从"10+3"看东亚区域经济合作的方式

东亚区域合作面临许多难题，贯穿“东盟方式”的“10 3”合作是东亚目前的主导形式，但这一合作的诸多缺憾使东亚区域合作很难沿这一方向深入下去。2002年初，小泉纯一郎在新加坡描述了一个称为“东亚共同体”的设想，实际是鼓吹以双边自由贸易协定网而非区域经济一体化的方式来实现东亚的区域合作。的确，双边自由贸易协定网的方式不但符合东盟强调自立的合作原则，也迎合了外部特别是美国在这一地区的利益，易为各方接受，却从根本上堵住了东亚通往更具机制化合作的道路。笔者认为东亚区域合作的必然选择是大国协调为基础的区域经济一体化，这虽然需要一个艰难的调整过程，但却是在全球化条件下保障东亚各国利益的惟一选择。     

基于组件的工作流通用平台建模研究

组件技术和工作流技术是两种不同的技术,该文阐述了如何通过各种工作流组件搭建工作流通用平台的方法,并给出了基于组件和工作流技术的系统模型,对开发工作流系统有一定实用价值。     

设置三角形阻流件的通道内流体流动特性研究

对常物性流体在通道内的周期性充分发展层流流动特性进行二维数值计算分析,所研究的通道是由两平行平板和交错布置于两平行平板上的多个三角形阻流件构成。给出了不同阻流件高度、顶角和间距以及不同Re 数下的流函数图和阻力特性曲线。     

资本流动、货币供给与价格总水平--一个理论分析框架

在国际收支的货币主义理论背景下，资本流动与货币供应量之间是一个循环反复的作用过程，二者的相互作用在内部经济与外部经济取得新的均衡时结束。借助IS—LM—BP模型可以将这种复杂的循环作用过程以及作用结果通过图形进行演绎。固定汇率制度下资本不完全流动时的IS—LM—BP模型与开放经济下的AS—AD模型分析表明，在固定汇率制度下，资本流出对国内货币供应量有紧缩效应，并使价格总水平下降；相反，资本流入对国内货币供应量有扩张效应．使价格总水平上升。     

急弯段闸孔出流的弯道水流特性研究

在河弯处修建水工建筑物时,研究弯道水流特性对水工建筑物布置的影响十分重要。采用RNCκ-ε紊流模型对急弯段闸孔出流的弯道水流进行了三维数值模拟。通过模拟计算,比较分析了急弯段不同闸位、不同流量条件下闸孔过流时的流速分布、紊流动能、压强分布和环流等相关水流特性与变化规律。分析研究结果表明,闸坝位于弯道上游时,弯道对闸坝过流的影响最小,但需对闸坝下流弯道凸岸岸坡附近区域采取一定的防护措施;闸坝布置在弯道中游时,过闸水流受弯道的影响最小,闸室水流的稳定性、闸门的工作安全以及闸墩的空蚀破坏都是实际工程中需要注意的重点。数值模拟验证与物理模型试验结果吻合较好,计算精度较高,能够满足相关计算研究要求。     

巢湖兆河分洪闸泄流特性试验研究

受周边地形条件及环境限制,巢湖兆河分洪闸与河道呈垂直布置,进流条件不利。针对分洪闸与河道垂直布置这一特征,分别对开敞式和涵洞式分洪闸进行了水工模型进口流态试验分析,结果表明涵洞式分洪闸进流流态优于开敞式分洪闸,能更好地保证各闸孔的均匀进流。针对涵洞式分洪闸方案,研究了分洪闸敞泄和控泄的泄流能力,指出敞泄状态下进口行近流速对流量计算影响明显,在水闸规划设计中,应计入行近流速影响。为改善消能效果及出口水流与下游的衔接,进行了多方案消能防冲改进试验,结果表明尾坎作为一种冲击式消能工布置在挖深式消力池末端,可使出口水流流速分布更加均匀并与下游水流衔接更为平顺,明显增强消能防冲效果。     

Environmental Influences on Fish Migration in a Hydropeaking River

Fish have evolved traits and life history characteristics that enable them to survive, exploit and depend on the flow regime of rivers, particularly the timing and predictability of flows for spawning and rearing their young. It is unclear to what degree pulsed flows from hydropower facilities and other environmental variables influence migratory behaviours. We used Dual Frequency Identification Sonar in the Michipicoten River, Canada, to address the relationship between fish migration and environmental factors with a focus on flow magnitude and fluctuation. In both 2007 and 2009, the peak of the Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) migration occurred on 8 September. Mean water temperature on this date was 18 °C and precipitously dropped afterwards. The photoperiod was roughly 12‐h long with sunrise at 700 h and sunset at 2000 h. Most fishes moved upstream during the hours of darkness between 2000 and 600 h. The lowest counts of fish occurred from noon to just before sunset, whereas highest counts commonly occurred from 1 to 2 h after sunset. Fish moved upstream during all magnitudes of flow; however, there was a slight preference for larger flows in 2007 but not in 2009. Changes in flow magnitude occurred both during the day and night, with flows typically increasing during the day to meet electrical demand and decreasing at night. Most fishes moved upstream during periods of little to no change in flow. High flows and changing flows may deter salmon from moving up the Michipicoten River but not likely in a significant manner to cause energetic stress or harm. Other adverse effects of pulsed flows, however, must still be considered for spawning, hatching and rearing success. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Why do fish strand? An analysis of ten years of flow reduction monitoring data from the Columbia and Kootenay rivers,Canada

Stranding of fish due to flow reductions has been documented in the near shore of the Columbia and Kootenay Rivers, Canada, and can result in sub‐lethal or lethal effects on fish. Ten years (1999–2009) of monitoring data have been collected at sites below two hydro‐electric dams (Hugh‐L‐Keenleyside and Brilliant Dam) following flow reductions. A generalized linear mixed effects model analysed the probability of a stranding event in relation to environmental and operational variables including the rate of change in the water levels, the duration of shoreline inundation prior to a reduction (wetted history), the river stage, the magnitude of the reduction, distance downstream from the dam, time of day, day of year (season) and whether a site had been physically altered to mitigate stranding. The results demonstrated statistically significant effects on stranding risk from minimum river stage, day of the year and whether a site had been physically re‐contoured. The combination of investigated factors giving the highest probability of stranding was a large magnitude reduction completed in the afternoon in midsummer, at low water levels when the near shore had been inundated for a long period. This research is significant in its approach to assessing years of ecosystem scale monitoring data and using the modelling results to determine ways for these findings to be applied in regulated river management to minimize fish stranding. It also highlighted data gaps that require addressing and provides ecosystem scale results to compare with stranding studies carried out in mesocosms. © 2014 The Authors. River Research and Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Combined Effects of Reservoir Operations and Climate Warming on the Flow Regime of Hydropower Bypass Reaches of California's Sierra Nevada

Alterations to flow regimes from regulation and climatic change both affect the biophysical functioning of rivers over long time periods and large spatial areas. Historically, however, the effects of these flow alteration drivers have been studied separately. In this study, results from unregulated and regulated river management models were assessed to understand how flow regime alterations from river regulation differ under future climate conditions in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. Four representative flow alteration metrics—mean annual flow, low flow duration, centroid timing and mean weekly rate of decrease—were calculated and statistically characterized under historical and future unregulated and regulated conditions over a 20‐year period at each of the eight regulated river locations below dams across the Sierra Nevada. Future climatic conditions were represented by assuming an increase in air temperature of 6 °C above historical (1981–2000) air temperatures, with no change in other meteorological conditions. Results indicate that climate warming will measurably alter some aspects of the flow regime. By comparison, however, river regulation with business‐as‐usual operations will alter flow regimes much more than climate warming. Existing reservoirs can possibly be used to dampen the anticipated effects of climate warming through improved operations, though additional research is needed to identify the full suite of such possibilities. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

溃口近区二维数值模拟与溃坝洪水演进耦合

基于黏土心墙砂石坝的溃决过程,以及溃坝洪水传播和运动的特性,建立黑河金盆水库大坝溃口近区二维数值模型和下游地区溃坝洪水演进耦合数学模型。使用DAMBRK法计算逐渐溃坝,并应用其结果进行后续模拟。采用Abbott-Ionescu六点隐式有限差分格式求解一维模型,采用单元中心的有限体积法求解二维模型方程。采用侧向连接方式,将黑河两岸计算水位点与二维网格单元相连,实现一、二维模型的耦合。采用所建立的二维模型对溃口近区进行计算与模拟,得到计算区域某一时刻的水深及流速分布。应用所建耦合模型对黑河金盆水库万年一遇入库洪水漫顶致溃坝洪水进行数值模拟,得到一维河道内各断面的水位和流量变化过程,以及二维计算区域内不同时刻的水深分布图、流速矢量图和淹没范围变化过程。溃口的形成过程不仅包括漫顶水流的直接作用,同时包括溃口形成过程中两侧漩涡状水流的反冲刷作用。耦合模型可以同时兼顾河道内的水流变化以及河道外计算区域内的洪水演进过程,从而减少由于计算结果偏大或偏小所带来的防洪资源浪费和防洪措施不利等不良影响。