What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†

We investigate the effects of the 2008 New Zealand (NZ)–China free trade agreement (FTA) on exports from NZ to China, and real GDP per capita in NZ using the synthetic control method to estimate the counterfactuals. NZ exports to China were more than 200% higher in 2014 than what they would have had the FTA never been signed. NZ's food and live animals exports to China were more than 180% higher in 2014 than the counterfactual. Our counterfactuals indicate a small but negative effect of the FTA on NZ's real GDP per capita between 2009 and 2012.     

中国金融市场结构变迁的路径选择 --基于功能和效率框架的综合分析

经济转型国家金融市场发展的一般规律是：规模扩张先于结构优化,规模扩张到一定程度后,结构优化就成为市场能否持续稳定发展的关键。本文认为：中国金融市场结构变迁中存在显著非均衡性,主要表现在融资结构的“三主导”、市场种类的“七重七轻”、交易品种的“三小三少”以及交易主体的“四多四少”的格局。笔者基于一种功能与效率的分析框架对这种非均衡性结构进行了合理性评估。最后指出：现阶段中国金融市场发展必须加快金融创新,以结构优化为重点稳步推进金融市场的可持续发展。     

矿产资源型城市产业结构调整实证研究——以铜陵市为例

随着全球环境资源问题的日益严重,对于矿产资源型城市的研究已经成为一项世界性的课题。而属于其末期形态的矿产资源枯竭型城市更是城市类型中极具特色的一类,表现出独特的成长规律和发展特点。矿产资源枯竭型城市衰弱的根本原因是城市本身在长期依赖资源产业的情况下导致的产业结构不合理造成的,而解决区域产业结构不合理最直接的办法是培养接续主导产业,优化原有产业发展模式,推进区域经济走向合理、科学、快速的发展。     

河北省服务业发展现状与结构特征分析

河北省地处环京津、环渤海经济开发区,由于天然的地理优势和良好的经济基础,其正在成为21世纪华北地区产业链向纵深化拓展的重要载体。本文主要分析了河北省服务业的总体发展现状,以及行业结构和就业结构的特征,指出了河北省服务业在进行结构升级时应注意的一些问题,从而为提升河北省服务业竞争力、优化河北省产业结构提供借鉴。     

公司融资结构调整、部门异质性与中国信贷渠道的存在性

在理论总结与对中国经济环境分析的基础上,文章从两个新的视角对中国货币政策信贷渠道进行了重新探讨:一是特定货币政策环境下公司融资结构调整;二是产权异质性条件下的信贷配给。研究结果表明,中国的独立信贷渠道的确存在,然而,其作用机制并非是基于像上市公司这样的企业的微观融资结构调整效应,而是经济中国有与非国有并存的产权异质性所导致的信贷配给效应。对于上市公司,独立信贷渠道的作用是微弱的,这一结果对于公司行业及规模是稳健的。实证结果同时显示,与通常的预期不同,在获取银行信贷方面处于相对优势地位的国有投资受银行信贷变化影响更大。     

浅谈绍兴市调整产业结构和提高出口竞争力对策

绍兴市的纺织原料及纺织制品出口是其出口的传统行业,占绍兴市总出口比重从2003年以来一直处于60%～70%之间,是绍兴市出口的重中之重,保持了比较快的发展速度,但增长方式的落后,严重影响了其发展速度的进一步提高,增长方式亟待转变。高附加值、高科技含量行业的出口发展,促进了绍兴市的出口发展,也为今后更好地进行绍兴市出口能力提升提供了资源和保证。但是,由于绍兴市的经济结构和出口产品存在着诸多制约因素和问题,它还不能适应地区与国家经济发展的需要,所以,在对近些年来绍兴市经济结构和产品出口现状和问题的分析基础上,对绍兴市如何进行产业调整和提高出口产品竞争力提出了相应措施。     

The new goods margin in new markets

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries’ exports and imports growth during the 1995–2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics’ main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least-traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least-traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics’ share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns.