基于遗传算法的门限自回归模型在浅层地下水位预测中的应用

提出了建立门限自回归模型的一种简便通用的方法，用遗传算法可同时优化门限值和自回归系数．实例计算的结果说明了其可行性和有效性．该方法在各种工程时序预测中具有广泛的应用价值     

体制制度科技——我局发展历程的几个回顾和今后改革的断想

回顾了体制、制度的改革和科学技术的发展给十局带来的巨大变化，就十局当前改革任务从理顺产权关系、进一步完善内部治理结构、继续深化三项制度改革、实施科教兴局战略等四个方面提出了看法和意见。     

Independence and the State Auditor in Britain: A Constitutional Keystone or a Case of Reified Imagery?

The principles of state audit, in particular conceptions of independence, adhered to today in the major Westminster democracies originated in the British state audit reforms of the nineteenth century. State auditors prior to the nineteenth century were not expected to be independent of the executive. Instead, state audit was recognized as an executive function to be under the direct control of the executive. For a brief period in the mid-nineteenth century, parliament was able to take advantage of a succession of weak governments to redirect the loyalties of state audit from the executive to the legislature. Although parliament wanted to be served by a state auditor who would keep it informed of executive spending, it did not alter the dominance of the Treasury over state audit. The executive sought to sustain through a discourse of independence the perception that the controls exercised by the executive over the state auditor did not constitute either a threat to audit independence or result in capture of state audit by the executive. The discourse constructed the image of state audit as a function which was able to work unimpeded and independent of the executive despite a legislative framework which contained significant financial, procedural and staffing controls.     

大坝施工混凝土质量的评价体系

本文介绍了大坝施工混凝土质量的评价系统软件的设计思路和设计成果。它利用现代计算机技术和应用模糊数学理论评价混凝土重力坝和拱坝单块和整体的质量。在采用模糊综合评价工程质量中，对不同工艺环节，对坝体不同部位，鉴于其质量要求的差异应赋予不同的权重，在权重的取值上采用了专家调查排序，定量转化的方法是比较适宜的。在程序设计中，评价数学模型采用了BASIC程序，访膜块通过*TXT文件实现了与整个大坝混凝土质量微机管理系统的接口及数据传递。操作运行方便灵活。     

EFFECT OF STREAMLINE CURVATURE AND SOME OTHER CONDITIONS ON THE TURBULENT STRUCTURES IN THE OTHER REGION OF AN OBSTACLE

ＥＦＦＥＣＴＯＦＳＴＲＥＡＭＬＩＮＥＣＵＲＶＡＴＵＲＥＡＮＤＳＯＭＥＯＴＨＥＲＣＯＮＤＩＴＩＯＮＳＯＮＴＨＥＴＵＲＢＵＬＥＮＴＳＴＲＵＣＴＵＲＥＳＩＮＴＨＥＯＴＨＥＲＲＥＧＩＯＮＯＦＡＮＯＢＳＴＡＣＬＥＬｉｕＳｈｉ－ｈｅ（ＷｕｈａｎＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔ...     

NUMERICAL MODEL FOR DYNAMIC SIMULATION OF TRAFFIC FLOW

ＮＵＭＥＲＩＣＡＬＭＯＤＥＬＦＯＲＤＹＮＡＭＩＣＳＩＭＵＬＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＴＲＡＦＦＩＣＦＬＯＷＷｕＺｈｅｎｇ；ＺｅｎｇＬｉ－ｎｏｎｇ（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔＡｐｐｌｉｅｄＭｅｃｈａｎｉｃｓ，ＦｕｄａｎＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙ，Ｓｈａｇｈａｉ２００４３３，Ｐ...     

On optimality in intergenerational risk sharing

Summary. This paper defines and studies optimality in a dynamic stochastic economy with finitely lived agents, and investigates the optimality properties of an equilibrium with or without sequentially complete markets. Various Pareto optimality concepts are considered, including interim and ex ante optimality. We show that, at an equilibrium with a productive asset (land) and sequentially complete markets, the intervention of a government may be justified, but only to improve risk sharing between generations. If markets are incomplete, constrained interim optimality is investigated in two-period lived OLG economies. We extend the optimality properties of an equilibrium with land and give conditions under which introducing a pay-as-you-go system at an equilibrium would not lead to any Pareto improvement. Received: October 5, 1998; revised version: April 3, 2001     

Inferring repeated-game strategies from actions: evidence from trust game experiments

Summary. Combining a strategy model, an inference procedure and a new experimental design, we map sequences of observed actions in repeated games to unobserved strategies that reflect decision-makers’ plans. We demonstrate the method by studying two institutional settings with distinct theoretical predictions. We find that almost all strategies inferred are best responses to one of the inferred strategies of other players, and in one of the settings almost all of the inferred strategies, which include triggers to punish non-cooperators, are consistent with equilibrium strategies. By developing a method to infer unobserved repeated-game strategies from actions, we take a step toward making game theory a more applied tool, bridging a gap between theory and observed behavior.Received: 23 December 2002, Revised: 19 April 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, C80, C90.The authors are indebted for discussions with Ray Battalio, David Cooper, Robin Dubin, John Duffy, Ellen Garbarino, Susan Helper, Margaret Meyer, John Miller, Jim Rebitzer, Mari Rege, Al Roth, and John Van Huyck. The authors also benefited from discussants at economic department seminars at Case Western Reserve, McMaster and McGill University, University of Pittsburgh, SUNY-Stony Brook, and Texas A&M, and participants at the 2002 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society. We are grateful for the financial support provided by the Department of Economics at the University of Pittsburgh and Case Western Reserve University.     

Efficient Liability Rules: Complete Characterization

Received May, 18, 2000; revised version received March, 19, 2001     

山西引黄工程南干线7# 隧洞衬砌外水压力研究

本文采用综合修正系数取代规范建议的单一折减系数,用渗流场分析方法确定作用在引黄入晋南干线7#隧洞衬砌上的外水压力。由己知钻孔水位及泉水位反演出各地层的渗透张量及地表入渗强度求得初始渗流场。衬砌外水压力分析中考虑了衬砌混凝土的渗透性以及排水、灌浆等工程措施的影响。根据分析结果,提出了系统排水孔布置的建议,得出了在相应的排水减压措施下衬砌厚度由原设计35cm减至25cm,这一建议已被采用,取得了巨大经济效益。