利率市场化进程中欠发达地区银行利率定价行为

国内商业银行的经营特征和收入结构已经反映出存贷款利率的重要性,欠发达地区商业银行的经营尤其依赖于存贷利差收入。在当前利率市场化进程中银行如何进行利率定价日益成为重要课题。对此,本文通过建立特定时期的欠发达地区商业银行利率定价的行为模型,对不同情景下的利率定价进行理论分析,进而明晰商业银行现行利率定价选择的根本缺陷,提出了最优利率定价策略及其实现路径。     

规划情景约束下山地丘陵区土地利用空间格局模拟*——以重庆市綦江区为例

[目的]以重庆市綦江区为研究对象,通过模拟预测2010—2020年规划调控影响下研究区的土地利用空间格局变化特征,以期为目标情景下土地利用规划的空间实施提供技术支持。[方法]文章通过构建Dyna-CLUE模型分别模拟研究区在自然增长和规划约束引导下的土地利用空间格局,并对照自然情景进而分析规划约束下土地利用空间格局的表现特征。[结果]比较AutoLogistic模型与传统Logistic模型回归结果发现,除建设用地外,其他地类的ROC值都有显著提升;对比两种情景模拟结果发现,到2020年,研究区内耕地、农村居民点、未利用地较自然情景显著减少,林地、园地显著增加,城镇建设用地增长规模较自然增长情景减少171.86hm~2;规划情景约束下,2010—2015年研究区地类转移以耕地转建设用地为主,2015—2020年以耕地转林地为主,耕地转建设用地次之,再次为农村居民点转耕地。[结论]Dyna-CLUE模型模拟中,运用添加自相关因子的AutoLogistic模型代替传统Logistic模型进行空间驱动力分析,能够显著提升模型模拟精度;规划约束下,退耕还林、农村居民点复垦和农业结构调整等工作的开展是耕地减少、林园地显著增加,建设用地规模得以控制的重要原因;退耕还林成果在规划约束情景中得到较好体现,表明规划目标对于引导土地利用空间格局定向变化有重要作用,但是丘陵山地的耕地减少态势也需得到足够重视,建议推进耕地产能建设从而协调生态保护与粮食安全间的用地需求。     

Chinese Economy under the New "Dual Circulation" Strategy: Challenges and Opportunities—A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2020–2021)

Entering year 2020, the Chinese economy was struck by the COVID-19 outbreak. The unprecedented pandemic, entangled with the already elevated complexities in the nation’s internal environment and external surroundings, aggravated its economic outlook. Internal factors including severe education mismatch in China’s labor force, its vanishing demographic dividend, the declined purchasing power of its middle-income groups, risen leverage ratio of households and enterprises, and soared local government debt reinforced to weaken China’s domestic demand. External factors, especially uncertainty in the China-US relation in the face of the re-shaping global value chain, dragged world economic recovery and thus China’s exports and imports. This summary report highlights some major challenges and opportunities faced by the nation under its new development strategy that stresses internal circulation of domestic economy aided by its interaction with the globe. Our analyses based on IAR-CMM model provide a unified framework for addressing China’s short-, medium-, and long-term issues in an internally coherent manner. Looking into year 2021, our benchmark projection reports an 8.4% annual real GDP growth rate. Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted to assess the impacts of potential downside risks and the corresponding policy options for ensuring implicit targets. Through the lens of these analyses, we conclude that a refocus on effective management of internal demand, while deepening structural reforms on supply side and advancing orderly opening up, can help smooth the internal and external circulations of the Chinese economy to achieve high-quality development.     

高中英语中情景教学实践分析

随着新课改的不断深入,对情景教学也提出了新的要求。在新课改中将从生活出发,培养学生兴趣作为新的教学目标,而教学情景的创设,正是培养学生学习兴趣,提高学生认知水平的一个重要途径。本文将对高中英语的情景教学进行简要的探讨。     

低碳经济下的浙江省能源需求情景预测

本文运用情景分析法和能源强度系数法相结合,预测了浙江2010-2020年三种情景下的未来各产业部门的能源需求总量和生活能源需求。同时针对节能减排任务,分析了经济结构对能源需求和能源强度的影响并提出了政策建议。     

A semiquantitative risk assessment methodology to prioritize recommendations

Process safety engineers promote loss prevention by providing recommendations when deficiencies are observed. Deficiencies are undesirable conditions that aggravate the likelihood and/or the severity of loss events. Any improvement needs resources, and since the resources are always limited, process safety engineers have to establish priorities for loss prevention recommendations. One appropriate way to prioritize the recommendations is to evaluate and compare the cost of risk reduction associated with the improvements. While qualitative risk analysis techniques may not be able to provide the necessary resolution to differentiate the improvements, quantitative techniques need much expertise, time, and funds. A feasible approach would be a semiquantitative methodology with the simplifications necessary to make it easy to use, but at the same time providing the needed resolution for prioritization. This article presents such a methodology to prioritize loss prevention recommendations. The methodology uses the concept of engineered systems, which are simply hardware (equipment or facility), procedures, or a combination put in place to serve specific functional intents. The basis of the methodology is founded in the premise that deficiencies are always associated with engineered systems and deficiencies increase their failure likelihoods. A few examples are provided with the details of the methodology and the incorporated simplifications. © 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Saf Prog, 2009     

MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND SCENARIO AGGREGATION

This paper provides a coherent method for scenario aggregation addressing model uncertainty. It is based on divergence minimization from a reference probability measure subject to scenario constraints. An example from regulatory practice motivates the definition of five fundamental criteria that serve as a basis for our method. Standard risk measures, such as value‐at‐risk and expected shortfall, are shown to be robust with respect to minimum divergence scenario aggregation. Various examples illustrate the tractability of our method.     

Civil Conflict,Democratization, and Growth: Violent Democratization as Critical Juncture

In this paper, we provide an empirical investigation of the interaction between violent conflicts, democratization, and growth in the “third wave” of democratization. The effect of democratization is weakened when taking into account the incidence of civil conflict. The results show that the growth effect of democratization is heterogeneous and depends on the democratization scenario. Peaceful transitions to democracy have a significant positive effect on growth that is even larger than reported previously in the literature, whereas violent transitions have no, or even negative, growth effects.     

基于情景分析的武夷新区主导产业发展研究

采用情景分析法构建武夷新区主导产业发展的短期和长期情景,并结合层次分析法对每种情景进行分析。研究结果表明:短期情景下,资金投入对武夷新区主导产业发展最为重要。长期情景下,环境则是制约该区产业发展最重要因素。无论是长期情景还是短期情景,武夷新区都应优先发展旅游、商贸服务和林产加工三大产业。     

物流英语跨文化适应案例模拟实训教学——以就业质量提升为重点的职业英语教学改革

国际物流行业的快速发展对从业人员的专业技能、英语交际能力、跨文化适应能力提出了迫切要求。文章分析了高职高专物流英语教学现状,阐明了跨文化意识培养对于提高物流人才英语交际能力和跨文化适应能力的重要意义,并提出以促进学生就业质量提升为目标的职业英语教学改革中应用案例模拟实训等教学方式方法培养提高学生的跨文化适应能力。