Predictive regressions under asymmetric loss: Factor augmentation and model selection

This paper discusses the specifics of forecasting using factor-augmented predictive regressions under general loss functions. In line with the literature, we employ principal component analysis to extract factors from the set of predictors. In addition, we also extract information on the volatility of the series to be predicted, since the volatility is forecast-relevant under non-quadratic loss functions. We ensure asymptotic unbiasedness of the forecasts under the relevant loss by estimating the predictive regression through the minimization of the in-sample average loss. Finally, we select the most promising predictors for the series to be forecast by employing an information criterion that is tailored to the relevant loss. Using a large monthly data set for the US economy, we assess the proposed adjustments in a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise for various variables. As expected, the use of estimation under the relevant loss is found to be effective. Using an additional volatility proxy as the predictor and conducting model selection that is tailored to the relevant loss function enhances the forecast performance significantly.     

Cox Point Processes: Why One Realisation Is Not Enough

We review a rich class of point process models, Cox point processes, and illustrate the necessity of more than one observation (point patterns) in performing parameter estimation. Furthermore, we introduce a new Cox point process model by treating the intensity function of the underlying Poisson point process as a random mixture of normal components. The behaviour and performance of the new model are compared with those of popular Cox point process models. The new model is exemplified with an application that involves a single point pattern corresponding to earthquake events in California, USA.     

CONTINUOUS PREFERENCE ORDERINGS REPRESENTABLE BY UTILITY FUNCTIONS

This paper surveys the conditions under which it is possible to represent a continuous preference ordering using utility functions. We start with a historical perspective on the notions of utility and preferences, continue by defining the mathematical concepts employed in this literature, and then list several key contributions to the topic of representability. These contributions concern both the preference orderings and the spaces where they are defined. For any continuous preference ordering, we show the need for separability and the sufficiency of connectedness and separability, or second countability, of the space where it is defined. We emphasize the need for separability by showing that in any nonseparable metric space, there are continuous preference orderings without utility representation. However, by reinforcing connectedness, we show that countably boundedness of the preference ordering is a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a (continuous) utility representation. Finally, we discuss the special case of strictly monotonic preferences.     

城市规划设计中的街道家具

认为当前国内城市规划和设计中,忽视了城市公共空间服务于人类生活品质的终极目标。论述了街道家具在城市公共空间中的功能和相应的设计原则,指出以人为本是其设计的基本准则,阐述了国内街道家具的现状,并借鉴日本的经验展望国内街道家具的发展趋势。     

GARCH-MIDAS-GAS-copula model for CoVaR and risk spillover in stock markets

This study proposes a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-mixed data sampling (MIDAS)-generalized autoregressive score (GAS)-copula model to calculate conditional value at risk (CoVaR). Our approach leverages the GARCH-MIDAS model to enhance stock market volatility modeling and incorporates the GAS mechanism to create a copula with dynamic parameters. This approach allows for the precise calculation of both CoVaR and its changes over time (delta CoVaR). The results of our study demonstrate a significant improvement in CoVaR calculation accuracy compared to other models, showcasing the effectiveness of the GARCH-MIDAS-GAS-copula model. In addition, the CoVaR indicator provides a more comprehensive view of risk spillover relationships compared to value at risk (VaR), offering deeper insights into the asymmetrical risk transmission dynamics between the Chinese and US stock markets, providing valuable information for risk management and investment decisions.     

利用气井历史生产数据计算动态储量新方法

气藏动态储量是指参与渗流的地下气体地质储量,计算动储量常采用物质平衡法,但是对于难以获得平均地层压力的致密气藏不适用。本文介绍了利用气井长时间生产数据计算动态储量的方法,并研究采用叠加时间函数(Super-t)分析变产量修正时间,使计算结果更加精确;同时应用该方法对苏东南区致密砂岩气藏部分气井进行单井动态储量计算,为该区动储量估算提供借鉴。     

国家审计理论的几个基本问题研究——基于多学科的视角

国家审计是国家治理的基石与保障,国家审计体现了国家政治意志,国家政治、经济和文化的发展又调整着国家审计的功能和边界。基于多学科视角探讨国家治理与国家审计的协同关系,揭示国家审计的哲学本质与政治功能,理清国家审计的经济边界,分析国家审计的法治建设与文化建构等基本问题,构建国家审计基础理论的分析框架,认为国家审计可以通过提升组织的设计与管理、政治制度的设计、合法化的基础及文化与社会等要素来改进国家治理。     

可持续发展及西部大开发背景条件下欠发达地区县域经济发展思路探讨——以贵州省息烽县县域经济与产业规划发展思路分析为例

从西部地区省份在我国特殊生态功能的角度出发,以贵州省的息烽县为例,对其经济发展的薄弱现状和息烽县所处的生态屏障的地位入手,根据国家宏观调控政策对西部地区县域产业及经济发展的相关规定,明确息烽县经济发展的功能定位,确立了息烽县县域经济与产业规划发展的基本思路,指出了生态功能的优先考虑的地位,为西部省份其他地区的县域经济发展提供参考与借鉴。     

试析台湾高等教育对其经济的促进作用

本文论述了台湾高等教育和其战后经济的发展历程,并对台湾高等教育与经济发展的相互关系进行了探讨,提出台湾高等教育对其经济发展的四方面促进作用。     

浅谈结构选型与建筑使用功能、经济造价的关系

结构选型与建筑使用功能、经济造价有很大的关系,有时结构选型受建筑使用功能的影响,有时结构选型决定经济造价。在业主对建筑使用功能的要求下进行结构选型,经济造价提高是解决不了的矛盾,最优的结构型选及其设计应是结构设计人员必上的一课。