的调查分析，针对大学校园建筑的特点，就空调系统中节能技术推广和运用等问题进行了讨论。     

基于主成分分析的多元线性回归用水量模型研究——以安徽省为例

用水量的准确预测对水资源规划具有重要意义。根据统计资料,选取了八项主要影响用水量变化的指标。按照主成分分析法原理,运用少数综合因子对影响用水量变化的原有八项指标进行了综合和简化,并研究其贡献率及综合效应;分析了用水量增长的特点,选用Logistic方程对综合因子进行回归分析;结合多元线性回归方法,建立了安徽省用水量模型;拟合结果表明,模型具有较高的精度;运用该模型,对安徽省2010年的用水量进行了预测;为水资源规划与管理提供参考依据。     

Capacity,sustainability, and the community benefits of municipal utility ownership in the United States

ABSTRACT

Most literature on utility sustainability focuses on internal operations; this misses the role that utilities could play within a community. This study measures the impact of municipal ownership of water and electric utilities on the sustainability policymaking of local governments. I find that municipalities with government-owned water utilities adopt more sustainability measures than those with investor-owned service. Similarly, municipally-owned electric utilities have higher levels of energy sustainability in the community, but not in government operations. The utilities provide fiscal and technical capacity to municipalities. Interdepartmental coordination also strongly predicts sustainability policymaking. This study brings potential community benefits to the discussion of private investment in public service delivery.     

收入差距、位置消费与社会稳定

适度、合理的收入差距,不仅是激励人们竞争,促进发展的重要务件,也是位置消费产生的基本条件;但过分悬殊的收入差距则不仅会影响人们的社会心理,不利于提高有效消费,而且可能产生畸形的位置消费行为,甚至会因此影响社会的稳定.在分析和研究目前收入分配问题时,应当从位置消费的新视角研究它们对社会稳定的影响.研究位置消费有利于我们从人们相互比较的满意度中观察改革的效果,权衡各项利弊得失,并及时地采取微调措施,尽可能地减少改革的摩擦和阻力.     

不确定性情况下的居民资产组合行为与中国金融结构变迁

转轨经济的一个显著特点是各项制度不断变化,制度变迁带来的不确定性对居民资产选择行为产生重要影响,进而影响和决定了金融结构的形成与变迁.     

The hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth in Asian countries - evidence using an asymmetric cointegration approach

ABSTRACT

This study examines the four commonly tested hypotheses in hydroelectricity consumption – economic growth literature for 12 Asian countries. Our results from a recently developed hidden cointegration technique uncover rich and significant relationships between negative and positive components of the variables under consideration. In particular, we find evidence to support the neutrality hypothesis in five countries (Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, and Thailand), the growth hypothesis in four countries (India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan), and both growth and conservation hypotheses in three countries (China, Malaysia, and New Zealand). These findings suggest that appropriate economic policies should be elaborated on the basis of the country’s specific hydroelectricity consumption–growth nexus. Finally, our new evidence suggests that the lack of stable relationship between hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth documented in previous studies for some of these countries could be due to the failure to properly account for the nonlinearity property in the data.     

Price-Cost Margins and Profit Rates in New Zealand Electricity Distribution Networks Since 1994: the Cost of Light Handed Regulation

From 1994 to 2003, New Zealands corporatized electricity lines networks operated with no industry regulator, but under the spotlight of mandatory information disclosure. As a result there exists a large body of detailed, audited and publicly available accounting data on the financial performance of these businesses. Using that data, this paper finds that price-cost margins have widened substantially since deregulation. We estimate the extent to which light-handed regulation has allowed profits to exceed the levels which would have been acceptable under the old rate-of-return regulatory framework, and find that the answer is about $200 million per year, on an ongoing basis.We thank colleagues at Victoria University, and two anonymous referees for this journal, for constructive comments on this paper. Any remaining errors are entirely our responsibility.JEL classification: D21; K23; L11; L43; L51     

实行消费启动化解经济风险

我国经济增长一直居于高位，但已有几种伴生现象，主要是商品过剩、资金过剩和失业率上升，正蕴育着一些风险或危机。这三者都是由生产过剩所引起。生产过剩意味着消费相对于生产已严重滞后。因此，要根治生产过剩，化解经济风险，关键是大力促进消费增长，并以消费启动经济运行全过程。坚持以消费带动投资增长，这是消费启动所固有的内涵和基本要求。