Fundamental disagreement

We document a novel set of facts about disagreement among professional forecasters: (1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the long run; (2) the term structure of disagreement is downward sloping for real output growth, relatively flat for inflation, and upward sloping for the federal funds rate; (3) disagreement is time varying at all horizons. We propose a generalized model of imperfect information that can jointly explain these facts. We further use the term structure of disagreement to show that the monetary policy rule perceived by professional forecasters features a high degree of interest-rate smoothing and time variation in the intercept.     

税收与经济增长关系的文献综述

国内外学者对税收如何影响经济增长的问题进行了较多研究,既包括理论研究也包括经验分析,但相关研究并未得出一致的结论。本文分别从国外研究与国内研究两个方面,对相关文献进行梳理和总结,分析税收与经济增长的相关性,进而获取有益的启发,以期对政府制定合理的税收政策提供一定的帮助。     

西部大开发对西部地区碳排放演变的影响

西部大开发后西部地区经济增长加快、人民生活水平提高,但产业结构、技术水平以及生态环境质量却并未表现出同等程度的改善或提升。采用30个样本省份1995—2011年的面板数据,运用双重差分法进行分析,结果发现：西部大开发在促进西部地区经济增长以及地区经济趋同的同时,也使得西部地区的碳排放（尤其是人均碳排放）与其他地区相比增长更快,与此同时,西部地区与碳排放相关的因素和条件（如产业结构、技术水平、市场化程度等）未得到显著改善。在既有的资源禀赋、发展阶段、产业结构以及经济发展方式下,西部大开发初期着力于固定资产投资和资源、能源开发,忽视教育事业、市场化改革、技术创新等软环境建设,导致西部地区在经济增长的同时碳排放相对增加。因此,在今后的西部大开发规划中,应当着力于转变经济发展方式,加强软环境建设,重视人力资本积累和技术创新,提升市场化水平,才能在发展地区经济的同时实现节能减排。     

我国城乡二元结构测度及其变革的制度创新探析

通过构建测度城乡二元结构的指标体系,应用比较劳动生产率、二元对比系数、二元反差指数以及反映城乡生活质量、社会公共品供给差异的指标,分析我国城乡二元结构的特征发现,制度性缺陷是我国城乡二元结构形成的主要原因。因此,进行制度创新成为城乡二元结构变革的关键和核心。同时,借鉴国际城乡二元结构变革的经验,从户籍制度、土地改革制度、社会保障制度、城乡规划等八个方面探讨了城乡二元结构变革的制度创新之路。     

政府规制与中国稀土产品出口增长的二元边际——对2001—2012年微观贸易数据的实证分析

采用HS?6位数级微观贸易数据,计算2001—2012年中国稀土产品出口增长的二元边际,并进一步分析相对出口规制程度、相对产量与出口增长二元边际之间的相互影响,结果表明：中国稀土产品出口规制政策对稀土产品出口增长的集约边际和扩展边际都有促进作用,其中对集约边际的影响更大;而相对产量对二元边际有负面影响。在中国经济新常态下,随着稀土产品出口规制政策的逐步弱化,应加强对稀土产业的生产规制,提高产品附加值,实现从规模速度型粗放增长向质量效率型集约增长的转变;并积极开拓新的出口市场,促进稀土产业的良性扩张。     

The interplay between home and host institutions on CBA ownership decision

Cross-border acquisitions (CBAs) are one of the key strategies for internationalization. However, most of what is known about CBA strategies relies on the effects of the host country's environment or the home country's conditions. In this article, we analyze the interplay between these two important factors. We show that companies from less institutionally developed countries are more influenced by poor institutional conditions found in host countries. We analyzed a dataset of 1,390 cross-border acquisitions performed by Latin American firms. The literature on the subject points out that less developed host environments lead to fewer shares of ownership acquired in CBAs. However, we confirmed that the quality of the home country's institutional environment positively moderates the effects of the host environment over ownership choice in the acquisition. This effect is due to companies from less developed environments being able to use their embedded capabilities to better navigate faulty institutional environments abroad.     

Learning equilibrium mean-variance strategy

We study a dynamic mean-variance portfolio optimization problem under the reinforcement learning framework, where an entropy regularizer is introduced to induce exploration. Due to the time–inconsistency involved in a mean-variance criterion, we aim to learn an equilibrium policy. Under an incomplete market setting, we obtain a semi-analytical, exploratory, equilibrium mean-variance policy that turns out to follow a Gaussian distribution. We then focus on a Gaussian mean return model and propose a reinforcement learning algorithm to find the equilibrium policy. Thanks to a thoroughly designed policy iteration procedure in our algorithm, we prove the convergence of our algorithm under mild conditions, despite that dynamic programming principle and the usual policy improvement theorem failing to hold for an equilibrium policy. Numerical experiments are given to demonstrate our algorithm. The design and implementation of our reinforcement learning algorithm apply to a general market setup.     

上市公司可持续增长率偏差的实证分析

按照可持续增长率进行发展,要求企业全面权衡各方面的契约关系,以稳定的契约结构获取企业的长期增长。但是在现实中由于各种原因,企业不可能完全按照可持续增长率进行增长,出现了可持续增长率偏差。本文通过对我国A股市场的上市公司在1997-2005年的可持续增长情况进行分析,研究了我国上市公司可持续增长率偏差的主要影响因素及其对未来经营业绩的影响。研究结果表明：影响可持续增长率偏差的主要因素包括资产运作效率变动、资本结构的调整、外部权益融资和销售净利率的变化,鼓励政策对企业的可持续增长率偏差并没有显著作用。另外本文还验证了较高的可持续增长率偏差对后期（5年）的业绩提高具有消极作用。     

论基金管理人的股东化转型

在传统的基金治理结构中,基金管理人大多采用经理型模式,基金管理人的道德风险的发生难以避免。对基民与基金管理人的委托—代理合同进行优化,重激励、轻约束,不能从根本上消除基金管理人的道德风险。要消除基金管理人的道德风险,必须实现基金管理人从经理型向股东型的彻底转变,将基民与基金管理人的关系由传统的基金运行模式中的股东与经理的关系改造为优先股东与普通股东的关系。基金管理人的股东化转型,相对于经理型基金管理人而言,至少有两大功能:对基金管理人的机会主义行为的矫治功能;对基金管理人能力的甄别功能。