过度自信理论及其对金融市场的影响

本文介绍了投资者过度自信理论,说明了导致投资者过度自信的原因,分析投资者过度自信对金融市场交易量、市场效率、波动性和投资者预期效用的影响,指出了由于投资者的过度自信特征导致了市场的反应过度和反应不足。投资者的过度自信特征具有消极作用,也具有积极的作用。     

Dispersion in Analyst Forecasts and the Profitability of Earnings Momentum Strategies

This paper shows that the dispersion in analysts' consensus forecasts contains incremental information to predict future stock returns. Consistent with prior research, stock prices in the German market underreact to news about future earnings and drift in the direction suggested by analysts' forecasts revisions. Even higher abnormal returns can be achieved by applying such an earnings momentum strategy to stocks with a low dispersion in analyst forecasts. These results support one of the recent behavioural models in which investors underweight new evidence and conservatively update their beliefs in the right direction, but by too little in magnitude with respect to more objective information.     

The Effect of Multinationality on Security Analyst Underreaction

Previous research presented evidence of bias and positive serial correlation in forecast errors suggesting that analysts do not properly recognize the time–series properties of earnings when setting expectations of future earnings. A reason for the security analyst underreaction is the level of multinationality of the firm's activities. This study shows that analysts underreact to prior information more as the level of multinationality of the firm examined increases.     

Analyst underreaction and the post-forecast revision drift

The post-forecast revision drift (PFRD), the phenomenon of delayed stock price reactions to analyst forecast revisions, is a well-documented market anomaly. Prior research attributes PFRD to underreaction by investors to analyst forecast revisions. This study investigates the role of the analyst forecast revision process itself in the PFRD anomaly. Using a large sample of US firms, we confirm prior findings of a positive serial correlation (momentum) in individual analysts’ revisions to their earnings forecasts and, based on both indirect and direct tests, document a positive association between this momentum and PFRD. Further analyses reveal that both the forecast revision momentum and PFRD vary in similar ways with respect to the nature of the news driving the revisions and the information environment. Collectively, our findings show that underreaction by individual analysts in the forecast revision process is an important contributor to the PFRD phenomenon.     

Improving momentum strategies using residual returns and option-implied information

This paper provides an alternative method for enhancing momentum profits by combining residual returns and option-implied information. The results show that the main benefit of applying residual returns to construct momentum portfolios is generating stable returns. Additionally, the incorporation of implied volatility (IV) spread or IV skew into a residual momentum portfolio is found to significantly raise profits, particularly during bad times and high-sentiment periods. This is because IV spread and IV skew can dissociate winners/losers with a price underreaction from those with a price overreaction, which suggests that informed traders who perceive price underreactions/overreactions trade in option markets.     

Price reversal and drift following earnings announcements

Systematic patterns in returns following earnings announcements are difficult to interpret. This study provides additional insights into the observation of price reversal and drift by examining the effects of both the method used to identify winners and losers and also the length of the subsequent period analyzed. The results show that both drift and reversal can be observed for the same sample and event. This evidence indicates that security price behavior following earnings announcements, especially in the short-term, depends not only on the earnings information, as in the drift studies, but also on the price reaction to the earnings information.     

中国股市动量策略和反转策略的实证分析

文章分别以牛市和熊市对中国股市的动量策略和反转策略进行实证分析,结果发现不同市场态势下的表现是不同的,且相应的超额收益不能用风险时变CAPM和三因素资产定价模型来解释.     

股价波动与信息公告方式相关性研究

文章首先构造赢家(输家)组合,并根据信息公告方式定义信息类型属于私人信息还是公开信息,然后考察股价波动与信息发布方式的关系。通过实证研究,我们发现:股价波动和信息的公布方式存在紧密的联系,其中赢家组合整体表现出明显的收益反转现象,对私人信息存在过度反应;输家组合虽整体上未表现出明显的惯性现象或者反转现象,但其对私人信息表现出明显的过度反应。