Tales from tails: On the empirical distributions of forecasting errors and their implication to risk

When evaluating the performances of time series extrapolation methods, both researchers and practitioners typically focus on the average or median performance according to some specific error metric, such as the absolute error or the absolute percentage error. However, from a risk-assessment point of view, it is far more important to evaluate the distributions of such errors, and especially their tails. For instance, a lack of normality and symmetry in error distributions can have significant implications for decision making, such as in stock control. Moreover, frequently these distributions can only be constructed empirically, as they may be the result of a computationally-intensive non-parametric approach, such as an artificial neural network. This study proposes an approach for evaluating the empirical distributions of forecasting methods and uses it to assess eleven popular time series extrapolation approaches across two different datasets (M3 and ForeDeCk). The results highlight some very interesting tales from the tails.     

The economic effects of the 1920 eight-hour working day reform in Sweden

In 1920, the working day in Swedish manufacturing and services was cut from 10 to 8 hours without wages being cut correspondingly. Since workers demanded and got the same daily wage working 8 hours as they had with 10, real hourly wages increased dramatically; they were about 50% higher in 1921–1922 than they had been in 1919. This is the largest wage push in Swedish history, and this paper studies the consequences for profits, investments, capital intensity and unemployment. In traded manufacturing employers responded by increasing capital intensity and did not compensate for rising wages by raising prices, which led to a combination of jobless growth and low profit rates in the 1920s. Firms in non-traded manufacturing and services could raise prices and conserve profitability to a higher degree. In total, the effects of the reform were pro-labour. We discuss the implications for our understanding of interwar wages and employment, the literature on the decrease in inequality found in most industrial countries around 1920 and the rise of the ‘Swedish model’ in the 1920s and 1930s.     

Selling Versus Leasing of Durable Goods: The Impact on Marketing Channels

While many durable products are sold through intermediaries, there is limited understanding of how channel performance is influenced by transactions involving durable goods in a competitive market. In particular, extant research shows that intermediaries can significantly impact the leasing versus selling policy of a monopolistic manufacturer. This article seeks to fill that gap by examining the selling versus leasing choice of duopolistic manufacturers in the context of decentralized channels. Our analysis demonstrates that in addition to the unique equilibrium of selling, a prisoner's dilemma may arise where both manufacturers are better off if they were to lease their products.     

Where to donate: The geographical distribution of corporate philanthropy in China

An emerging body of literature has demonstrated that corporate philanthropy can be an important part of a company’s business strategy. However, we know relatively little about how companies allocate philanthropic resources to achieve their strategic targets. Using geographical distribution data on corporate philanthropy in China from 2009 to 2016, we provide robust evidence of companies’ revenue-driven regional favoritism. Specifically, companies donate more to regions where they obtain revenue than to other regions. Further evidence suggests that this revenue-driven regional favoritism may have both reputational and political motivations. Further analysis suggests that China’s targeted poverty alleviation policy has compromised revenue-driven regional favoritism while increasing the amount of money donated to poor regions. Overall, we enrich understanding of decision-making on corporate philanthropy. We also demonstrate that companies can use the geographical distribution of corporate philanthropy strategically to obtain consumer and government favor in regions where they operate. The results also provide evidence at the micro company level of the effect of China’s implementation of a targeted poverty alleviation policy.     

Financial Insecurity in a World of Plenty

Abstract

The U.S. economy is addicted to the simulative impacts of household borrowing. Household debt has grown dramatically since the 1990s and has served to mitigate the detrimental effects of stagnant household wages. The accumulation of this debt has also had the macroeconomic impact of stimulating the economy, pushing it closer towards full employment. However does full employment stimulated by household indebtedness actually represent economic progress? It is argued that even the poorest citizen in a modern industrialized society is better off than a king of feudal Europe, yet in the United States such material prosperity is often tied to social insecurity thanks to debt. The growth of this debt has been enabled by a financial system that has evolved dramatically over the past forty years. The U.S. financial system’s primary role is no longer to finance investment but is rather a tool that enables a separation of ownership from use. Debt has fueled corporate profits which have enriched the shareholding class while at the same time the system has reduced the financial security of the majority of workers. This article crystalizes these issues by analyzing the differentials in financial circumstances faced by workers and shareholders in several major U.S. firms.     

地方本科院校本科生导师制的探索

文章围绕地方本科院校本科生导师制问题,对实施的意义、设想与对策进行探析,为地方本科院校实施本科生导师制等提供有益的参考。     

Twenty-year review of South African fiscal policy: A tale of two sustainabilities

In 2014 democracy in South Africa was 20 years old. The democratic government in 1994 inherited both a high and increasing public debt/gross domestic product ratio and significant development backlogs. The government had to establish fiscal sustainability, yet also pursue development in a sustainable way. This article explores the government's performance in reconciling fiscal sustainability with sustainable development. The article shows that fiscal policy has been sustainable over the 20 years, with some risks appearing towards the end, and that the government pursued sustainable development through reallocating resources within the budget and by spending more in real terms. Three phases can be identified: 1994–2000, 2001–08 and 2009–13. However, poor service delivery and low levels of government investment during the 20 years threaten to undermine economic growth. Lower growth consequently threatens the sustainability of both fiscal policy and development, which, in turn, again undermines growth prospects. Hence, the article also identifies key future challenges.     

多地生产型船企物资配送存在的风险问题及其对策研究

通过对造船企业的生产特点以及物资配送现状的分析,从物资入库验收、生产计划调整、物资配送过程、资源配置要求及余料统筹利用等多方面反映了多地生产型船企物资配送目前存在的主要问题与风险,并提出相应的对策。     

基于因子分析法的物流供应商选择模型研究

为了解决在B2C交易实现过程中,由于物流配送供应商的选择不当,而出现配送周期长、费用高、退货退款率增加等问题,本文利用因子分析法探索选择物流配送供应商的合理方法,运用便捷有效的方法帮助电商选择适合自己的物流配送供应商。     

The performance of performance appraisal systems: understanding the linkage between appraisal structure and appraisal discrimination complaints

Abstract

Employee perceptions of the fairness of performance evaluations are critical to the success of any appraisal system. Research on performance management includes extensive studies on how bias emerges in the appraisal process. Despite this, there is no empirical evidence linking formal discrimination complaint filings – a key measure of bias - and performance appraisals. To close this gap, we conduct an empirical analysis using information on appraisal systems and discrimination complaints from the US federal government. Our findings suggest that agencies with better-designed appraisal systems will experience higher appraisal-related discrimination complaints, contrary to expectations. In particular, an expansion of training and voice opportunities are associated with an increase in appraisal discrimination complaints, while increased differentiation between performers is not consistently associated with complaints. For managers struggling with performance management, it may be better to spend time on improving performance-focused interpersonal communication rather than redesigning appraisal systems.