The contribution of human capital to a holistic response to climate change: learning from and for the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

Abstract

The Mekong Delta has been identified by the International Panel on Climate Change as one of the three most vulnerable areas in the world as sea levels rise due to climate change. The Vietnam Government has implemented a range of policies to assist migration in order to address these environmental problems. While much research has focused on the environmental causes of, and responses to, climate change there has been less research on the impact of environmentally motivated responses to climate change on labour force and human capital factors. This paper examines the experience of the Vietnam Government in encouraging internal migration from vulnerable agricultural areas to urban industrial cities, to explore the human capital effects of these environmentally motivated response to climate change. The paper first presents the environmental argument for migration in response to climate change, together with examples of what the Vietnam Government has done to encourage migration from the rural (originating) areas to other rural resettlement and city (receiving) areas. It then uses data collected as part of recent study into the impact of government encouragement for internal migration to explore the labour force and human capital impacts in both the originating region and receiving areas. The findings suggest that while there are social and economic advantages there are challenges, including ensuring that job opportunities are available, migrants and appropriate skills, and that labour contracts provide for job security and healthy and safe working result in improved living conditions. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a more integrated approach that acknowledges and addresses associated human capital (skills upgrading) and business development needs and integrates these with environmentally-motivated policies.     

Faustmann and the climate

The paper presents an adjusted Faustmann Rule for optimal harvest of a forest when there is a social cost of carbon emissions. The theoretical framework takes account of the dynamics and interactions of forests’ multiple carbon pools and assumes an infinite time horizon. Our paper provides a theoretical foundation for numerical model studies that have found that a social cost of carbon implies longer optimal rotation periods and that if the social cost of carbon exceeds a certain threshold value the forest should not be harvested. At the same time we show that it could be a net social benefit from harvesting even if the commercial profit from harvest is negative. If that is the case, the optimal harvest age is decreasing in the social cost of carbon.     

Lake Urmia restoration success story: A natural trend or a planned remedy?

Lake Urmia is the second-largest hypersaline lake in the world. There has been a drastic water level drop of 7.2 m from 1995 to 2016. Beginning in October 2013, the Lake Urmia Restoration Plan (LURP) launched a 10-year program. An increase in water level and a relative improvement in Lake Urmia condition has been observed since 2017. It is an undecided and controversial issue whether the recent positive trend of Lake Urmia has been due to the LURP activities or it is a natural contribution of climate factors variations. To shed some light on this issue, we examine three other lakes, adjacent to the Lake Urmia basin, with similar rainfall variability to investigate their status during the same period. Van (Turkey), Mosul, and Tharthar (both in Iraq), are evaluated as well as Lake Urmia. Three decades of remotely sensed data including precipitation ($P$), water level ($\mathit{WL}$), and lake extent ($A$) were considered for the mentioned lakes. A significant correlation was observed between standardized $\mathit{WL}-P$, and $A-P$ over the long-term period, especially for the recent three years ($R$² = 0.63–0.87). We show that the cumulative precipitation in the antecedent months played a major role in the improvement of these lakes' situation but with different time lags (up to 6 months for Van and Mosul lakes and up to 36 months for Lake Urmia and Tharthar lake). These findings could inform the planners of LURP to adopt strategies for achieving a sustainable state of Lake Urmia based on a more realistic outlook.     

Developing farm-specific marginal abatement cost curves: Cost-effective greenhouse gas mitigation opportunities in sheep farming systems

Growing demand for agricultural produce, coupled with ambitious targets for greenhouse gas emissions reduction present the scientific, policy and agricultural sectors with a substantial mitigation challenge. Identification and implementation of suitable mitigation measures is driven by both the measures’ effectiveness and cost of implementation. Marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) provide a simple graphical representation of the abatement potential and cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures to aid policy decision-making. Accounting for heterogeneity in farm conditions and subsequent abatement potentials in mitigation policy is problematic, and may be aided by the development of tailored MACCs. Robust MACC development is currently lacking for mitigation measures appropriate to sheep systems. This study constructed farm-specific MACCs for a lowland, upland and hill sheep farm in the UK. The stand-alone mitigation potential of six measures was modelled, against real farm baselines, according to assumed impacts on emissions and productivity. The MACCs revealed the potential for negative cost emissions’ abatement in the sheep industry. Improving ewe nutrition to increase lamb survival offered considerable abatement potential at a negative cost to the farmers across all farms while, lambing as yearlings offered negative cost abatement potential on lowland and upland farms. The results broadly advocate maximising lamb output from existing inputs on all farm categories, and highlight the importance of productivity and efficiency as influential drivers of emissions abatement in the sector. The abatement potentials and marginal costs of other measures (e.g. reducing mineral fertiliser use and selecting pasture plants bred to minimise dietary nitrogen losses) varied between farms, and this heterogeneity was more frequently attributable to differences in individual farm management than land classification. This has important implications for the high level policy sector as no two farms are likely to benefit from a generic one size fits all approach to mitigation. The construction of further case-study farm MACCs under varying farm conditions is required to define the biophysical and management conditions that each measure is most suited to, generating a more tailored set of sector-specific mitigation parameters.     

Voting on prices vs. voting on quantities in a World Climate Assembly

This paper posits the conceptually useful allegory of a futuristic “World Climate Assembly” that votes on global carbon emissions via the basic principle of majority rule. Two variants are considered. One is to vote on a universal price (or tax) that is internationally harmonized, but the proceeds from which are domestically retained. The other is to vote on the overall quantity of total worldwide emissions, which are then distributed for free (via a pre-decided fractional subdivision formula) as individual allowance permits that are subsequently marketed in an international cap-and-trade system. The model of the paper suggests that the majority-voted price is likely to be less distortionary and easier to enact than the majority-voted total quantity of permits. Some possible implications for climate-change negotiations are noted.     

The impact of climate and price risks on agricultural land use and crop management decisions

This article aims to investigate the impacts of climate change and of lower and more volatile crop price levels as currently observed in the European Union (EU) on optimal management decisions, average income and income risks in crop production in Western Switzerland. To this end, a bioeconomic whole-farm model has been developed that non-parametrically combines the crop growth model CropSyst with an economic decision model using a genetic algorithm. The analysis focuses on the farm level, which enables us to integrate a wide set of potential adaptation responses, comprising changes in agricultural land use as well as crop-specific fertilization and irrigation strategies. Furthermore, the farmer's certainty equivalent is employed as objective function, which enables the consideration of not only impacts on average income but also impacts on income variability.The study shows that that the effects of EU crop prices on the optimal management decisions as well as on the farmer's certainty equivalent are much stronger than the effects of climate change. Furthermore, our results indicate that the impacts of income risks on the crop farm's optimal management schemes are of rather low importance. This is due to two major reasons: first, direct payments make up a large percentage of the agricultural income in Switzerland which makes Swiss farmers less vulnerable to market and climate volatility. Second, arable crop farms in Switzerland have by law to cultivate at least four different crops. Due to these diverse cropping systems and high government direct payments risk does neither under climate change, market liberalization nor combinations thereof, play a very decisive role in arable farming in Switzerland.     

化石能源耗竭与气候变化约束下的经济低碳转型

本文构建了一个包含产品生产、技术研发、新能源生产和温室气体减排四个部门的内生增长模型;并运用最优控制理论,研究了在化石能源耗竭与气候变化约束下,经济低碳转型中的一系列关键变量的长期行为方式和中短期平衡增长路径;进而刻画了劳动力在各部门间的配置和转移、化石能源价格、排放空间价格对能源结构、碳强度、消费、单位劳动碳减排量、单位劳动产出等变量的影响机制;同时揭示了运用一些政策工具实现经济低碳转型的时机选择。