水资源适应性利用理论及其在治水实践中的应用前景

水系统受气候变化和人类活动的影响,一直在不断地变化,因此水资源的开发利用也应适应这种变化,而不能按照固定的控制阈值或约束条件来进行。当然,也不是被动的、随意的去适应。在对水系统及其与环境变化关系剖析的基础上,分析了水资源适应性利用的原理与模式;基于对环境变化下水资源适应性利用机理的认识,提出水资源适应性利用理论的框架体系,阐述了其基本理念和关键内容;基于对我国现代治水实践的分析,分析了其暗含的水资源适应性利用理论的内容,以及我国治水实践中存在的问题及应用水资源适应性利用理论解决这些问题的可能途径。研究认为,水资源适应性利用理论对水资源合理开发、综合利用、科学管理具有重要的指导作用,为环境变化下水资源利用研究与实践奠定理论基础。     

考虑土体强度参数深度依赖性的非平稳随机场边坡滑动深度和体积分析

基于随机有限元方法（RFEM）和Monte-Carlo模拟,建立了能够模拟具有深度依赖性的土体强度参数边坡或具有软弱夹层边坡的非平稳随机场模型。通过辐射扫描方法获取最危险滑动面,得到非平稳随机场边坡滑动深度和滑动体积。将该方法与均质边坡和平稳随机场边坡获得的滑动深度和滑动体积进行对比,研究土体强度参数深度依赖性的非平稳随机场边坡的不同坡度和各向异性对滑动深度和滑动体积的影响。结果表明：基于RFEM的非平稳随机场滑动深度和滑动体积结果为地质灾害风险及后果评估提供了一个参考分析的新角度;参数的深度依赖性程度越高(变化率b越大),则边坡平均滑动深度和滑动体积越小;在大坡度滑坡风险后果评估中,可以基于均质边坡分析结果进行初步预估;在非平稳随机场中,随着各向异性的增大,所有坡度边坡的滑动体积变异系数增大;不同坡度下,水平方向的相关程度越大,则土坡内软弱夹层的不确定性越强,滑动体积的变异系数也不断增大。     

短程硝化-强化生物除磷序批式反应器处理畜禽养殖废水

畜禽养殖废水有机物水质水量变化大,有机物、氨氮与磷的浓度较高,直接排放会严重危害环境。通过构建厌氧-好氧序批式反应器（SBR）处理预酸化畜禽养殖废水,分析了不同进水负荷条件下反应器对污染物的去除性能和微生物群落结构的变化规律。结果表明：SBR反应器对高负荷进水中TN、PO^3-₄—P和COD的平均去除率可分别达到64.5%、97.5%和94.5%。反应器出现NH⁺₄—N和NO₂—N亚硝酸同时积累的短程硝化现象,这可能与高进水负荷对氨氧化菌和亚硝酸盐氧化菌的活性和种群的影响有关。与乙酸盐相比,以丙酸盐作碳源时污泥的强化生物除磷活性更高。随着进水负荷的增大,聚糖菌（GAOs）的相对丰度明显升高。四联球状菌（Tetrasphaera）为反应器中始终占优势的聚磷菌（PAOs）,对反应器除磷性能有重要贡献。在高有机负荷条件下,SBR内PAOs与GAOs之间不存在明显的底物竞争关系,系统脱氮除磷性能未受影响。     

A modified NRCS-CN method for eliminating abrupt runoff changes induced by the categorical antecedent moisture conditions

The popular Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number (NRCS-CN) (earlier known as Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method of rainfall-runoff modeling has often faced the criticism of exhibiting quantum jumps in runoff computations because of the sudden jumps appearing in CN-values derived from NEH-4 tables for three antecedent moisture conditions (AMC), viz., AMC-I, AMC-II, and AMC-III valid for dry, normal, and wet conditions, respectively. The variability of antecedent soil moisture within an AMC category is responsible for the abrupt jump and other deficiencies in the CN method for runoff estimation. This paper suggests a novel procedure to account for the antecedent moisture (M), preventing quantum jumps and eliminating deficiencies in determination of CN and, in turn, estimation of direct runoff. Its validity was verified utilizing the observed rainfall (P)-runoff (Q) events from 36 US watersheds, four sub-catchments of the Godavari basin, and small agricultural plots at Roorkee, India. The performance of the proposed model (M5) for runoff prediction was compared with the existing NRCS-CN (M1), Mishra and Singh (2002) (M2), Singh et al. (2015) (M3), and Verma et al. (2021) (M4) model using various performance indices. Using the CNs derived from observed events, model M5 was seen to have performed better than M1-M4 in terms of Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Percent Bias (PBIAS) for the data of US watersheds, and CN-P correlation improved as the coefficient of determination (R²) enhanced. Similarly, using the RS & GIS-based CNs on natural watersheds of the Godavari basin and considering AMC-I, the performance of M5 was again better than M1-M4 in terms of RMSE, Mean Bias Error (mBIAS), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Normalized-Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NNSE). Interestingly, there existed a significant (p < 0.05) relationship between the in-situ water content (w) measured for the experimental plots of Roorkee and the model input variable antecedent moisture (M), offering a physical touch to the conceptual model.     

基于适宜性的西安市水源热泵开发潜力评估

依据适宜性评价,综合考虑水质、回灌率、已运行情况以及环境条件对水源热泵开发的影响,对西安市水源热泵开发利用潜力进行评估。结果表明:西安市适宜性面积占研究区总面积31.52%;将西安市水源热泵开发潜力划分为5类潜力类型区:Ⅰ、Ⅱ类潜力区主要分布于西安市北部,以平原为主,为开发潜力优、良区;Ⅲ类潜力区主要分布于临潼中部、阎良东部、长安南部、户县和周至南部等地,为适度开发潜力区;Ⅳ类潜力区主要分布于蓝田西南、临潼南部以及长安丘陵区,为不宜开发潜力区;Ⅴ类地区为秦岭山地和禁采区,应限制水源热泵的开发利用。研究可确定西安市不同地域的水源热泵开发利用潜力,研究结果可为编制西安市水源热泵开发规划提供参考。     

温度影响下压实红粘土持水特性研究

通过渗析法和水汽平衡法研究不同温度控制下干密度1.7 g/cm~3压实红粘土持水特性(SWRC:soil water retention characteristics)。试验结果表明:20℃下干密度1.7 g/cm~3压实红粘土进气值约为110 k Pa;试样控制的温度越高,压实红粘土样持水能力越低,土样进气值随着温度升高而减小,且呈线性关系;Van Genuchten(1980年)土水特征模型能很好的描述干密度1.7 g/cm~3压实红粘土持水特性曲线。     

严寒地区大型倒虹吸工程管道应力及水力安全控制

新疆北疆供水工程跨越吉拉沟大洼槽的三个泉倒虹吸,跨度11 km,内径2.8 m,工作水头160m,是国内外同类工程中综合难度较高的大型倒虹吸工程,在结构强度、材料工艺、安装敷设、工程质量方面都有极高的要求,特别是高水头管道运行、充水、放空、水锤防护等各种工况下的水力安全控制问题,高温差与严寒条件下管道的应力应变问题尤为突出。对该工程设计、科研、施工及运行管理方面的经验进行介绍,对其在新技术、新材料、新工艺等方面取得的理论研究和技术创新成果进行总结,研究认为:工程总体布置合理,工程运行后监测资料及工程安全评价表明各项性状指标良好,通过模型试验研究确定的闸门开度、关闭速率、充水排气、放空排水等水力安全控制关键技术科学合理,为严寒地区大型倒虹吸工程的技术发展提供借鉴。     

等强条件下橡胶微粒混凝土抗压特性及弹性模量研究

掺加橡胶微粒可以明显改善混凝土的力学特性。采用橡胶微粒等体积取代细骨料的方法,通过不断调整配合比,反复试验配制出橡胶微粒体积掺量分别为0%、10%和15%的等强度(30 MPa)橡胶微粒混凝土,探讨橡胶微粒混凝土的抗压强度变化规律,以及在等强条件下不同橡胶微粒掺量对混凝土弹性模量的影响。结果表明:掺入橡胶后,混凝土的前期强度(3 d和7 d)发展较基准混凝土变缓,7 d以及14 d后强度出现较大幅度的增长,28 d后各个配比混凝土立方体抗压强度增幅不大;掺入一定量的橡胶后,混凝土的抗裂性能得到了一定程度的改善,橡胶微粒体积掺量越大,试件受压破坏后的完整性越好;掺入橡胶后,混凝土的弹性模量呈现出近乎线性的大幅下降趋势。     

Variability of light absorption properties in optically complex inland waters of Lake Chaohu,China

Absorption coefficients of phytoplankton, colored detrital matter (CDM), non-algal particles (NAP), colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), and their relative contributions to total non-water absorption (a_t ? w) are essential variables for bio-optical and radiative transfer models. Light absorption properties showed large range and variability sampled at 194 stations throughout Lake Chaohu between May 2013 and April 2015. The a_t ? w was dominated by phytoplankton absorption (a_ph) and NAP absorption (a_d). The contribution of CDOM absorption to a_t ? w was lower than 30%. Phytoplankton and NAP were the primary sources of spatial and vertical variability in absorption properties. Light absorption by CDOM, though significant in magnitude, was relatively constant. CDM absorption (a_dg) was dominated by NAP. The spatial variation of the absorption coefficients from each of the optically active constituents were driven by several main inflow rivers in the western and middle part of Lake Chaohu. Algal blooms and bottom resuspension contributed to vertical variability as observed by phytoplankton and NAP profiles. Specific absorption of phytoplankton had significant spatial and seasonal variations without vertical variation. The spectral slope of absorption showed no significant spatial variability (p > 0.05). Variations of absorption affected different ranges of remote sensing reflectance (R_rs) spectrum, thereby increasing the difficulty of applying the remote sensing algorithm in optically complex waters. Parameters and relationships presented in this study provide useful information for bio-optical models and remote sensing of lakes similar to Lake Chaohu in terms of optical properties.     

基于k-最近邻筛选的BMA集合预报模型研究

针对冗余训练样本会降低BMA参数求解效率与精度问题,本文提出在BMA运算之前采用k-最近邻(k-nearest neighbor)算法筛选有价值训练样本,并用于BMA参数求解的改进模型。模拟试验在淮河王家坝站进行,分别以k-最近邻筛选、不筛选两种方案为BMA提供训练样本,统计分析两种方案中王家坝站流量模拟结果,评价BMA改进法的性能。模拟结果显示,采用k-最近邻样本筛选方法后,BMA模型对洪水过程以及洪峰的预报精度提升明显;概率预报结果的离散程度降低的同时,可靠性程度获得提升。k-最近邻样本筛选方法的引入,能够有效去除BMA模型训练样本中的冗余数据,以少量的样本获得更可靠的模型参数,改善集合预报性能。