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61.
The winds of creative destruction rarely blow more fiercely than in a newly deregulated environment. Managers simultaneously face a novel focus on operating efficiency and an onslaught of new competitors. What must managers do to enable their firms to survive in such an environment? What factors bear on firms’ survival? This paper presents an analysis of mortality of large motor carriers in the U.S. interstate for-hire trucking industry after deregulation. It examines this phenomenon through a multidisciplinary lens that encompasses organizational ecology, neoclassical economics, and transaction cost economics. The paper posits that carrier mortality is a function of both firm-level and industry-level attributes, which are drawn from both ecological and economic theories. While each of these theories separately informs motor carrier mortality, the inclusion of predictions derived from both disciplines in one model significantly increases explanatory power over either theory evaluated alone. The empirical analysis is among the first to show increased mortality when firms do not adhere to operating policies consistent with transaction cost minimization principles. In sum, managers are well advised to adopt a multidisciplinary approach to strategy to ensure their firms’ survival. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
62.
We propose a new parametric model – the generalized excess mortality (GEM) model – for converting excess mortality from clinical to insured population. The GEM model has been formulated as a generalization of the excess death rate (EDR) model in terms of a single adjustment parameter (m) that accounts for a partial elimination of a clinical study’s EDR due to the underwriting selection process. The suggested value of the parameter m depends only on the ratio of the impairment’s prevalence rate in the insured population to that in the clinical population. The model’s development has been implemented in two phases: the design phase and the validation phase. In the design phase, the data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I pertaining to three broad impairments (diabetes, coronary artery disease, and asthma) have been used. As a result, the following equation for the parameter m has been proposed: mk?=?(Pi,k/Pc,k)n, where Pi,k, Pc,k are the prevalence rates of impairment k under study in the insured and the clinical populations, respectively, and n a single universal parameter with its value best approximated as n?=?0.5 (95% confidence interval 0.5–0.6). In the validation phase, several independent clinical studies of three other impairments (Crohn’s disease, epilepsy, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) were used. As it has been demonstrated in the validation phase, for a number of impairments, the GEM model can provide a better fit for observed insured population mortality than either one of the conventional EDR or mortality ratio models. 相似文献
63.
In the first part of the paper, we consider the wide range of extrapolative stochastic mortality models that have been proposed over the last 15–20 years. A number of models that we consider are framed in discrete time and place emphasis on the statistical aspects of modelling and forecasting. We discuss how these models can be evaluated, compared and contrasted. We also discuss a discrete-time market model that facilitates valuation of mortality-linked contracts with embedded options. We then review several approaches to modelling mortality in continuous time. These models tend to be simpler in nature, but make it possible to examine the potential for dynamic hedging of mortality risk. Finally, we review a range of financial instruments (traded and over-the-counter) that could be used to hedge mortality risk. Some of these, such as mortality swaps, already exist, while others anticipate future developments in the market. 相似文献
64.
This paper proposes a simple partial internal model for longevity risk within the Solvency 2 framework. The model is closely linked to the mechanisms associated with the so-called Danish longevity benchmark, where the underlying mortality intensity and the trend is estimated yearly based on mortality experience from the Danish life and pension insurance sector, and on current data from the entire Danish population. Within this model, we derive an estimate for the 99.5% percentile for longevity risk, which differs from the longevity stress of 20% from the standard model. The new stress explicitly reflects the risk associated with unexpected changes in the underlying population mortality intensity on a one-year horizon and with a 99.5% confidence level. In addition, the model contains a component, which quantifies the unsystematic longevity risk associated with a given insurance portfolio. This last component depends on the size of the specific portfolio. 相似文献
65.
Enrico Biffis 《Scandinavian actuarial journal》2013,2013(1):23-41
We discuss the fair valuation of Guaranteed Annuity Options, i.e. options providing the right to convert deferred survival benefits into annuities at fixed conversion rates. The use of doubly stochastic stopping times and of affine processes provides great computational and analytical tractability, while enabling to set up a very general valuation framework. For example, the valuation of options on traditional, unit-linked or indexed annuities is encompassed. Moreover, security and reference fund prices may feature stochastic volatility or discontinuous dynamics. The longevity risk is also taken into account, by letting the evolution of mortality present stochastic dynamics subject not only to random fluctuations but also to systematic deviations. 相似文献
66.
67.
Corinna Hentschker 《Applied economics》2020,52(50):5531-5545
ABSTRACT Medical technological progress has been shown to be the main driver of health care costs. A key policy question is whether new treatment options are worth the additional costs. In this analysis we assess the causal effect of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA), a major new heart attack treatment, on mortality. We use a full sample of administrative hospital data from Germany for the years 2005 to 2007. To account for non-random treatment assignment of PTCA, instrumental variable approaches are implemented that aim to randomize patients into getting PTCA independent of heart attack severity. Instruments include differential distances to PTCA hospitals and regional PTCA rates. Our results suggest a 4.5 absolute percentage point mortality reduction for patients who have access to PTCA compared to patients receiving only conservative treatment. We relate mortality reduction to the additional costs for this treatment and conclude that PTCA treatment is cost-effective in lowering mortality for AMI patients at reasonable cost-effectiveness thresholds. 相似文献
68.
Sushanta K. Mallick 《Review of Income and Wealth》2014,60(4):773-801
This paper attempts to disentangle the poverty effects of key policy variables that directly affect the poor (namely the government‐led channel of development spending and financing) in both agricultural and non‐agricultural sectors after accounting for the effect of respective sectoral per capita income and prices, using data from India over five decades. The paper emphasizes the sectoral composition of income and prices as mechanisms influencing the level of poverty and establishes empirically that it is the rise in non‐agricultural per capita income that reduces rural poverty via the channel of internal migration, after having controlled for the variation in key components of fiscal spending and monetary/financial policy via the availability of credit. Uneven sectoral growth pattern explains why urban poverty becomes a spill‐over of persistent rural poverty when the agricultural sector shrinks. While checking for robustness, there is evidence that the rise in non‐agricultural income alone may not reduce rural poverty, when measured in terms of rural infant mortality rate as a non‐income indicator of well‐being. 相似文献
69.
《Journal of Flood Risk Management》2017,10(1):115-123
This work focuses on the analysis of flood fatalities in Greece, between 1970 and 2010. To this end, the paper develops and studies a systematic record of 151 flood‐related fatalities that occurred across the country during this period. Based on this inventory and detailed incident reports, a database is developed, to examine the temporal, spatial and seasonal distribution of these incidents and the circumstances under which they occur. Analysis indicates that fatalities present a strong seasonality but show no particular temporal trends. Fatal incidents occur mostly during nighttime, outdoors and in rural areas of the country. Vehicle‐related deaths are the most common type of incident, regarding the activity of victims, whereas other outdoor and indoor types of incidents present smaller percentages. Drowning was found to be the most common etiology of death. Males and elderly individuals showed proportionally higher representation, indicating an increased risk of these population groups to flooding. 相似文献
70.
Edwine Yongo Julius Manyala Simon Agembe 《Lakes & Reservoirs: Research and Management》2018,23(3):244-249
This study investigated the growth, mortality and recruitment of Rastrineobola argentea in Lake Victoria on the basis of length–frequency data collected during the period 2014–2015. The asymptotic length (L ∞ ) had a mean (±SE ) value of 53.50 ± 0.50 mm SL , growth curvature (K ) of 0.81 ± 0.06 year?1, total mortality (Z ) of 2.96 ± 0.12 year?1, a natural mortality (M ) of 1.23 ± 0.06 year?1, a fishing mortality (F ) of 1.74 ± 0.07 year?1, an exploitation rate (E ) of 0.59 ± 0.01, a growth performance index (?′ ) of 3.36 ± 0.02 and a length at 50% capture (L 50) of 28.25 ± 0.43 mm SL . The fish exhibited a peak breeding during the months of May and August. The Beverton and Holt relative yield‐per‐recruit model indicated mean (±SE ) indices as 0.37 ± 0.01 for optimum sustainable yield (E 0.5), 0.76 ± 0.01 for maximum sustainable yield (E max) and 0.66 ± 0.01 for economic yield (E 0.1). Compared with previous studies, there is a great decline in the sizes of R. argentea stocks in Lake Victoria. Thus, management measures should include restriction on illegal seine nets <10 mm mesh size and re‐enforcement of a fishing ban or a closed season. 相似文献