Does microfinance empower women? Evidence from self‐help groups in India

Microfinance programmes like the Self Help Bank Linkage Program in India have been increasingly promoted for their positive economic impact and the belief that they empower women. However, only a few studies rigorously examine the link between microfinance and women’s empowerment. This article contributes to this discussion by arguing that women’s empowerment takes place when women challenge the existing social norms and culture, to effectively improve their well‐being. It empirically validates this hypothesis by using quasi‐experimental household sample data collected for five states in India for 2000 and 2003. A general model is estimated by employing appropriate techniques to treat the ordinal variables in order to estimate the impact of the Self Help Group (SHG) on women’s empowerment for 2000 and 2003. The results strongly demonstrate that on average, there is a significant increase in the empowerment of women in the SHG members group. No such significant change is observed however, for the members of the control group. The elegance of the result lies in the fact that the group of SHG participants show clear evidence of a significant and higher empowerment, while allowing for the possibility that some members might have been more empowered than others.     

FDI对国际贸易的互补与替代效应:基于我国主要贸易伙伴的平行数据实证研究

将我国主要贸易伙伴按贸易方式、商品结构及地理距离分成三组,分别使用平行数据的截面SUR方法对各组与我国出口额、进口额和上年FDI、截至上年的累积FDI及当年GDP总和进行回归分析,发现短期内,第一组FDI对国际贸易起互补效应,第二组起替代效应,第三组效应不明显.在长期,三组数据的累积FDI对国际贸易均有显著促进效应.     

Does the Reserve Bank of Australia follow a forward-looking nonlinear monetary policy rule?

ABSTRACT

The conventional monetary policy rule describes a simple linear relationship between the domestic interest rate, inflation rate and output gap. An important extension to this rule is to incorporate the forward-looking behaviour of central banks, where it is assumed that they target an expected level of inflation instead of its current realised value. Using quarterly observations for the period 1993:1-2018:2, this paper investigates whether the conduct of monetary policy in Australia can be described by a forward-looking linear monetary policy rule, or by a nonlinear forward-looking monetary policy rule. In particular, the nonlinear forward-looking monetary policy rule is analysed in a regime-switching framework using a smooth logistic transition regression model. While the results show that the conventional forward-looking linear monetary policy rule describes the application of monetary policy in Australia reasonably well, the interest rate setting behaviour of the RBA is best described by a nonlinear forward-looking monetary policy rule.     

International Cooperation Behind the Veil of Uncertainty – The Case of Transboundary Acidification

The complexities of international environmental problems are only poorly understood. Hence, decision makers have to negotiate about abatement measures even though they do not know the 'true' model of the ecological system and have only a rough idea about the costs and benefits of their action. It will be analysed to what extent this kind of 'model uncertainty' – where players do not only have incomplete information about the payoff functions of the other players, but also about their own payoff function – affects the prospects of international cooperation. Using a simple game-theoretic model, it is shown how countries can use the veil of uncertainty to hide their distributional interests. The arguments are based on a deviation from the common prior assumption, which seems particularly questionable in a setting comprising various countries with different cultural and scientific backgrounds. Finally the model will prove useful to quantitatively and qualitatively illustrate the central role of model uncertainty in the negotiations of the first Sulphur Protocol signed to combat transboundary acidification.     

我国生态工业园该如何走出困境?

理论是对事物本质的把握,生态工业园区的理论模型是对生态工业园区本真性反映,是对生态工业园区合理运行机制的根本性揭示.其本质性内容是工业园区内的企业完成物质资料的相互交换和循环,即一个企业排放的废弃物能够成为另一个企业的生产原料.该理论模型既做到节约成本,提高企业经济效益,又使废弃物得到最大化利用和充分循环,还减少了对自然环境的污染.就目前而言,我国的生态工业园区创建仍然处于初级阶段,潜在的环境经济效益仍需较长时间的努力和一定资金的投入才能显现.最重要的体现是生态工业园区内的经济发展和生态环境保护并未得到平衡的发展,仍然存在以环境污染为代价的现象.     

风险因子调整的三阶段剩余收益模型的应用研究——基于中国资本市场1999～2010年截面数据分析

在总结梳理奥尔森模型及后来学者所提出的系列三阶段剩余收益模型基础上,选择有代表性的三阶段剩余收益模型（TSSV-θ）,结合作者提出的新的三阶段剩余收益模型,即风险因子调整的三阶段剩余收益模型（RIM-σ^2）,利用中国市场的数据进行实用性比较研究,同时选择单一上市公司数据就RIM-σ^2模型进行实际的运用分析。结果表明,RIM-σ^2模型在理论和实证上均具有较好的优越性和实用性,可以作为一种有效的企业价值评估方法。     

基于VAR模型实证分析云南省教育投入与经济增长的关系

采用向量自回归模型（VAR）,通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数对云南省教育投入与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,结果表明云南省教育投入与经济增长之间存在着互为因果的长期均衡关系,教育投入对经济增长的贡献率为24．3％。     

我国产业结构与经济增长间动态关系的实证分析——基于状态空间模型

运用时变参数模型,从三次产业对经济增长的拉动作用的角度,对三次产业与经济增长之间的动态关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:虽然近几年第三产业产值及其占比的增长速度均很快,但第三产业对经济增长的拉动作用不明显,落后于第二产业。最后,结合我国产业结构的特点,提出提高消费性服务业产值比重、加快第三产业内部结构的升级等建议,强调在努力提高第三产业产值比重的同时,更应注重提高第三产业的效率,由此才能实现经济的长期稳定增长。     

On the impacts of carbon tax and technological progress on China

Using a dynamic national computable general equilibrium model, we investigate the impact of carbon tax and energy efficiency improvement on the economy and environment of China. The Chinese social account matrix is presented based upon the latest input–output table (2012 IO table) and other data. The business as usual (BAU) scenario is designed according to several forecasts about China by 2030, followed by six policy scenarios, including different levels of carbon tax and technological progress as well as their combinations. The results show that carbon tax will frustrate the overall economic growth slightly. The CO₂ emission will be 13.81% lower in 2030 compared to BAU case if the carbon tax scheme is carried out at a rate of 200 RMB/ton of CO₂. Technological progress will stimulate the economic growth, enrich the household and government income, increase total investment and make most sectors prosperous with the exception of energy industries.