Volatility forecasting: long memory,regime switching and heteroscedasticity

In this article, we account for the first time for long memory, regime switching and the conditional time-varying volatility of volatility (heteroscedasticity) to model and forecast market volatility using the heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility (HAR-RV) and its extensions. We present several interesting and notable findings. First, existing models exhibit significant nonlinearity and clustering, which provide empirical evidence on the benefit of introducing regime switching and heteroscedasticity. Second, out-of-sample results indicate that combining regime switching and heteroscedasticity can substantially improve predictive power from a statistical viewpoint. More specifically, our proposed models generally exhibit higher forecasting accuracy. Third, these results are widely consistent across a variety of robustness tests such as different forecasting windows, forecasting models, realized measures, and stock markets. Consequently, this study sheds new light on forecasting future volatility.     

Modelling economic hysteresis losses caused by sunk adjustment costs

Transition from one economic equilibrium to another as a consequence of shocks is often associated with sunk adjustment costs. Firm-specific sunk market entry investments (or sunk market exit costs) in case of a reaction to price shocks are an example. These adjustment costs lead to a dynamic supply pattern similar to hysteresis. In analogy to “hysteresis losses” in ferromagnetism, the authors explicitly model dynamic adjustment losses in the course of market entry and exit cycles. They start from the micro level of a single firm and use explicit aggregation tools from hysteresis theory in mathematics and physics to calculate dynamic losses. The authors show that strong market fluctuations generate disproportionately large hysteresis losses for producers. This could give a reason for the implementation of stabilizing measures and policies to prevent strong (price) variations or, alternatively, to reduce the sunk entry and exit costs.     

REGIME DEPENDENT EFFECT OF OUTPUT GROWTH ON OUTPUT GROWTH UNCERTAINTY: EVIDENCE FROM OECD COUNTRIES

This paper studies the impact of output growth on output growth uncertainty by considering two important issues hitherto not properly and adequately addressed to in the existing empirical studies specifying this relationship. These are: (i) the possible existence of a threshold level of output growth, and the consequent identification of two regimes characterized by high and low output growth, and (ii) whether or not the coefficient capturing the causal link is different in these two output growth states. This paper proposes a regime switching model to study this asymmetric effect for 16 OECD countries. Based on monthly time‐series observations, our results strongly support that the impact varies significantly between the two output growth regimes with the coefficient in the high growth regime being negative for majority of the countries.     

Price Effects on Compound Commodities

We examine the effect of simultaneous price changes on the total demand for a group of goods, which we call a compound commodity. Specifically, we consider unit and proportional cost components (e.g., taxes, transportation costs) imposed on compound commodities. If the unit cost is positive, then the proportional cost raises the relative price of the more expensive good, and thus induces substitution towards the less expensive good within this group. Then, the substitution effect of the proportional cost for a compound commodity is non‐negative if and only if the compound commodity and the other goods are, on average, not strongly substitutable.     

基于公司治理的会计行为与伦理制衡研究

会计控制作为公司治理一项重要的制度安排,它是包含企业在内的所有组织和机构正常运转的制度基础,加强会计控制是公司治理的核心。而作为会计控制的主体,即接受委托并具体执行、实施会计控制的单位及个人,其产生的会计行为是企业实施会计控制的具体表现,且其采取的控制对策和实施效果均取决于产生的会计行为的导向。只有从利益导向与伦理约束双视角研究会计行为的动因及产生的效果,才能真正找到有效规范会计行为的科学方法。     

论企业物流成本管理

进入21世纪后,企业通过在生产领域降低成本获得竞争优势的空间已非常狭小,无疑,物流管理成为当前企业最重要的竞争领域。文中通过对企业物流成本现状进行分析,提出加强物流成本管理、降低流通费用、建立科学的物流成本核算体系的方法,从企业综合管理角度和物流方向各环节进行物流成本管理和控制,以获取市场竞争优势。     

基于资产专用性的企业融资决策研究

本文采用Williamson的思路,建立了资产专用性与交易成本、生产成本因素在内的综合交易成本分析模型。分析发现,相对于债务融资而言,股权融资有利于避免按市场规则强行清算带来的专用性资产价值损失,运用包络定理证明专用性程度高的资产具有削减生产成本的作用,专用性程度高的资产以股权融资为佳。     

新国际贸易与经济地理理论及其发展——2008年诺贝尔经济学奖得主的理论贡献

2008年诺贝尔经济学奖得主克鲁格曼将规模经济、产品差异与运输成本引入一般均衡分析模型,其开创性的研究使贸易理论和经济地理这两个曾经是相互独立的经济学分支融合到一起,成为新贸易理论发展的先导;作为创始人,他还将新经济地理学融入了主流经济学。此外,克鲁格曼还与几位合作者打通了新经济地理学与城市地区经济学传统研究之间的通道,并对国际货币经济学做出了重要贡献。     

中国真实利率的平稳性和区制性:基于马尔科夫区制转换模型

通过引入三种均值方差都可能不同的区制,并基于改进的马尔科夫区制转换模型对1989年2月至2010年4月中国真实利率演变的考察,结果表明不同阶段的真实利率的确存在不同的均值和方差;考虑到区制转换特征之后,真实利率大体平稳,有均值回复趋势。而以往的应用中,忽略了这种区制转换特征可能导致对真实利率预测值的系统性偏差。     

Cross-border mergers and strategic alliances

This paper develops a model with distribution costs to study firm cooperation in forming strategic alliances and mergers, under different types of foreign market entry modes, that is, export or foreign direct investment (FDI). Under both export and FDI, we find that cross-border alliances (mergers) dominate domestic alliances (mergers); and cross-border alliances and mergers are preferred to independence if and only if distribution cost is high. Under export, cross-border alliances are chosen in equilibrium if distribution cost is high. Under FDI and with high distribution cost, cross-border alliances (mergers) are chosen in equilibrium if plant setup cost is low (high).