The role of banks in CESEE countries: exploring non-standard determinants of economic growth

This paper explores the finance–growth nexus in 14 countries from Central, Eastern and South-eastern Europe (CESEE) over the 1995–2015 period. It investigates whether including two ‘non-standard’ variables, i.e. a credit cycle dummy and foreign bank relevance, deepens our understanding of the role of a typical financial determinant of economic growth, i.e. bank credit. We find evidence of a negative impact of bank credit on economic growth and the significance of cyclical fluctuations of bank credit. In contrast, a higher market share of loans granted by foreign-owned banks in a cyclical upswing and stock market capitalisation are found to have a proactive effect on growth.     

信贷政策、银企关联与企业资本结构

本文从供给政策和银企关联两个层面出发,揭示信贷政策、银企关联对资本结构影响的理论机制,并提出3个理论假设,并以2003-2012年间360家上市公司为样本分别进行实证检验。结果表明,信贷供给和银企关联对资本结构具有显著的正向影响效应,并且两者之间存在显著的替代关系。鉴于此,必须加快发展和完善多层次资本市场,拓宽企业融资渠道,降低企业的融资成本;重视银企关联这一非正式制度安排对企业资本结构的作用,预防甚至减少违规现象的出现。     

Modinomics: Design,Implementation, Outcomes,and Prospects

This paper presents an analysis of the key elements of Modinomics, defined as “everyone's participation, everyone's progress.” It investigates the reasons why Modinomics was necessary, the key elements of Modinomics, and how this policy was implemented. It argues that India's economic policy has had continuity since the economic reform package of 1991, so Modinomics has involved a high component of better implementation. Nevertheless, there have been some major policy changes as well. The paper discusses the deep structural reforms of demonetization and a Goods and Services Tax as well the new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Act. The paper examines the record of economic growth under Modi as well as new welfare and employment programs to make economic growth more inclusive. Finally, the paper examines the medium and long‐term growth prospects for India.     

India's Economic Reforms: Achievements and Next Steps

This paper reviews the impact of India's reforms since 1991 on the performance of the Indian economy. It shows that the reforms definitely achieved a significant acceleration in growth and they also succeeded in reducing poverty. However, they have been less successful in generating good quality jobs. There was progress in providing better access to education, health services ,and clean drinking water and sanitation, but less than was hoped. The area where performance has been most disappointing is environmental sustainability. The paper concludes by identifying some of the critical policy challenges in the years ahead.     

REGIME DEPENDENT EFFECT OF OUTPUT GROWTH ON OUTPUT GROWTH UNCERTAINTY: EVIDENCE FROM OECD COUNTRIES

This paper studies the impact of output growth on output growth uncertainty by considering two important issues hitherto not properly and adequately addressed to in the existing empirical studies specifying this relationship. These are: (i) the possible existence of a threshold level of output growth, and the consequent identification of two regimes characterized by high and low output growth, and (ii) whether or not the coefficient capturing the causal link is different in these two output growth states. This paper proposes a regime switching model to study this asymmetric effect for 16 OECD countries. Based on monthly time‐series observations, our results strongly support that the impact varies significantly between the two output growth regimes with the coefficient in the high growth regime being negative for majority of the countries.     

CASH TRANSFERS,INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY,AND THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPMENT

We examine how cash transfers affect an individual's education investment, intergenerational mobility, and economic growth. We find that providing larger transfer amounts to higher ability children is desirable to foster growth if the economy has relatively low wage inequality.     

How should resource‐rich countries diversify? Estimating forward‐linkage effects of mining on productivity growth

Resource‐rich countries willing to diversify their economies are faced with dual policy options; to either develop resource‐based industries, or diversify their economies as a whole and invest into new activities that are not necessarily resource dependent. Not only does the economic theory fail to provide a consensual guidance on this issue but empirical evidence is also lacking. This paper empirically assesses which of these two patterns of diversification is associated with higher productivity growth outcomes for resource‐rich countries. Using panel data for 50 resource‐abundant countries over the period 1970–2010, I find that stronger downstream linkages to mining and extractives do not lead to productivity enhancements. Broadening and diversifying the production structure as a whole offers potential for productivity growth at higher levels of income.     

绿色工艺创新扩散波动对经济增长的冲击

本文构建了一个两部门DSGE模型,同时考虑了创新扩散的一般规律(“S型扩散”)与企业绿色技术创新扩散的独特作用(节能作用和减排作用)。基于人口老龄化的预测,模拟随着企业绿色技术创新扩散的波动,经济系统所做出的响应。结果表明：经济变量对于企业绿色技术创新扩散的波动呈现出不同的响应路径,其中资本存量的响应具有滞后性;资本报酬率为首的相关经济变量对于正向冲击的响应出现了“翘尾效应”。最后,本文给出了稳定、正向引导市场预期和在资本市场采取预调机制的政策建议。     

Causal relationship between apparel exports and macroeconomic factors

Apparel exports make a significant contribution to economic growth in major apparel exporting economies such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between apparel export growth and its determinants such as GDP growth, infrastructure, financial development, foreign direct investment (FDI) and labour productivity using panel data from 11 major apparel exporting countries for the period 1996 to 2013. The results confirm a long-run equilibrium association among the variables and reveal that GDP growth, infrastructure, financial development, FDI, and labour productivity have a significant positive influence on apparel export growth. Furthermore, the heterogeneous panel non-causality test results suggest that GDP growth, infrastructure and labour productivity contribute to apparel export growth in the short-run. These findings have several policy implications for the governments of the countries under study.     

Does too much government spending depress the economic development of transition economies? Evidences from dynamic panel threshold analysis

This paper investigates the relationship between government size and economic growth and determines the optimal level of government spending to maximize economic growth. The paper applies a dynamic panel data analysis based upon a threshold model to test the threshold effect of government spending in 26 transition economies over the period spanning 1993–2016. According to the analysis results, government expenditures have a threshold effect on economic growth, and there is a non-linear relationship depicted as an Armey curve in these transition economies. The findings indicate that a government size above the threshold government spending level adversely affects economic growth, while a government size below the threshold level has a positive effect. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant relationship between the two variables above and below that optimal level, even if we divide the sample into developed and developing countries. Our findings suggest that governments in transition economies should consider optimal government size at around the estimated threshold level to support sustainable economic growth.