20世纪50-60年代中国人口统计数据存在的问题探讨

关于1959-1961年中国大陆人口死亡规模一直有争议。这种争议往往是对同一来源的数据有不同的解释,很少有人对这一数据的准确程度作分析。事实上,当年的人口统计、人口普查数据均存在一定程度的误差。对这一时期人口死亡规模的估计,应该更多地从人口学专业的角度出发,对当年的基础人口数据重新评估。     

One Approach to Dual Randomness in Life Insurance

Abstract

1. The Unnatural Hypothesis of a Constant Rate of Interest

There are loan contracts which assume a constant interest during several years and thereafter payment of the amount borrowed, but nowadays clauses are as a rule admitted giving the debtor right of conversion or repayment after a certain period, generally ten years. Low interest loans can be considered as perpetuities from a practical point of view, as long as no possibility is meant to exist that the market rate will fall under their nominal rate. Such a loan—as e.g. Consols—with the nominal rate i ₀ ought to be valued at a discount if the market rate is higher, say i > i ₀, the value being equal to the fraction i ₀ : i. But constant rates are no rule in practice.     

城镇居民基本养老保险基金的财政支出与退休年龄的敏感性分析

自1950年以来,中国法定退休年龄与最优退休年龄短期内存在不同步的现象,致使法定退休年龄远低于最优退休年龄。所建模型揭示出人口死亡概率与最优退休年龄的动态经济规律。通过对城镇职工的年龄预测及对其赡养率和缴费率的敏感性分析,认为解决目前财政压力的关键是适当降低养老金替代率和逐步提高退休年龄。     

Reflections of battlefield tourist experiences associated with Vietnam War sites: an analysis of travel blogs

The aim of this paper is to analyse online travel blogs in order to gain an understanding of the reflections held by battlefield tourists in Vietnam. A qualitative approach utilising thematic analysis was conducted on 20 travel blogs. The findings suggest that tourists can have a deeply reflective experience at sites of past warfare, which includes cognitive dissonance to the war narrative. Tourist experiences in Vietnam presented a connection to the dead (mortality mediation) and a connection to the living (local people). These outcomes led to the overall understanding of battlefield experiences in Vietnam: The meaning of life and humanity through connecting with people, and the passing of time through the writing of history.     

Causes of mortality of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) smolts in a restored river and its estuary

During October 2000 to August 2002, the River Skjern Nature Project was implemented by removing dykes and re‐meandering 20.5 km of the lower canalized river. As a consequence the length of the river stretch increased to 23 km. A lake of 250 ha developed in the river valley 5 km upstream from the river mouth because of subsiding soils caused by reclamation and drainage since the 1960s. Using radiotelemetry, the mortality of wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) smolts in the River Skjern and its estuary was investigated prior to and after the implementation of the project. Altogether, 77 Atlantic salmon and 66 brown trout smolts were caught, tagged and released in the river upstream of the restoration project during the spring of 2000 and 2002. The in‐river smolt mortality was more than double in 2002 for both Atlantic salmon and brown trout compared with 2000. This was primarily due to bird predation in 2002 which was not observed in 2000. The in‐river bird predation in 2002 was mediated by the new lake, which quickly became an important bird rest area. Estuarine mortality mainly caused by cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis) differed significantly between species, but was high for both Atlantic salmon (39%) and brown trout (12%) in both years of investigation. The aggregated smolt mortality in the river and in the estuary (48%) may threaten an indigenous self‐sustaining Atlantic salmon population in the River Skjern. When planning river restoration projects, caution should be used, especially where permanently flooded floodplains (lakes) develop due to subsiding soil. In situations where rivers pass directly through newly developed lakes, migratory species such as Atlantic salmon and brown trout may be severely affected due to increased exposure to predation from predatory fish and birds. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MULTIPLICATIVE LOSS OF LANDLOCKED ATLANTIC SALMON Salmo salar L. SMOLTS DURING DOWNSTREAM MIGRATION TROUGH MULTIPLE DAMS

Relatively little is known about the downstream migration of landlocked stocks of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L. smolts, as earlier migration studies have generally focused on upstream migration. However, in watersheds with many hydroelectric plants (HEPs), multiplicative loss of downstream‐migrating salmon smolts can be high, contributing to population declines or extirpations. Here we report the results from a study of wild landlocked Atlantic salmon smolts in the River Klarälven. Salmon smolts, tagged with acoustic transmitters, were released at different locations and followed as they passed 37 receivers along a 180‐km‐long river segment, including eight dams as well as free‐flowing control stretches. We found that 16% of the smolts successfully migrated along the entire river segment. Most losses occurred during HEP passages, with 76% of the smolts being lost during these passages, which contrasts with the 8% smolt loss along unregulated control stretches. Migration speed was 83% slower along regulated stretches than along unregulated stretches. The observed lower migration speed at regulated stretches was dependent on fish size, with large fish moving slower than small fish. Discharge affected migration speed but not losses. As previously shown for anadromous populations, our study of landlocked salmon demonstrates similar negative effects of multiple passages of HEPs by downstream‐migrating smolts. On the basis of this and previous migration studies, we advocate using a holistic approach in the management and conservation of migratory fish in regulated rivers, which includes safe passage for both upstream‐ and downstream‐migrating fish. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Population dynamics of brown trout in a Minnesota (USA) stream: A 25‐year study

Brown trout (Salmo trutta) were surveyed by mark recapture in a 200‐m section of Gilmore Creek, Minnesota, annually during fall 1989–2013 to assess long‐term trends in abundance. Young‐of‐year (YOY) fish comprised >68% of the population annually, but age 3 and older fish were present in 23 of 25 years. Trout abundance varied irregularly, peaking every 4 to 6 years. Fall densities of YOY brown trout were positively correlated with median annual stream discharge but inversely correlated with 10% exceedance discharge in May, at a nearby gaged stream. Changes in brown trout abundances were synchronized with those of trout in 2 nearby streams. Annual mortality rates (mean = 74%) and sizes of YOY trout were correlated with YOY densities, with high densities (>1.0 fish/m²) producing small size during fall and high cohort mortality. High YOY densities resulted in low proportional size structure‐quality (PSS_Q, <20%) 1 and 2 years later. If similar brown trout population dynamics occur in other streams within the region, interpretation of short‐term studies of brown trout (e.g., regulation evaluations, creel surveys, population response to habitat improvement, seasonal movements, and growth rates) may be confounded.     

Growth and population parameters of Nile tilapia,Oreochromis niloticus (L.) in the open waters of Lake Victoria,Kenya

The Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) was introduced into Lake Victoria in the early 1950s and 1960s and has since become the dominant tilapiine in the lake. This study investigated the growth and population parameters of O. niloticus in Lake Victoria on the basis of length–frequency data collected during the period June 2014 and June 2015. The asymptotic length (L_∞) had a mean (±SE) value of 46.24 ± 0.04 cm TL, growth curvature (K) of 0.69 ± 0.25 year^?1, total mortality (Z) of 2.18 ± 0.80 year^?1, a natural mortality (M) of 1.14 ± 0.28 year^?1, a fishing mortality (F) of 1.05 ± 0.53 year^?1, an exploitation rate (E) of 0.46 ± 0.08, a growth performance index (?) of 3.14 ± 0.17 and a length at first capture (L_C50) of 20.31 ± 0.40 cm TL. Comparing the results of this study with previous studies indicates the parameters K, Z and M have increased, whereas ?, F, E and L_C50 have decreased. Changes in these parameters could be attributed to the existing high fishing capacity, and changing lake conditions. Thus, management measures should include continued restriction on illegal fishing methods and gears, such as the use of undersized gillnets (<5 in. mesh size) and beach seines. More attention also should be directed to the implementation of measures to control pollution of the lake from its various sources.     

Population Biology of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) in Lake Naivasha,Kenya

The Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) was introduced into Lake Naivasha to provide exploitable fisheries, being one of the commercially important fish providing livelihoods to communities around the lake. Its stocks in the lake have been declining, however, because of intense fishing, ecological changes and effects of other exotic species. The present study was undertaken to investigate the population and biological parameters of Oreochromis niloticus. Fish samples (1,021) were caught monthly from January to December 2017, collecting a total of 1,021 O. niloticus, with an overall sex ratio of 2.21:1.0 (male: female). The length of the fish ranged from 9.0 to 40.0 cmTL and weighed between 20 and 1,220 g. The mean length and weight for all fish was 22.6 cm and 272.6 g. The slope b of length–weight relationship was 2.86 for all fish, indicating negative allometry. The mean condition factors were 0.99, 1.04 and 1.01 for male, female and all fish, respectively. The length at first maturity (Lm₅₀) was estimated to be 28.0 cmTL for all sexes, indicating the fish matures at smaller sizes. The length at first capture (Lc₅₀) was calculated to be 19.38 cm, a value much lower than its Lm₅₀, reflecting the capture of juvenile fish. The asymptotic length (L∞) was 42 cm, the growth coefficient (K) was 0.21/year, and the growth performance index (Ф) was 2.57. The natural (M), fishing (F) and total mortality (Z) coefficients were estimated to be 0.55, 0.26 and 0.80/year, respectively. The optimum sustainable yield (E_0.5), maximum sustainable yield (E_max) and maximum economic yield (E_0.1) indices of 0.23, 0.35 and 0.26, respectively, imply an optimal exploitation of O. niloticus. The results of the present study provided some important insights into the biology and management needs of the O. niloticus fishery in Lake Naivasha, as well as revealing a gap for further research on its reproductive biology.