Global models for a global pandemic: The impact of COVID-19 on small euro area economies

We analyse the COVID-19 pandemic shock on small open economies (SOEs) in the euro area in a unified modelling framework: the Euro Area and the Global Economy model. We find strong negative international spillovers affecting each of the modelled SOEs, stemming not only from the rest of the euro area, but also from the United States and the rest of the world. A lower bound on nominal interest rates in the euro area amplifies these spillovers, especially within the euro area. Furthermore, we find some positive spillovers from the fiscal measures implemented in the Euro area to combat the pandemic, including the new Next Generation EU instrument.     

Eco-efficiency changes of the electricity and gas sectors across 28 European countries: A value-based data envelopment analysis productivity approach

This paper assesses the relative eco-efficiency changes in the electricity and gas sector (E&G)' production and consumption chains in 28 European countries. We propose a novel robustness assessment for the productivity index, specifically adjusted to value-based data envelopment analysis. Overall, results indicate that total factor productivity gains have been mainly driven by the catch-up effect across all chains of the E&G sector. When a more demanding perspective concerning negative environmental externalities is adopted, we find that the number of European countries that achieved productivity gains across all chains decreases. Besides, results depict the existence of lower productivity gains for the direct production chain when compared with the direct and indirect supply chains of the E&G sector. Germany, Luxembourg, and Belgium were consistently viewed as innovators across all chains, according to the environmental perspective. Several Eastern Europe countries usually viewed as policy laggards that resisted adopting the ambitious European decarbonization targets, showed total factor productivity gains in the supply chain of the E&G sector under a more environmental demanding perspective. Czechia was the only country with productivity losses across all chains, due to increasing coal-fired electricity generation in the time horizon assessed. The current partial return to coal as a source of electricity, due to the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Europe, brings additional challenges to the enhancement of the eco-efficiency of the European E&G sector.     

Managerial firms’ profitability,unions, and environmental taxes

This article examines how determining an optimal environmental tax in a Cournot duopoly with unionized labour markets and managerial firms departing from the strict profit-maximization. It is shown that firm-specific monopoly unions that set wages (1) reduce both the environmental tax and environmental damage and (2) counterintuitively, increase firms’ profitability when the abatement technology is not too “efficient”, and the public evaluation of environmental quality is sufficiently high. Within this framework, the work also develops the endogenous game played by firms that must choose between sales delegation (SD) and profit-maximization. Results show that the SD contract always emerges as the unique, deadlock sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium, thereby solving the (prisoner's) dilemma emerging in the related existing literature assuming a competitive labour market.     

Measuring informational efficiency of the European carbon market — A quantitative evaluation of higher order dependence

This paper introduces a new method for measuring nonlinear predictability in financial price changes: the so-called intermittency coefficient, a parameter of the multifractal random walk model by Bacry et al. (2001). As the intermittency coefficient can quantify the degree of nonlinear deviation from a random walk, we employ its estimates from financial data as a proxy for the loss of financial market efficiency. In addition, we propose a new statistical test of the random walk hypothesis. In an empirical application using data from the largest currently existing market for tradable pollution permits, the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), we show that the degree of efficiency of this market remains largely unchanged over the period of observation 2008–2019. This suggests that the market has reached a mature state: informational efficiency in Phase III remains at a level comparable to Phase II. What is more, the EU ETS is found to be more efficient than the US stock market. This result, surprising as such, is largely attributable to the lower exposure to global economic shocks of the EU ETS.     

对地质调查项目支出绩效评价的思考

大力推进预算绩效管理对地质调查工作具有重要意义。当前地质调查项目支出绩效评价工作尚存在的以下问题:一是对绩效评价工作重视不够,绩效评价基础工作薄弱;二是绩效目标没有被细致分解,绩效指标设置过于简单;三是赋分存在很大的随意性,自评得分欠合理;四是突发事件给绩效目标的实现带来很大困难。下一步应从加强绩效评价顶层设计、完善绩效评价指标体系、完善绩效目标的动态调整机制、落实好绩效运行监控、严管项目支出绩效自评工作、强化绩效评价结果协同应用方面着手,建立科学规范、约束有力的地质调查项目绩效管理制度,以保障中央资金在地质事业投入领域的配置效率,促进地质调查事业健康发展。     

中国科协建设高水平科技创新智库的思考与建议

中国科协建设高水平科技创新智库是完善和发展中国特色社会主义制度，推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的内在要求。本文基于对“十四五”时期科技创新智库建设的新形势新要求的分析，借鉴国际知名智库管理经验，立足中国科协自身特点，提出推进高水平科技创新智库建设的建议。一是明确智库发展战略目标和定位，从组织架构、运行机制和学术支撑三个方面夯实智库建设基础。二是形成智库核心产品，畅通智库影响渠道，提升智库影响力。三是建议实施养“心”工程、强“翼”工程和链“家”工程，协同推进中国科协高水平科技创新智库建设。     

Credit unions and earnings management to mitigate political scrutiny over tax-exempt status

In this paper, we examine whether credit unions manage earnings to mitigate political scrutiny. In particular, we study whether credit unions increased loan loss provisions to decrease earnings around a 2005 congressional hearing on the efficacy of credit unions’ tax-exempt status. On average, we find evidence consistent with credit unions managing earnings downward via the loan loss provision in the quarters leading up to and surrounding the congressional hearing. In addition, we find that credit unions with higher earnings before the loan loss provision engaged in more downward earnings management than credit unions with lower earnings before provision. Our findings contribute to the literature examining the use of downward earnings management to avoid political scrutiny and the banking literature. Likewise, our results inform the continued debate as to whether credit unions should be tax-exempt.     

Do Governments Hide Resources from Unions? The Influence of Public Sector Unions on Reported Discretionary Fund Balance Ratios

We explore whether municipalities with public sector unions exploit aspects of governmental (or “fund”) accounting to obscure the availability of discretionary resources in fund balance accounts, relative to municipalities without public sector unions. We first investigate whether governments with unions report higher proportions of discretionary resources outside of the general fund, a primary measure of financial health, and instead within less prominent fund types. Second, we explore whether governments with unions report lower ratios within accessible general fund balance account categories – that is, report lower proportions of unreserved fund balance. Primary findings are consistent with both hypotheses. Although somewhat mixed, cross-sectional analyses reveal that effects are magnified when unions have more bargaining power, as proxied by the ability to strike or the absence of state right-to-work laws. Further analysis corroborates cross-sectional findings by examining difference-in-differences specifications surrounding the quasi-exogenous shock of Wisconsin's 2011 weakening of state public sector union laws and Ohio's time-varying union contract negotiations. Overall, the evidence suggests that governments with unions shelter resources to avoid the appearance of large discretionary amounts available.     

Technological sovereignty of the EU in advanced 5G mobile communications: An empirical approach

Two key issues within the debate around ‘technological sovereignty’ in the European Union are (i) access by countries and firms to enabling and emerging technologies and (ii) how strategic dependencies can be managed in order to preserve competitive positions in global value chains. In this paper, we present and discuss a multidimensional synthetic metric – the Technological Sovereignty Index (TSI) – to provide a global measure that captures the degree of exposure to specific technologies by a country (or group of countries) as well as the vulnerabilities that may be present. The paper validates the TSI by examining the EU's position (until 2021) within the global value chain of advanced 5G mobile communications, focusing on the hardware and component segments. Our findings reveal a weak degree of technological sovereignty due to (i) the shortage of specialized human capital in the EU and (ii) outsourcing trends in the relevant segments; however, untapped capabilities may exist that could partially offset strategic shortcomings.     

Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers and the Role of Local Autonomy: Evidence from European Regions

Using a panel of 268 European regions during 1990–2014, we document that the degree of local government's autonomy, measured with the “Local Autonomy Index,” has a significant positive effect on the fiscal spending multiplier. The estimated geographic cross-sectional fiscal spending multiplier is on average close to zero in countries with the lowest degree of local autonomy, and around unity in countries with the highest degree of local autonomy. Multipliers are state-dependent: larger when gross domestic product is below trend and when there is slack in the labor market; in those states, local autonomy has a particularly large positive effect on the multiplier. To interpret the empirical findings, we build a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model where both local and central government spending contribute to a public good that enhances private labor productivity. Local governments are more efficient in producing the public good and the multiplier is higher in countries where local government spending has a larger share in the production of the public good.