战略性贸易政策:发达国家与发展中国家的博弈

作为新贸易理论的主要内容之一,战略性贸易政策实质上是发达国家为自己的保护主义所寻求的借口和托词。它虽然在产业适用性和国家适用性方面设置了诸多限制,但印度软件业的发展是该政策得以在发展中国家成功实施的良好佐证。我国应该在市场培育、制度建设以及贸易政策与产业政策协调配合等方面进行强化,以利用战略性贸易政策来培育我国具有国际竞争力的产业。     

The Great Leap Forward, Economic Reforms, and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Testing for Breaking Trend Functions in China''s GDP Data

This paper has two related objectives. The first is to evaluate empirically whether annual data for China's GDP and its sectoral components from 1952 to 1998 can be modeled more accurately as a stationary process around a breaking trend function as opposed to a unit-root process. The second is to identify the long-run growth path of the Chinese economy and shocks that are big enough to have altered the path. The conclusion that China's major output time series are trend stationary with structural breaks has significant implications for the government in policy decisions for long-run growth and short-run stabilization. It also has implications for modeling comovements between output variables and other macroeconomic variables in cointegration analysis of the Chinese economy.J. Comp. Econom., December 2000, 28(4), pp. 814–827. Department of Commerce, Massey University (Albany), Auckland, New Zealand.     

试论企业战略理论的演变与新发展

主要论述了自从本世纪６０年代初开始研究企业战略近４０年来,企业战略理论的演变与新发展。分析和介绍了以钱德勒、安德鲁斯、安索夫为代表的以环境、市场分析为基础的企业经典战略理论和以迈克尔·波特为主要代表的以产业结构、竞争优势分析为基础的现代企业战略理论。介绍了本世纪９０年代才出现的两个新的企业战略理论,即核心竞争力理论和竞争力国家竞争力理论,并对企业战略理论的发展趋势作了分析和预测。     

Determining the Best Sales Time Period for Dried Figs: A Game Theory Application

Variations in producer prices over time cause constant fluctuations in farm incomes. In this study, the author uses a game theory approach to determine the economically optimal time to sell dried figs for the agricultural firms that produce them. Based on the price producers received in the period between August 2003 and July 2010, dried fig prices were converted into 2003 real price levels. According to a linear programming model based on these assumptions, it was determined that the best time for producers to sell dried figs, with the rate of 26.63%, was November and December.     

流通理论研究的回顾与分析

本文以1981年到2004年期间发表在《中国社会科学》、《学术月刊》、《经济研究》、《经济学动态》、《经济理论与经济管理》、《财贸经济》、《商业经济与管理》、《商业研究》、《商业时代》(原《商业经济研究》)、《中国流通经济》、《财贸研究》等11类期刊上的流通文章为样本，对改革开放以来我国流通理论研究的发展，从研究内容、研究时间区间、期刊选择文章的偏好等三个维度进行了系统分析，形成了一系列研究结论，并提出了相应的建议。     

社会科学理论评价标准初探

社会现象由于受人类主观意志的影响，因而没有自然现象的普遍性和重复性，社会科学理论也没有像自然科学理论那样确定无疑的检验标准。对社会科学理论进行评价应坚持以下标准：（1）必须用原因解释现象；（2）论证和反驳必须坚持大概率原则；（3）必须坚持逻辑的自洽性、解释的一致性和结论的预见性原则；（4）必须对概念进行严格定义；（5）必须接受反驳和批判。     

Business Cycle Asymmetry in China： Evidence from Friedman＇s Plucking Model

Friedman＇s plucking model of business fluctuations suggests that output cannot exceed an upper limit, but it is occasionally ＂plucked＂ downward below trends as a result of economic recessions. This paper investigates China＇s business fluetuations using quarterly real GDP data for the period 1978 2009. Our results show some evidence supporting Friedman＇s plucking model. We find that a ceiling effect of real output exists, and that negative asymmetric shocks significantly affect the transitory component, which captures the plucking downward behavior during the recession. The results also suggest that the basic asymmetric unobserved component model is not appropriate for directly modeling China＇s real output because the business＂ cycle is inaccurately measured, but it works quite well when considering a structural break in the second quarter of 1992. The results reveal that although China＇s economy strengthened in the second quarter of 2009, it is essential for China＇s government to take further positive and effective measures to maintain sustainable development of the economy.     

How Do Social Norms Influence Parents’ Food Choices for Their Children? The Role of Social Comparison and Implicit Self-Theories

Despite the proliferation of healthier side items for children at fast food restaurants, many parents still do not make healthy choices for their children in this setting. The goal of this research is to identify the parents most likely to do so and develop an intervention to nudge these parents toward making healthier choices in retail outlets. Across four field studies conducted in a retail environment (i.e., locations of a fast food restaurant chain), the authors predict and find that parents with a high tendency to engage in social comparison and a malleable view of the self are most likely to conform to the norm in their parental social network. Given that the norm in the population studied is to order a less healthy side item (e.g., fries) versus a healthy side item (e.g., fruit), conforming results in significantly less healthy orders for the children of these individuals. The authors demonstrate that a social norm-based intervention designed to set a new healthy norm in this retail environment succeeded in increasing the overall proportion of parents that chose a healthy side item by over 29% by increasing the choice of healthy sides specifically for these individuals. The authors conclude with a discussion of implications for theory, retail managers, and policy makers.     

Effects of au naturel packaging colors on willingness to pay for healthy food

This study introduces and defines a novel color family—au naturel colors—and proposes that featuring these hues on product packaging enhances consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for healthy food products, but not for unhealthy food products. This effect occurs irrespective of the fit between the colors of the product and of the packaging, and of the color lightness or saturation. Perceptions of product authenticity mediate the relationship between au naturel colors packaging and consumer WTP for the product. The results of seven studies provide support for the proposed conceptual framework, contributing to the literature on consumer responses to colors and packaging features, and allowing to draw implications for the marketing of healthy food products.     

Volatility forecasting using related markets’ information for the Tokyo stock exchange

Due to lack of information, volatility cannot be estimated via a high-frequency approach when markets are non-trading. In this paper, we focus on volatility forecasting for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) using high-frequency data of related assets traded in international markets when TSE is closed. We use the heterogenous autoregressive model to identify an optimal approach of this additional information for the ten largest TSE-listed stocks, TOPIX and Nikkei 225. The usefulness of harnessing global and neighbour market information in forecasting the TSE market volatility is confirmed through in-depth empirical analysis. Our findings have important implications for investors and policy makers.