The Marshallian macroeconomic model: A progress report

In this progress report, we first indicate the origins and early development of the Marshallian macroeconomic model (MMM) and briefly review some of our past empirical forecasting experiments with the model. Then we present recently developed one-sector, two-sector and n-sector models of an economy that can be employed to explain past experience, predict future outcomes and analyze policy problems. The results of simulation experiments with various versions of the model are provided to illustrate some of its dynamic properties that include “chaotic” features. Last, we present comments on planned future work with the model.     

试论二元经济形态下的会计模式

本文分析了在知识经济兴起的环境下我国现行会计模式存在的缺陷,并根据知识经济发展的历程以及我国目前工业经济与知识经济并存的现状,提出了一种能适应两种经济形态的兼容性会计模式,最后指出了目前实施该模式尚存在的制约因素。     

砂基中泥浆盾构法隧道施工开挖面稳定性试验研究

 通过模型试验，对泥浆盾构施工中泥浆维持开挖面稳定的力学机理，开挖面前缘土体的应力变化规律，泥浆压力作用机理及泥皮形态进行了研究，提出了中粗砂地基中临界泥浆压力 公式。     

MODELING OF WATER DYNAMICS AND POLLUTANT SPREADING IN THE LUOMAHU RESERVOIR FOR WATER TRANSFER FORM SOUTH TO NORTH OF CHINA

1 .　ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＷａｔｅｒＴｒａｎｓｆｅｒＦｒｏｍＳｏｕｔｈＴｏＮｏｒｔｈＰｒｏｊｅｃｔ(ＷＴＦＳＴＮＰ)ｉｓａｇｒｅａｔｄｅｃｉｓｉｏｎｔｏｓｏｌｖｅｔｈｅｐｒｏｂｌｅｍｏｆｗａｔｅｒｓｈｏｒｔａｇｅｉｎｔｈｅｎｏｒｔｈａｎｄｃｅｎｔｒａｌｐａｒｔｓｏｆＣｈｉ ｎａ .Ｔｈｉｓｐｒｏｊｅｃｔ ,ｉｎｃｌｕｄｉｎｇＥａｓｔ ,Ｃｅｎｔｒａｌ ａｎｄＷｅｓｔ Ｌｉｎｅ ,ｗｉｌｌｄｒａｗｗａｔｅｒｆｒｏｍｔｈｅＹａｎｇｔｚｅＲｉｖｅｒｔｏｔｈｅｎｏｒｔｈａｎｄｃｅｎｔｅｒｏｆＣｈｉｎａｓｏｔｈａ…     

多输入单输出逆高斯分布流域汇流模型

本文将逆高斯分布应用于由水库和区间组成的复杂的流域汇流系统，并建立了多输入单输出逆高斯单位线模型。讨论了模型参数的估计方法，并对沾益流域的雨洪资料进行了实例分析。     

多变量自回归模型在三江平原井灌水稻需水量预测中的应用

应用多变量自回归模型ARV(n), 利用三江平原腹地-富锦市1985～1999年气象资料, 按水稻生育期划分6个生育阶段, 建立了井灌水稻生育期内需水量预测模型. 经模型拟合与预测, 效果良好, 可以为该地区开展节水灌溉、灌溉用水管理、合理开发利用地下水资源, 缓解地下水危机提供参考依据.     

三峡库区滑坡地质力学模型试验技术研究

在三峡库区滑坡地质力学模型试验研究基础上，阐述了滑坡地质力学模型试验的研究现状。指出时间相似比在滑坡模型相似判据研究中须慎重选择；提出以重晶石粉系相似材料能较好模拟软土体滑坡；并介绍了模型相似材料测试中低参数指标测试存在的问题以及模型试验测试技术中的最新进展。     

Modelling the effects of dam removal on migratory walleye (Sander vitreus) early life‐history stages

Many dams in the USA have outlived their intended purpose and an increasing number are being considered for removal. Yet, quantitative studies of the potential physical, biological and ecological responses are needed to assess dam removal decisions. In this paper, the responses of migratory walleye (Sander vitreus) to increased spawning habitat availability as a result of dam removal was studied by comparing scenarios with and without a high‐head dam in the Sandusky River (Ohio), a major tributary to Lake Erie. A conceptual, ecological model was proposed to define the relationship between hydrodynamics and walleye spawning, egg hatching, larval drift and survival. A mathematical, ecological model of the early life‐history stages was then developed and coupled with time series of depth and velocity predictions over the spawning grounds from a 1‐D hydrodynamic model. Model simulations were run for 1984–1993 for both the with‐ and without‐dam scenarios to assess the potential benefit of dam removal. The simulation results demonstrated that velocity, depth and water temperature are major factors influencing adult walleye spawning success. Without the dam, 10 times the amount of spawning habitat would be available for walleye to spawn. This increase in spawning habitat area resulted in up to five times the total egg deposition and seven times the larval output to the nursing grounds, based on the assumption that 5% of the walleye population of Lake Erie migrated up the Sandusky River to spawn. We concluded that the spawning habitat in the current condition (with the dam) is limiting and additional spawning habitat upstream could significantly increase the number of larval walleye drifting to Lake Erie. The model sensitivity analysis showed that the number of walleye migrating up the river in spring is the dominant factor for larval recruitment to the lake. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

安徽省水资源宏观经济优化模型研究

以水资源可持续发展为出发点,探讨了一种可以同时兼顾经济发展、水资源利用和社会效益的多目标水资源宏观经济模型的建立方法,通过引入带权2-模评价函数,将多目标优化问题转变成单目标优化问题。以2002年为现状水平年,对安徽省2010年的产业结构及产业规模进行优化分析。结果表明,多目标模型求得的总用水量较单目标模型明显降低,而两模型优化的产业规模与结构差别不大,体现了高用水效率行业优先发展的要求。     

中国商业银行市场结构分析——基于Panzar-Rosse模型

运用Panzar--Rosse模型这一国际上前沿的市场结构判定方法，分析中国商业银行的市场结构，发现其目前正处于垄断竞争状态，垄断性较强。在此基础上本文提出了降低市场准入门槛、改善市场竞争环境的政策措施。