我国水电企业海外投资政治风险保险的收益模型

依据政治风险事件对水电企业海外投资项目收益影响的大小,构建政治风险保险的收益评估模型,该模型考虑到政治风险发生的随机性,加入随机元素,且从当前数据出发,一定程度上减轻了对未来政治事件估计的难度,有助于水电企业进行政治风险的投保决策。最后给出我国水电企业利用保险措施规避政治风险的相关对策。     

上海鲆鲽类产品消费者行为分析

在上海市场上,鲆鲽类近年来一直是一种重要的水产消费品。为了解上海地区鲆鲽类产品的消费情况,论文选择了上海的不同区域对消费者进行了问卷调研。整理的调研结果表明当前上海消费者已经对鲆鲽类有了一定的认知和消费行为,但其程度还较低。通过对调查结果的回归分析,文章讨论了显著影响其认知和消费的因素,并根据调研和统计结果对上海鲆鲽类产品的市场拓展提出建议。     

中国水产品对日本出口变动因素分析

论文利用日本财务省贸易统计提供的1990～2009年日本水产品贸易数据,在总结中国水产品对日本出口贸易特点的基础上,利用恒定市场模型,分析了中国对日本水产品出口贸易的变动情况。研究结果表明,需求效应和竞争力效应是影响中国水产品对日出口额变动的主要因素,近年来中国水产品对日本出口额急剧缩减主要是由于日本水产品进口市场需求萎缩和中国水产品竞争力下降造成的。在此基础上,根据实证分析结果,论文提出了扩大中国水产品对日本出口的建议。     

Using choice experiments to value catchment and estuary health in Tasmania with individual preference heterogeneity*

Choice experiments (CE) have become widespread as an approach to environmental valuation in both Australia and overseas. However, there are few valuation studies that have addressed natural resource management (NRM) changes in Tasmania. Furthermore, few studies have focussed on the estimation of estuary values. The CE study described in this paper aims to analyse community preferences for NRM options in the George catchment, Tasmania. Catchment health attributes were: the length of native riverside vegetation; the number of rare native animal and plant species in the George catchment; and area of healthy seagrass beds in the Georges Bay, which was used as a measure of estuary condition. Mixed logit models with interactions between socio‐economic variables and the choice attributes were estimated to account for systematic and random taste heterogeneity across respondents. Results reveal considerable variation in preferences towards the attributes and show that value estimates are significantly impacted by the way in which we account for preference heterogeneity. Preference heterogeneity thus needs to be considered when estimating community willingness‐to‐pay for environmental changes. This study further shows little responsiveness to the presented changes in estuary seagrass area.     

我国制造业进出口隐含污染分析:基于投入产出的方法

使用非竞争型投入产出表,核算了我国1976-2004年制造业28个行业6种污染物进出口隐含污染的BEET指标值和PTT指标值,并分析了我国进出口隐含污染的规模效应和结构效应。研究结果表明,我国进口和出口的规模效应为正且逐年增长,20世纪90年代以后出口规模效应逐渐大于进口规模效应;出口的结构效应基本小于零,进口的结构效应不明确,我国的产业结构调整和升级可能有利于减少我国进出口的净隐含污染量。此外,制造业出口隐含污染主要来源于纺织、塑料、机械设备和工业化学这四个行业。     

金融危机以来我国沿海港口货物吞吐量影响因素研究——兼论我国经济由外需拉动向内需驱动转型的一个证据

通过建立基于贸易引力模型的我国沿海港口货物吞吐量影响因素的VAR模型,分别考察了交通运输业固定投资、人民币汇率、世界经济状况和国内经济状况对我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的影响,并以金融危机以来的数据作为样本对该模型进行了实证检验。由脉冲响应和方差分解分析发现:世界经济发展状况对我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的影响最大,且世界经济的复苏将显著提高沿海港口货物吞吐量;交通运输业固定投资在经过一个滞后期后,也会对沿海港口货物吞吐量起到积极的作用;人民币汇率对我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的影响不可忽略,且汇率上升(即本币贬值)将提高沿海港口货物吞吐量;而国内经济发展状况则与我国沿海港口货物吞吐量之间并不存在显著的确定关系,这或表明我国经济的发展方式正由外需拉动向内需驱动转型。     

天津市七里海湿地土地利用结构优化配置

研究目的:研究兼顾生态效益和经济效益的天津市七里海湿地土地利用结构优化配置,为促进区域可持续发展提供依据。研究方法:运用多目标优化模型,将生态承载力、生态绿当量和经济效益作为生态效益和经济效益双优化表征,研究土地利用结构优化配置。研究结果:采用该方法获取的土地利用结构优化配置结果表明,研究区的土地利用结构得到优化,经济效益和生态效益得以兼顾,有利于当地实现持续健康发展。研究结论:利用多目标优化模型不但能够较好地协调利益相互竞争的多种目标,而且优化算法具有可靠的数学基础,可以成为区域土地利用结构优化的主要方法。     

Informal barriers and agricultural trade: does monetary integration matter?

EU enlargement and the recent sovereign‐debt crisis of Euro zone countries have revived the debate around the (European Monetary Union) EMU. In this article we ask how informal barriers to agricultural and food trade have changed since the introduction of the common European currency, and whether this evolution can be attributed to monetary integration. We focus on the foreign trade of the 11 EMU founder countries over a nine‐year period covering the creation of the EMU and find a diminishing marginal trade impact of both information and institutional barriers. We find a lower level of trade barriers, but cannot attribute this outcome to the introduction to the Euro.     

World market integration for export and food crops in developing countries: a case study for Mali and Nicaragua

Using a generalized error correction model, this article measures and compares market integration for export cash crops versus imported food crops for Mali and Nicaragua, and computes transmission elasticities between changes in the goods’ border and domestic prices. Both Mali and Nicaragua obtain the bulk of their export revenue from a particular agricultural commodity—cotton for Mali and coffee for Nicaragua—and both import the same key staple food of rice. To reap the economic gains from this trade specialization, the two countries’ agriculture must be well‐integrated into world markets. The two countries present an important policy contrast that affects their degree of world market integration and price transmission. In Mali, a parastatal enterprise controls its cotton industry, while Nicaragua has less state direction over agriculture. Reflecting this difference, the results show that for both its main export and import commodity, Nicaragua is more integrated into world markets and has higher price transmission than Mali. The results for Nicaragua also show much higher integration and price transmission for its main agricultural export (coffee) than its major import (rice).