“后危机时代”我国技术进口战略分析

我国经济增长面临结构转型和产业升级的挑战,需要多渠道获得先进和适用技术,其中技术进口是后发国家提高技术水平并实现赶超的重要方式。因此,在"后危机时代",我国必须加强技术进口,尽快制定进口战略,完善进口体系。本文从我国技术进口的现状出发,分析了存在的问题,并借鉴国外的经验,提出了我国技术进口的"十项对策"。     

我国非国企人力资源管理战略转变与可持续发展

本文认为,2004年春天在我国出现的民工荒问题,严重制约了我国以吸纳农业劳动力为主的非国有企业的可持续发展。产生民工荒的原因,主要是我国非国有企业长期掠夺性使用人力资源——对吸纳到本企业的人力资源实行传统大棒式管理所致。要解决民工荒问题,实现非国有企业可持续发展,我国非国有企业的人力资源管理战略必须转变为人本管理。本文提出了人本管理战略模型和这一模型实施的对策建议。     

The impact of accounting restatements on corporate innovation strategy

This study examines the effect of accounting restatements on corporate innovation strategy. Using a sample of restating firms and propensity-score-matched non-restating firms from 2000 to 2009, we find that, after restatements, restating firms experience a greater increase in exploratory innovation and a greater reduction in exploitative innovation compared to non-restating firms. These results suggest that restating firms are associated with an increased risk appetite as managers believe the upside potential may yield corporate improvement. The results also differ between fraudulent and non-fraudulent restatements, and among restatements of varying severity. The results of this study shed light on a previously unexplored consequence of accounting restatement and highlight its real impact on corporate business strategy.     

我国海洋经济发展的若干思考

海洋经济是人类开发和利用海洋资源、获取海洋产品的经济活动。海洋经济已经成为我国国民经济新的增长点。我国海洋经济发展迅猛，但同时也存在许多问题。文章认为，海洋经济实质上是海洋生态经济，是陆地生态经济向海洋的延伸；海岸带的合理开发和利用是实现海洋经济健康和持续发展的关键；应开展海洋资源与环境价值核算，调整和修正海洋经济综合评价指标，以反映海洋资源的耗竭和环境退化；应加强海洋经济省的建设；海洋经济的发展要注重观念、运行模式、新技术和机制等的创新，强调平衡发展战略与非平衡发展战略的有机结合。     

英国技术前瞻研究工作全景

英国的技术前瞻研究工作发源于1994年的技术预测计划,现已成为英国政府的一项常规工作。英国技术前瞻研究组挂靠在商业、创新和技能部下属的政府科学办公室,有优秀的研究队伍和稳定的经费支持,其开展的项目涉及新兴科学和技术面临的挑战和机遇以及围绕科技能发挥作用的重大社会问题,例如,全球变化、应对肥胖和洪涝灾害等。技术前瞻研究项目的研究报告和提出的有关建议,不仅对英国政府制定政策提供了重要参考,也对国际社会关于一些重大问题的判断和应对措施产生了较大影响。通过对英国技术前瞻研究工作的由来、已经完成和正在开展的项目、核心研究团队、项目的遴选标准和特点等进行系统介绍,并以案例的形式阐述了其前瞻研究项目对政府部门的影响,旨在为我国开展相关工作提供参考借鉴。     

Deposit insurance and bank regulation in a monetary economy: a general equilibrium exposition

Summary. It is commonly argued that poorly designed banking system safety nets are largely to blame for the frequency and severity of modern banking crises. For example, underpriced deposit insurance and/or low reserve requirements are often viewed as factors that encourage risk-taking by banks. In this paper, we study the effects of three policy variables: deposit insurance premia, reserve requirements and the way in which the costs of bank bailouts are financed. We show that when deposit insurance premia are low, the monetization of bank bailout costs may not be more inflationary than financing these costs out of general revenue. This is because, while monetizing the costs increases the inflation tax rate, higher levels of general taxation reduce savings, deposits, bank reserves, and the inflation tax base. Increasing the inflation tax rate obviously raises inflation, but so does an erosion of the inflation tax base. We also find that low deposit insurance premia or low reserve requirements may not be associated with a high rate of bank failure.Received: 2 January 2002, Revised: 1 March 2003JEL Classification Numbers: D5, E5, G1.B. D. Smith: Sadly, our co-author, colleague and dear friend, Bruce D. Smith, died on July 9, 2002.     

Estimating the performance effects of business groups in emerging markets

Business groups—confederations of legally independent firms—are ubiquitous in emerging economies, yet very little is known about their effects on the performance of affiliated firms. We conceive of business groups as responses to market failures and high transaction costs. In doing so, we develop hypotheses about the effects of group affiliation on firm profitability: affiliation could either boost or depress firm profitability, and members of a group are likely to earn rates of return similar to other members of the same group. Using a unique data set compiled largely from local sources, we test for these effects in 14 emerging markets: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, India, Indonesia, Israel, Mexico, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey. We find evidence that business groups indeed affect the broad patterns of economic performance in 12 of the markets we examine. Group affiliation appears to have as profound an effect on profitability as does industry membership, yet strategy scholars have a much clearer grasp of industries than of groups. Moreover, membership in a group raises the profitability of the average group member in several of the markets we examine. This runs contrary to the wisdom, conventional in advanced economies, that unrelated diversification depresses profitability. Overall, our findings suggest that the roots of sustained differences in profitability may vary across institutional contexts; conclusions drawn in one context may well not apply to another. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

跨国公司专利技术的信息化研发趋势

本文以1970年代至今不同时期发达国家专利技术的相关数据为分析基础,研究了发达国家,尤其是跨国公司为主体的技术研发趋势。进一步认识到信息产业技术创新的不同阶段的发展重心,并且不同发达国家有着不同优势,东亚国家、尤其是韩国在近几年来在信息技术上的赶超趋势明显。通过比较,指出跨国公司是技术创新基础上知识创造的重要力量,并且在组织、管理、研发等领域的广泛创新是信息战略的综合作用。中国应学习日本从专利模仿到自主申请专利,同时,注重基础研究的跟进与实践。     

供给侧改革中资源与能源行业去产能政策效果研究

中国经济历经复苏和快速增长阶段后,部分产业出现产能过剩现象,产业结构的不均衡变化导致了GDP增速放缓。2016年初中国政府提出供给侧结构性改革,旨在通过“三去一降一补”政策调整产业结构,刺激经济发展。本文构建了一个包含资源与能源产业的一般均衡模型,量化分析中国供给侧结构性改革的政策效果。研究表明,在去产能政策削减上游资源产业的产出后,政策冲击会传导至下游能源产业,导致化石能源相对于绿色能源产量下降14.04%,能源结构实现优化。随后的政策对比实验引入了新能源补贴、碳排放税征收及资源税收缴等财政手段,与去产能政策进行效果对比。实验结果显示,3种政策在不同程度上实现了能源结构调整,其中征收碳税的政策使化石能源占比降幅最大,但同时会使资本利率上升,加重企业融资成本;新能源补贴与资源税的政策也可以实现调控目标,但与去产能政策相比效果更弱。     

Limit-pricing as Bertrand equilibrium

Summary. We consider a Bertrand duopoly model with increasing returns to scale where one of the firms have a cost advantage and prices vary over a grid. We find that typically more than one equilibria exist. However, there are only two perfect equilibria. Moreover, as the size of the grid becomes small, both these equilibria converge to the limit-pricing outcome. Received: February 25, 2000; revised version: January 9, 2001