Chronic Diseases, Labor Supply and Medical Expenditure at Older Age: Evidence from China

China has undergone a rapid epidemiological transition from infectious diseases to chronic diseases. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), this paper documents the profile of chronic diseases among older Chinese people, estimates the impact of the onset of chronic diseases on the labor supply, and examines the correlation between the prevalence of chronic diseases, a household’s medical expenditure and the role of health insurance in reducing medical costs. Empirical results show that the prevalence of chronic diseases is extremely high among older Chinese people and increases sharply with age. We find significant negative effects from the onset of chronic diseases on an individual’s livelihood at work. The estimation results by age and education suggest that the labor supply of the older and more highly educated people is more sensitive to the onset of chronic diseases. We also show that there can be a substantial indirect loss of individual and household income due to the onset of chronic diseases by limiting the labor supply. We find that the prevalence of chronic diseases is significantly associated with higher out-of-pocket medical expenditure. The reduced-form estimation results suggest that people with insurance have lower medical expenditure caused by minor chronic diseases, but this is only the case for women and urban residents. However, health insurance contributes little in reducing medical expenditure caused by major chronic diseases.     

从洪堡特的语言观看赛译《水浒传》中的中国英语

洪堡特的语言观关注语言与民族精神、思维方式的关系,认为一个民族的语言是民族精神的外在表现,能够体现出该民族独特的精神个性和思维认知方式。赛珍珠英译《水浒传》刻意模仿中文语言结构,创造了大量汉语色彩浓厚的英语词汇和句式,是一个用英语语言符号的外衣套在汉语语言结构和文化躯体上的译本。赛译本里的中国英语抓住了西方人潜意识里对中国文学作品的心理预期,给予读者充分的想象空间,丰富了目的语词汇,同时对消解西方话语霸权、传播中国语言和文化具有积极意义。     

技术进步与农民收入关系的实证研究——基于面板VAR模型

通过使用数据包络分析(DEA)方法测算1998—2010年的东部、中部和西部的技术进步率,运用面板VAR模型方法研究技术进步对农民收入的动态影响。研究发现,技术进步与农民收入有长期协整关系,但存在明显的区域差异,技术进步对中西部地区的农民收入有推动作用,而对东部地区的农民收入有负影响,据此,提出合理利用技术进步提高农民收入的相关政策和建议。     

产业链效应与产业链传导机制研究

产业作为国民经济重要组成部分,对经济增长起着决定性的作用。而国民经济中的各产业又是相互影响、相互作用的,构成了错综复杂的产业链条和网络,覆盖着整个国民经济,形成了独特的国民经济结构。从分析产业链的形态、构成和传导机制着手,分析国民经济各产业对经济增长的影响,从而研究保持经济稳定增长的产业政策和宏观经济政策。     

Financialisation and the slowdown of accumulation

Over the past decades, the financial investment of non-financialbusinesses has been rising, and the accumulation of capitalgoods has been declining. The first part of the paper offersa novel theory to explain this phenomenon. Financialisation,the shareholder revolution and the development of a market forcorporate control have shifted power to shareholders and thuschanged management priorities, leading to a reduction in thedesired growth rate. In the second part, the link between accumulationand financialisation is tested econometrically by means of atime series analysis of aggregate business investment for theUSA, the UK, France and Germany. Extensive tests of robustnessare performed. For the first three countries, evidence supportingthe negative effect of financialisation on accumulation is found.     

Exports,Supply Constraints and Growth: An Investigation using Regional Data

In this work we first model the role of demand‐ and supply‐side factors (labour market adjustment, productive efficiency) in explaining economic growth. Empirically testing the model, we evaluate why different growth regimes may appear in the 20 Italian administrative regions. This exercise uses a two‐stage econometric approach. Estimates for the elasticity of manufacturing output to exports are obtained from regional time series: a significant long‐run relationship indicates the existence of a demand‐constrained growth regime. We then ascertain whether the regional dispersion of supply‐side factors has an impact on the regional dispersion of growth regimes. The empirical evidence supports our expectations of strong regional differences. Southern regions are less likely to display demand‐constrained regimes. In explanation of these differences, second‐stage analysis reveals that a strong role is played by such efficiency‐enhancing factors as technological innovation, bank diffusion and ‘social capital’. No role is found for labour market rigidities.     

Confident expectations, rational expectations and the optimal conduct of monetary policy

Under what conditions central banks can afford to deviate from announced targets without losing their reputation is analyzed. For this, the public must have something like ‘confident expectations' vis-a-vis monetary policy and central banks have to behave accordingly. The paper shows that it can be rational for the public and welfare-increasing for the society to retain ‘confident expectations' instead of switching to rational expectations, when central banks have gained long-run reputation. At the end of the paper, alternative optimal money supply rules are compared in a dynamic optimization framework. © 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.     

经济转型期的产业断层危机

产业断层危机不同于一般经济周期,它产生于产业结构升级转换中的结构失衡,表现为中长期的结构错落和增长速度迟缓。根据引发的因素可以分为“康氏周期拐点型”、“泡沫经济引致型”、“货币危机引致型”和“产业升级转换型”等类型,中国目前正处于工业化中期阶段,产业结构正面临着向新兴技术和新兴产业转型阶段,到2005年前后,我国将面临产业结构大规模升级,届时由于现阶段的资源瓶颈、产业回补、出口压力、技术瓶颈、产业虚高度化和尤格拉周期因素,可能会发生较大的产业断层危机。     

地方政府环境支出行为的空间策略互动研究——传导机制与再检验

本文从理论和实证两个维度检验了地方政府环境支出行为的空间策略互动的传导机制。结果表明,环境支出存在明显的空间策略互动与时间滞后效应。其表现为相邻省级地区之间环保财政支出行为的互相模仿和路径依赖。外商直接投资和财政分权并不是导致地区间环境支出"逐底竞争"的直接原因。在构建多维度政绩考核体系来引导政府财政支出竞争的同时,建立地区间环境支出的协调机制和对外开放等途径,有利于实现均衡和绿色发展。     

长株潭城市群风景林建设的战略路径

长株潭城市群风景林建设具有良好的发展空间,不仅是提升城市群生态品位的必然选择,也是建设＂两型社会＂的重大举措。但从总体上看,长株潭城市群的资源消耗和环境承载力等制约因素仍然是长株潭城市群风景林建设的重大瓶颈。因此,努力破解风景林建设的制约瓶颈,科学定位长株潭城市群风景林建设的总体规划和生态配置。