碳排放权交易制度的CO2与PM2.5协同减排效应研究

协同控制大气污染物与温室气体的排放是我国“十四五”时期面临的重要任务之一。以2006—2021年278个地级市面板数据为样本,采用多期双重差分对碳排放权交易制度的减碳和降霾协同减排效应进行探讨。研究发现,碳排放权交易制度既能显著抑制地区碳排放,又能显著降低试点地区的PM2.5指数,实现温室气体与大气污染物的协同减排效应。机制分析表明,该政策通过技术创新效应、技术改造效应及能源消费结构的改善实现地区减排协同,同时市场化水平的高低也会影响政策的减排效果。异质性分析发现,非资源型城市的协同减排效应强于资源型城市。     

基于传播视角的广告效果实证研究

广告效果的测定是广告活动必不可少的一个步骤，是对广告进行检验和评价的重要环节，然而实践中却为很多广告主和制作者所忽视。导致这种现象存在的原因除广告主和制作者在这方面的意识薄弱外，没有完整的广告效果测量方法也是原因之一。本文建立了基于传播视角的广告效果测量模型，并以央视Y广告为实证研究对象，论述了进行广告效果测量的变量和分析内容，并结合Y广告效果测量的实证结果提出了当前广告投放工作中应注意的问题。     

中国煤矿安全规制效果实证研究

本文在煤矿安全规制效果理论分析基础上,采用VAR模型实证检验中国煤矿安全规制效果。研究结果表明,中国煤矿安全规制在长期是有效的,体现在长期可以显著降低煤炭百万吨死亡率。但是,这种有效性在短期内会被煤矿工人的逆向行为所抵消,从而意味着规制机构在煤矿安全规制中面临短期效果和长期效果之间的权衡。实证分析还发现,煤炭产量增加在短期内会降低煤炭百万吨死亡率,而在长期则会提高煤炭百万吨死亡率。在上述实证结果基础上,本文提出了改善中国煤矿安全规制效果的政策建议。     

Ritual legitimation, de-coupling and the budgetary process: managing organizational hypocrisies in a multinational company

The study of participation in the budgetary cycle has formed a prominent part of the research literature concerned with the budgetary process. More recently there has emerged a body of literature concerned with exploring the political and symbolic nature of the budgetary process. The paper reports upon the outcomes of an empirical study of the introduction of `budgetary participation' in a division of a European subsidiary of a large North American car manufacturer. We detail the long process of consultation and negotiation within the subsidiary, and between it and the European Headquarters. The study provides a revealing instance of the roles of formal budget participation as a ritual of control and legitimation without the substantive involvement of middle managers and suggested to us the introduction of de-coupling and organizational hypocrisy alongside the introduction of budget participation. The study pays close attention to the contingent effects of the wider political context of the division and the relationships between the division, its organizational context and organizational environment, and how this context played upon the budgetary process in the division. The outcomes that we analyse at `Delta' reflect the de-coupling strategies and organizational hypocrisies commonly found in public sector organizations. In this wider setting the corporation persists with the ritual of `tight' budget negotiation and target setting and apparent underachievement in performance. Yet we conclude that the complex technological and political context to the formation and siting of Delta continued and may continue to support its existence.$g0     

全球失衡背景下中国外部财富分析

外部财富动态为理解全球失衡及其治理问题提供了新标准和新视角。与我国的经常账户持续盈余相对应,我国外部财富由负转正,但是外部财富的价值效应为负。运用外部财富的一个分析框架,对我国外部财富价值效应影响因素的分析表明,我国外部头寸与人民币名义汇率和实际利率存在显著的相互关系,与人民币实际有效汇率和美元实际利率则没有显著的相互关系。外部财富动态分析对于我国内外平衡的宏观经济政策选择具有丰富的政策含义。     

制药企业验证工作的管理

制药企业为确保验证实施效果,从建立验证管理制度、制订验证总计划、理解再验证的概念和注重验证的培训工作几方面入手,讨论如何更好地开展验证工作。     

Stress-testing US bank holding companies: A dynamic panel quantile regression approach

We propose an econometric framework for estimating capital shortfalls of bank holding companies (BHCs) under pre-specified macroeconomic scenarios. To capture the nonlinear dynamics of bank losses and revenues during periods of financial stress, we use a fixed effects quantile autoregressive (FE-QAR) model with exogenous macroeconomic covariates, an approach that delivers a superior out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to the standard linear framework. According to the out-of-sample forecasts, the realized net charge-offs during the 2007–09 crisis fall within the multi-step-ahead density forecasts implied by the FE-QAR model, but are frequently outside the density forecasts generated using the corresponding linear model. This difference reflects the fact that the linear specification substantially underestimates loan losses, especially for real estate loan portfolios. Employing the macroeconomic stress scenario used in CCAR 2012, we use the density forecasts generated by the FE-QAR model to simulate capital shortfalls for a panel of large BHCs. For almost all institutions in the sample, the FE-QAR model generates capital shortfalls that are considerably higher than those implied by its linear counterpart, which suggests that our approach has the potential to detect emerging vulnerabilities in the financial system.     

News framing effects on destination risk perception

News coverage of hazards is often commented to be of critical importance to individuals' perceived risk associated with tourist destinations. Despite the significance of this issue to the global tourism industry, the link between portrayals of hazards and audience reception is rarely studied in this context. This study adopted the framing theory to evaluate media effect on tourists' perceived risk of portrayals of terrorism and political instability incidents. This involved a survey-embedded experiment which manipulated potential elements of a news report concerning a hazard. The content of fictitious articles used in the experiment was created on the basis of extant risk perception theories. Results revealed that the use of risk amplifying frame and risk attenuating frame result in higher and lower ratings of risk respectively. Moreover, tourist psychographic characteristics were found to moderate the influence of news frames on perceived risk. Implications for tourism destination managers and marketers were discussed.     

Ethical behavior and trustworthiness in the stock market-growth nexus

While formal institutional quality has been used to explain the finance-growth nexus, the role of social capital has not been fully addressed. The proposition of “better finance, more growth” is important amidst concerns over the erosion of ethics and trust in finance in the aftermath of the 2007/2008 global financial crisis. Using threshold estimation technique, this study examines whether the growth effect of stock market development differs according to the distinct levels of ethical behavior and trustworthiness in a cross-section of 73 jurisdictions during the post-crisis period. The results demonstrate that the impact of stock market liquidity on gross domestic product (GDP) and total factor productivity (TFP) growth is positive and significant only where there is high level of ethical behavior in firms. Similar effect is discerned in the case of strong trustworthiness and confidence. However, there is mixed evidence when formal institutional quality in the form of regulation and supervision of securities exchanges is considered. In terms of policy implications, this study upholds the “better finance, more growth” proposition and contributes to the identification of thresholds above which ethical behavior and trustworthiness can influence positively the relations between stock market development and macroeconomic performance.