含有中间变量的农村信用社可持续经营效率评价

本文借助含有中间变量的两阶段DEA评价方法对陕西省涉农地区不同信用社的可持续经营效率进行了评价。得出了大部分涉农地区基层信用社存在存款严重不足、发放贷款效率比吸收存款效率高、非利息支出过多、非利息收入不足等结论。     

Bank distress prediction: Empirical evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries

In this paper we apply a simple hazard model to develop an early warning system of bank distress in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Specifically, we identify a set of leading indicators of bank distress that are used subsequently to predict the probability of bank failure in these countries. The investigation covers a wide set of bank level variables and other variables including the influence of bank management, competition, diversification, ownership and regulation. Similar to the previous empirical evidence, we found that good management lowers the likelihood of distress. Moreover, competition and diversification were found to be bad for the health of banks. This result is consistent with some empirical evidence on diversification; however, it contradicts the bulk of literature on competition, which suggests a negative influence on the probability of distress. The ownership structure and the capital requirement index were uninformative. Similar to the previous literature, the institutional development index was statistically relevant predictor. The bank specific and other CAMEL type variables as well as the systematic shocks in the financial and macroeconomic environment were all found to be in line with the findings of related empirical studies. Finally, we find that by conditioning on the relevant covariates, a simple hazard model has performed fairly well in predicting bank distress in the GCC countries.     

Game-theoretic foundations of monetary equilibrium

According to theory, money supports trade in a world without enforcement and, in particular, in large societies, where gift-exchange is unsustainable. It is demonstrated that, in fact, monetary equilibrium breaks down in the absence of adequate enforcement institutions and it collapses as societies that lack external enforcement grow large. This unique result is derived by unveiling the existence of a tacit enforcement assumption in the literature that explains the advantages from monetary exchange, and by integrating monetary theory with the theory of repeated games and social norms.     

新丝绸之路经济带交通基础设施与城市化——基于高铁和高速公路的研究

交通运输是支撑城市活动最主要的基础设施之一,同时也是制约区域经济发展,影响城市化的重要因素。在新丝绸之路经济带沿线,无论是铁路设施还是公路设施近些年来都实现了新的飞跃,多地的交通运输水平得到了质的提升,本文在研究新丝绸之路经济带沿线交通基础设施空间分布的基础上,计算以高速公路和高速铁路为指标的交通基础设施和城市化的耦合协调度,以期为政府未来政策的制定提供启示和建议。     

京津冀城市可持续发展效率动态测评及比较研究——基于超效率CCR-DEA模型和Malmquist指数的度量

本文借助超效率 CCR-DEA 模型和 Malmquist 指数,对 2008~2015 年京津冀 13 个城市的可持续发展效率进行了动态测评和对应项分解。研究结果表明：（1）北京与津冀城市的可持续发展效率极为不平衡,北京大幅领先于津冀城市并有逐年扩大的趋势;津冀城市可持续发展效率的差距有逐年缩小的趋势;（2）京津冀城市作为一个整体其可持续发展效率在提高,但各城市可持续发展效率意义上的纯技术效率几乎没有提升;（3）京津冀各城市投入--产出系统虽处于可持续发展效率意义上的规模经济阶段,但不具有持续性。未来京津冀三地应充分利用建设雄安国家新区的战略性历史机遇,统一认识,密切合作,促进京津冀城市经济、社会和资源环境的协调可持续发展。     

The end of ESG

ESG is both extremely important and nothing special. It's extremely important because it's critical to long-term value, and so any academic or practitioner should take it seriously, not just those with “ESG” in their research interests or job title. Thus, ESG doesn't need a specialized term, as that implies it's niche—considering long-term factors isn't ESG investing; it's investing. It's nothing special since it's no better or worse than other intangible assets that create long-term financial and social returns, such as management quality, corporate culture, and innovative capability. Companies shouldn't be praised more for improving their ESG performance than these other intangibles; investor engagement on ESG factors shouldn't be put on a pedestal compared to engagement on other value drivers. We want great companies, not just companies that are great at ESG.     

Impact of the interactive and diagnostic uses of performance measurement systems on procedural fairness perception,cooperation and performance in supply alliances

We examine the effects of interactive and diagnostic uses of performance measurement systems (PMSs) on two behavioural factors (procedural fairness perception and cooperation) in inter-firm alliances. We further investigate whether the two behavioural factors mediate the relationship between PMS uses and alliance performance. We find that both interactive and diagnostic uses of PMS are significantly related to procedural fairness perception but only the interactive use is significantly related to cooperation. The relationships between the two uses of PMS and alliance performance are serially mediated by procedural fairness perception and cooperation. These findings contribute to management accounting studies in inter-firm alliances.     

Toward a better expert system for auditor going concern opinions using Bayesian network inflation factors

We develop an analytical model intended as the first stage in the development of expert systems to improve auditor knowledge in, and assist in the decision process of, Going Concern Opinions (“GCOs”). Our approach is consistent with a design science approach to developing information systems, resulting in an initial artifact, the mathematical model, which can, through iterative design science and behavioral research, inform a technology-based expert system. Based on Bayesian networks, our model provides insights about auditors’ revision, or inflation, of the probability to issue a GCO based on the interrelationship that forms with the incremental existence of one, two, or three publicly observable financial statement risk factors – net operating loss, negative cash flows from operations, and negative working capital. We calculate the revised probabilities using empirical data of GCOs from 2004 to 2015. Results reveal that the incremental relationship (one, two, or three factors present) effectively models expert auditors’ decisions to issue a GCO, and suggests the existence of these measurable inflation factors that represent situational and auditor-specific factors. We also find that Non-Big Four auditors inflate these factors differently than Big Four auditors to arrive at a decision to issue a GCO.