Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition

This paper analyses changes in economic regional interlinkages in Europe over time and investigates the factors that could explain the dynamics of these changes. Our four main findings are the following: (i) we detect a significant surge in regional synchronisation after the Great Recession; (ii) we identify the regions most interrelated with the rest of Europe, namely, Ile de France, Inner London and Lombardia; (iii) we find that sectoral composition explains regional synchronisation in Europe, mainly after the Great Recession and (iv) we document that sectoral composition has important implications for aggregate economic fluctuations, in particular, that similarities in services-related sectors across regions explain a nonlinear relationship between sectoral composition and regional business cycle synchronisation. We also propose a new method to measure time-varying synchronisation in small samples that combines regime-switching models and dynamic model averaging.     

Unbiased estimation of expected return using CAPM

Estimation of expected return is required for many financial decisions. For example, an estimate for cost of capital is required for capital budgeting and cost of equity estimates are needed for performance evaluation based on measures such as EVA. Estimates for expected return are often based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which states that expected excess return (expected return minus the risk-free rate) is equal to the asset's sensitivity to the world market portfolio (β) times the risk premium on the “world market portfolio” (the market risk premium). Since the world market portfolio, by definition, contains all assets in the world, it is not observable. As a result, an estimate for expected return is commonly obtained by taking an estimate for β based on some index (as a proxy for the world market portfolio) and an estimate for the market risk premium based on a potentially different index and multiplying them together. In this paper, it is shown that this results in a biased estimate for expected return. This is undesirable since biased estimates lead to misallocation of funds and biased performance measures. It is also shown in this paper that the straightforward procedure suggested by Fama and MacBeth [J. Financ. Econ. 1 (1974) 43] results in an unbiased estimate for expected return. Further from the analysis done, it follows that, for an unbiased estimate, it does not matter what proxy is used, as long as it is used correctly an unbiased estimate for expected return results.     

代数应力模式的分析解及其在充分发展旋转管流中的应用

本文通过求解雷诺应力在代数应力模式中与平均速度梯度之间的分析关系，研究了代数应力模式在涡旋流动特别是在充分发展旋转管流中存在的内在缺陷，这些缺陷的主要表现为：（１）在不考虑固壁对湍流影响的代数应力模式中，分析解给出Ｗ∝ｒ和ｖｗ＝０的错误结论；（２）若在代数应力模式中考虑固壁对湍流影响，在对称轴上会有ｖ＾２不等于ｗ＾２的非物理解。与诺应力输运模式相比，代数应力模式的缺陷归限结底在于该模式的基本假设不     

Application of a Three-dimensional Wind Driven Circulation Model to Assess the Locations of New Drinking Water Intakes in Lake Ontario

A 3D transport model is used to perform a comparative analysis of several potential drinking water intakes located along the northwest shore of Lake Ontario between Toronto and Oshawa. The model is specifically used to assess each intake under both long- and short-term transport of a potential pollutant release from the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station and potential and actual pollutant releases from local land sources respectively. A model based on a 500 m grid resolution is calibrated using data collected in the aftermath of the 1992 tritium spill at the Pickering Nuclear Generation Station and subsequently used to simulate long-term transport. A model based on a 100 m grid resolution is verified using drogue studies and used to simulate short-term transport events. Both models are used to assess pollutant levels at each of nine potential intake locations under different wind scenarios and pollutant releases. Field data for the study included water quality and flow measurements from local sewers and rivers, and estimates of pollutant levels from the local waste water treatment plants. This paper describes the model setup for both the long-term and short-term transport models, calibration using field data, long-term transport modeling, short-term transport modeling, and the comprehensive analysis approach used to evaluate the nine potential intake locations proposed. Results indicated that four intakes in particular outperformed other intake locations by maintaining bottom pollutant levels within governmental standards and warning times that exceeded 20 hours.     

A consumer education programme based on the Transtheoretical Model of Change

MONEY 2000? is a successful consumer education programme that was implemented by Cooperative Extension personnel in over two dozen states of the USA between 1996 and 2002. One of the unique features of this programme is that it was based on the Transtheoretical Model of Change (TTM), a framework that has been widely used to study health‐related behaviour changes such as smoking cessation. This paper first describes how the MONEY 2000? programme was developed around major constructs contained within the TTM. Findings are reported from a survey conducted with participants in the first two states that delivered the programme. The findings suggest that several change processes used by MONEY 2000? participants are associated with specific stages of change. In addition, there may be differences in behavioural changes between participants who increased their savings and those who reduced their debts.     

CROSS‐DOCKING AND ITS IMPLICATIONS IN LOCATION‐DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

Cross‐docking replaces traditional warehousing, enabling continuous flow of items without storage. Here we model location‐distribution networks, that include cross‐docking facilities, to obtain the latter's impact on the supply chain. We formulate optimization models to minimize total cost in three multi‐echelon networks, each model generalizing the preceding one. The first includes a single manufacturer, one product type, and multiple customers. Cross‐docks are to be located between origin and destinations. Besides solving optimally, a tool for quantitative analysis of direct‐shipment decisions is developed. The second model considers more than one product: We determine a cost‐effective sequence of items for indirect shipment (via cross‐docks). Finally, in a network with multiple origins, optimal solutions are obtained for 40 medium‐sized and larger examples.     

A Pricing and Hedging Comparison of Parametric and Nonparametric Approaches for American Index Options

This article investigates the extent to which options on theAustralian Stock Price Index can be explained by parametricand nonparametric option pricing techniques. In particular,comparisons are made of out-of-sample option pricing performanceand hedging performance. The dataset differs from many of thoseused previously in the empirical options pricing literaturein that it consists of American options. In addition, a broaderspectrum of techniques are considered: a spline-based nonparametrictechnique is considered in addition to the standard kernel techniques,while the performance of a Heston stochastic volatility modelis also considered. Although some evidence is found of superiorperformance by nonparametric techniques for in-sample pricing,the parametric methods exhibit a markedly better ability toexplain future prices and show superior hedging performance.     

采取网络型的政府市场供给模式应对房价问题

面对不断飙升的房价,从理论界到政策层面对其原因都有不同的解读,但从实践结果来看对房价的治理并不理想。本文在综合分析理论研究与国家调控政策的基础上,认为创新措施采取网络型的政府市场供给模式是解决房价过快上涨的有效途径。文章着重对这一模式进行了分析,并认为此举对缓解供需矛盾、解决市场的信息不对称、市场操控、改变预期、稳定房价等都有非常重要的作用。     

漳泽水库最优兴利调度研究

漳泽水库供水能力下降。优化调度方式是提高水库效益的最有效途径。通过采用随机动态规划方法与模拟模型交互运算得到现行控制水位的水库优化调度图。采用同样方法对不同控制水位的水库运行方式进行优化调度，选出的规划水库最优控制水位为汛限水位９０４ ．５ ｍ ，正常高水位９０５ ．５ ｍ 。优化的控制水位方案在保障水库防洪安全的前提下可供给城市生活和工业用水６ ３００ 万ｍ３ ，较现行控制水位下的供水量提高１ ２５５ 万ｍ３ 。但农业用水仍然不足，应采取一定措施给予解决，如对灌区工程进行改造，因地制宜采取不同节水措施和污水回用等。     

流溪河灌区工程渠首枢纽计算机监控系统开发与研建

流溪河渠首枢纽计算机监控系统在自行开发的现场总线工业局域网及专用智能终端、冗余管理和故障诊断专家系统的硬件环境下，在分别由监控系统（含设备层与上位机在线监控系统）和管理系统（由离线管理与服务器上的查询服务系统组成）软件的支持下，实现了对枢纽工程3座水闸47孔闸门的运行和管理，具有自动监测、自动量水、自动控制及系统重构等功能．现已以每天24h不间断地运行了2年，顺利地完成了枢纽工程的调洪、调水等日常调度与运行工作．