国际碳排放贸易与循环经济的协调

环境保护通过影响成本对国际碳贸易产生影响，这对于经济的可持续发展是有效的。我国循环经济的发展要求必须处理：好国际产业转移与国家能源结构调整的关系，并合理利用市场机制与政府作为的双效作用，为《京都议定书》第三轮承诺期谈判做好准备。     

Main Reasons Causing Chinese Agricultural Crisis in 1959-1961： Quantitative Test on Yifu Lin＇s Hypothesis

The traditional explanation was found to be inconsistent with the empirical evidence that mainly caused the agricultural crisis in 1959-1961, so Yifu Lin tried to explain this catastrophe through using Game Theory based on ＂one-shot game＂. This paper tested the hypothesis through quantitative test. The results showed that system factors mainly resulted in low productivity, and the natural disaster should not be ignored.     

城市政府规模效率的DEA评价——兼论政府的适度规模

评价政府是否达到规模效率,即政府规模是否适度,不应仅看政府投入的数量指标,还需考察政府投入的质量指标和产出水平.我们使用DEA的软件Deap2.1,输入单纯考虑政府数量规模和加入政府质量规模的两组投入,及政府的公共服务产出数据,来对全国88座典型城市的政府进行规模效率评价,结果发现,在加入政府的质量规模后,各城市政府在总体效率、地区间效率和按人口规模分的城市政府规模效率均大于单纯考虑政府数量规模的效率.从地区看,东南、环渤海和东北地区的城市政府效率较高;从人口看,以500万以上和200～500万人口的城市政府效率最高;从技术效率和规模效率看,城市政府的规模效率一般要好于技术效率,说明政府投入的各项资源配置不甚得当,还需进一步优化整合内部资源,而并不必然要通过精简机构或精简人员来提高效率.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

An integrated scenario analysis for the metal coating sector in Europe

Although new paint products and technologies have been developed, the sector of paint application still contributes substantially to total volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. Recent environmental legislation, especially the EU Solvent Emission Directive 1999/13/EC and its transposition into national law, coming into force in 2007, will have an important influence on the sector structure and the associated supply chain, especially for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This paper summarises a comprehensive scenario analysis to explore possible future trajectories for the sector. The main focus is on paint application activities, considering in particular the consequences of new environmentally friendly products and technologies which can be used by SMEs. Four different scenarios representing possible future states of the sector are evaluated, taking into account environmental, technical and socio-economic aspects along the associated supply chain and life cycle. The scenarios allow the formulation of recommendations and guidelines for policy makers and industries. This example confirms that interdisciplinary scenario analysis is a suitable approach to investigate possible future development of an industrial sector.     

Economic Value of the Carbon Sink Services of Tropical Secondary Forests and Its Management Implications

This paper explores the economic feasibility of secondary forest regeneration and conservation as an alternative in the campaign addressing the problem of global warming. Detailed measurements of tropical secondary forests over time, in different ecological zones of Costa Rica, are used to evaluate carbon storage models. The paper addresses key issues in the international discussion about cross- and within-country compensation for carbon storage services and illustrates a method to compute/predict their economic value over time under a variety of scenarios. The procedure is applicable to other developing countries where secondary forest growth is increasingly important.     

基于媒体关注度的碳风险对企业债务成本的影响分析

当前,企业的碳排放行为受到诸多利益相关者的关注,尤其是当大众媒体参与到监督队伍中,将给企业带来巨大的风险压力。本文以我国A股上市的重污染型行业的76家公司2012—2018年的数据为研究样本,实证检验了媒体关注下碳风险变化对企业债务融资成本的影响,结果表明:(1)碳风险的加大会提高企业的债务成本;(2)媒体的报道情况与企业的债务成本具有正向的变动关系,即负面报道因增加企业负担而使得债务成本上升,反之亦然;(3)进一步的检验二者的交互效应,发现媒体正面报道削弱了碳风险对债务成本的影响,而负面报道加剧了这一影响。     

高管股权激励、技术创新与企业全要素生产率——基于制造业企业的实证分析

以2007-2016年中国A股制造业上市公司为样本，采用OP方法测量企业全要素生产率，检验高管股权激励与企业全要素生产率之间的关系。研究发现，高管股权激励影响企业全要素生产率的传导路径上技术创新存在中介效应。在股权激励有效期越长、非国有的上市公司中，高管股权激励对企业全要素生产率的正向影响更明显。     

城市化对绿色全要素生产率影响的金融发展传导效应——以“一带一路”国家为例

城市化进程中活跃的金融部门，对绿色TFP的提升有关键作用。然而，城市作为现代经济的载体，如何通过金融发展的传导效应影响绿色TFP，现有研究往往语焉不详。本文理论分析了城市化对绿色TFP的直接作用及通过金融发展的间接传导效应，并借助"一带一路"的跨国面板数据进行实证研究。研究发现，城市化对绿色TFP有着先抑制后促进的直接影响。通过金融发展中的金融结构、金融效率、金融规模的间接传导效应，城市化进一步恶化了绿色TFP的增长。门槛效应表明，城市化在以资本市场衡量的较高金融结构下，对绿色TFP有正向的传导效应，而金融效率、金融规模则不存在这一促进机制。一方面，应努力提高城市化水平是破解当前城市化自身对绿色TFP负向影响的核心。另一方面，随着金融部门的日益重要，应把发展资本市场作为优化改善金融结构、建设绿色"一带一路"、实现经济发展和生态环境协同共进的重点。     

开发应用有机复合肥促进农业持续发展

土地是人类赖以生存和发展的最基本的自然资源。由于长期单施偏施无机化肥，造成土壤板结。肥力下降、污染环境、农产品品质降低等恶果。借鉴国际国内经验，作者提出了云南开发应用有机复合肥的建议，以促进农业的持续发展。